Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matador, TX
May 20, 2024 12:11 AM CDT (05:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:39 AM Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 5:14 PM Moonset 3:47 AM |
FXUS64 KLUB 192331 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 631 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
The current thinking for the forecast for the remainder of the afternoon has not changed from the previous shift. Although a strong dryline exists in the eastern Rolling Plains, temperatures aloft will likely be too warm for any severe convection in the FA. Large scale lift with the approaching short wave will be too far north to provide any meaningful lift locally. A few radar echoes may form around the Childress area but are not expected to persist. The dryline will attempt to retreat to the west overnight as the boundary layer decouples but will run into a surface trough being dragged through the area from a surface low moving eastward across the Texas Panhandle. Therefore, areas off the caprock will see warm overnight temperatures due to higher dew points remaining in place.
Upper level short wave ridging will expand over the area on Monday with temperatures remaining roughly the same as today. Triple digits are likely off the caprock with upper 90s on the caprock.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
An upper shortwave will help to lower thicknesses on Tuesday which will help to cool highs by a few degrees. A more significant cool down will come Wednesday as the upper trough pushes into the Northern Plains and pushes a cold front through the region early Wednesday morning. Temps will quickly warm back into the 90s Thursday as surface flow returns to the southeast ahead of a dryline. Convection remains possible Thursday afternoon/evening across the Rolling Plains as the dryline pushes through the region.
The ECMWF has backed off considerably in regard to convective chances Thursday with most activity remaining east of the FA. The GFS still keeps convective initiation across the Rolling Plains but is also trending further east. If storms do develop, they could be strong to severe with large hail and strong winds being the primary threats. Upper flow will become quasi-zonal late week into the weekend. Models are in agreement with a weak passive front pushing into the FA Saturday, but the highly modified airmass will do little in dropping temps.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period.
LLWS is expected to develop after midnight at KCDS as southwest surface winds begin to diminish.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 631 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
The current thinking for the forecast for the remainder of the afternoon has not changed from the previous shift. Although a strong dryline exists in the eastern Rolling Plains, temperatures aloft will likely be too warm for any severe convection in the FA. Large scale lift with the approaching short wave will be too far north to provide any meaningful lift locally. A few radar echoes may form around the Childress area but are not expected to persist. The dryline will attempt to retreat to the west overnight as the boundary layer decouples but will run into a surface trough being dragged through the area from a surface low moving eastward across the Texas Panhandle. Therefore, areas off the caprock will see warm overnight temperatures due to higher dew points remaining in place.
Upper level short wave ridging will expand over the area on Monday with temperatures remaining roughly the same as today. Triple digits are likely off the caprock with upper 90s on the caprock.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
An upper shortwave will help to lower thicknesses on Tuesday which will help to cool highs by a few degrees. A more significant cool down will come Wednesday as the upper trough pushes into the Northern Plains and pushes a cold front through the region early Wednesday morning. Temps will quickly warm back into the 90s Thursday as surface flow returns to the southeast ahead of a dryline. Convection remains possible Thursday afternoon/evening across the Rolling Plains as the dryline pushes through the region.
The ECMWF has backed off considerably in regard to convective chances Thursday with most activity remaining east of the FA. The GFS still keeps convective initiation across the Rolling Plains but is also trending further east. If storms do develop, they could be strong to severe with large hail and strong winds being the primary threats. Upper flow will become quasi-zonal late week into the weekend. Models are in agreement with a weak passive front pushing into the FA Saturday, but the highly modified airmass will do little in dropping temps.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period.
LLWS is expected to develop after midnight at KCDS as southwest surface winds begin to diminish.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Lubbock, TX,
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