Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oxnard, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:18PM Thursday October 19, 2017 7:21 AM PDT (14:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:53AMMoonset 6:40PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 226 Am Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..Western portion, W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 4 ft dominant period 7 seconds.
Tonight..Western portion, W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Patchy drizzle after midnight.
Fri..W to nw winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy drizzle in the morning.
Fri night..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 35 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 17 seconds.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft at 15 seconds in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
PZZ600 226 Am Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 2 am pdt...a 1021 mb high was located 600 nm west of point conception and a 1008 mb thermal low was near las vegas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxnard, CA
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location: 34.23, -119.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 191128
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
428 am pdt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
An upper-level trough of low pressure will brush the area through
Friday night. Showers could develop over the mountains and along
the central coast tonight through Friday. Winds will increase
through Friday night as a weak cold front moves over the region,
then santa ana winds will likely develop between Saturday and
Sunday. A significant warming trend is expected for early next
week. Record heat is forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

Short term (tdy-sat)
the latest infrared satellite imagery indicates a weak
disturbance near 30n and 130w. The disturbance will increase
moisture across the area through Friday, while the disturbance
phases with a digging trough of low pressure currently near 40n
and 140w. Fog product imagery shows a marine layer stratus deck
becoming well entrenched along the central coast and offshore.

Some organization is starting to develop with stratus over
southern los angeles county and into the san pedro channel. A
more developed marine layer stratus deck should occur through
Friday as the trough's cold front approaches the area.

With the increasing moisture ahead of the front, shower activity
cannot be ruled out for the central coast and interior portions
of the area, including the north slopes of the transverse
mountains. Pops have been increased across the area to add a
slight chance of showers for the areas mentioned above. The best
chance of showers will be along the northern slopes of the
mountains. QPF amounts will be light and highly variable. Mainly
trace amounts to a few hundredths is possible tonight and into
Friday. Instability with the trough will also bring the possibilty
of night through morning drizzle tonight through Friday for the
coastal and valley areas across southern california.

Winds will be increasing across the area on Friday and Friday
night as the surface pressure gradient tightens with the
weakening cold front. A wind advisory may be needed for the
central coast and the san luis obispo county and antelope valleys
on Friday and Friday evening. Patchy blowing dust will be a threat
for the antelope valley.

Gusty sundowner winds will likely develop on Friday night along
with northerly winds through the interstate 5 corridor. Nam-wrf
solutions indicate ksba-kbfl and klax-kbfl surface pressure
gradients approaching -6 mb late Friday evening, possibly
tightening a bit more after midnight. A wind advisory may be
issued when the timing and finer details become a bit more
certain.

Northerly winds will likely linger into Saturday morning, then
diminishing some. A cold air mass will start to settle into the
great basin between Saturday and Monday setting up offshore flow
across the region.

Long term (sun-wed)
surface high pressure will develop in the great basin over the
weekend and into early next week, while a thermal trough low
pressure develops along the california coast. An offshore flow
regime will develop as a santa ana weather pattern sets up over
southern california. Wind advisory level winds look to develop
between Saturday night and Sunday, and possibly again Sunday night
and Monday. A perfect set up of offshore flow with strong ridging
aloft will likely bring record heat to much of the region on
Monday and Tuesday. Santa ana winds along with hot and dry
conditions will likely bring periods of critical fire weather
conditions to the region early next week. Many locations including
the coastal areas will be in the 90s to around 105 on Monday and
Tuesday. A mixture of headlines could be in play for Monday (and
maybe Tuesday) as heat advisories excessive heat warnings may be
needed along with wind advisories and fire weather warnings.

Offshore flow should break down for mid-to-late week next week.

Medium range models hint at the possibility of a weak weather
system approaching the region from the northwest. The best chance
of cooling looks to occur for Thursday and Friday next week.

Aviation 19 1125z...

at 1115z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 2200 feet. The
top of the inversion was 3800 feet with a temperature of 21
degrees celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12z taf. Currently, ifr CIGS are
impacting the central coast with MVFR conditions across the lax
coast. Expect these clouds to dissipate later this morning with
vfr conditions for all areas this afternoon. For tonight, weak
front will sweep across the area, generating widespread MVFR cigs
across the coasts and valleys with some light showers north of
point conception. Confidence in timing of development of MVFR cigs
tonight is low.

Klax... Moderate confidence in 12z taf. MVFR CIGS may dissipate as
early as 14z. For tonight, high confidence in return of MVFR cigs,
but low confidence in timing (+ - 3 hours of current 04z
forecast).

Kbur... Moderate confidence in 12z taf. High confidence in return
of MVFR CIGS tonight, but low confidence in timing (+ - 3 hours of
current 06z forecast).

Marine 19 145 am...

for the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small
craft advisory (sca) level winds will continue through Sunday and
possibly into Monday. There is a 50% chance of gale force winds
Friday afternoon through Friday night.

For the inner waters, moderate confidence current forecast. For
the waters north of point sal, there is a 20% chance of SCA level
winds this afternoon evening then a 60% chance of SCA level wind
each afternoon evening from Friday through Sunday. For the waters
south of point conception, SCA level winds are likely from this
afternoon through Friday night, especially across western sections
of the southern inner waters.

A large storm off western canada will generate 40 foot seas in
that area. This will produce a large long-period NW swell, moving
into our waters by Friday. Seas up to 15 feet are likely, with 20
foot seas possible across the outer and northern waters. There
will likely be dangerous breaking waves on the central coast
through the weekend with dangerous conditions in near harbors.

South of point conception... The westerly swell will approach high
surf criteria.

Beaches 19 145 am...

central coast... A significant storm system in the gulf of mexico
has caused large swells to develop. These large northwest swells
will approach the central coast by Friday morning. A high surf
advisory has been issued valid for the central coast Friday
morning through Sunday morning. Surf will quickly rise to around
10 to 12 feet initially Friday mid morning. By Friday evening
through early Saturday, surf should increase to between 14 and 20
feet. Surf will then begin to lower through Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning, but remain above 10 feet. Some impacts from
these large and powerful waves and strong currents would be the
risk of ocean drowning. Also sneaker waves can suddenly overrun
previously dry beaches and jetties. With surf approaching 20 feet,
some low lying beach parking lots, harbor walkways and
campgrounds could see local coastal flooding during the peak of
the highest surf.

South of point conception...

a fairly significant long period south swell will continue to
move across coastal waters through this afternoon and evening,
bringing elevated surf between 3 and 6 feet for south facing
beaches. However, gusty west winds are forecast to develop across
the ventura coast and the short period wind waves could pile up to
the surf zone causing local sets to 7 feet this afternoon and
evening. There is high confidence of strong rip currents during
this period. A beach hazards statement remains in effect through
this evening.

The large northwest swell forecast to bring very large surf to the
central coast should filter some of the energy into the southern
california bight allowing for higher surf potential by this
weekend. Confidence is high at least another beach hazards
statement will be needed or possibly a high surf advisory if surf
is expected to be higher. Will continue to monitor the situation.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect from 6 am Friday to noon pdt
Sunday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect through this evening for
zones 40-41. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 3
am pdt Friday for zones 650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale watch in effect from Friday afternoon through late
Friday night for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt Friday for
zones 673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
hot temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions are
expected Sunday into early next week as another santa ana wind
event develops. Record heat is possible for Monday and Tuesday.

High surf and strong rip currents will linger along central coast
beaches Sunday.

Public... Hall
aviation... Rat
marine... Rat
beaches... Kaplan rat
synopsis... Hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 11 mi52 min 65°F5 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 27 mi52 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 61°F 1012.4 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 33 mi42 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 66°F1012.7 hPa57°F
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 35 mi42 min N 3.9 G 5.8 69°F1011.9 hPa
46251 36 mi61 min 67°F6 ft
46262 38 mi52 min 70°F5 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 41 mi52 min 67°F5 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 42 mi52 min ENE 4.1 G 6 66°F 68°F1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA3 mi31 minNE 57.00 miFair54°F52°F93%1012.3 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA8 mi27 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist55°F52°F90%1013.2 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA10 mi26 minNNE 37.00 miA Few Clouds55°F51°F87%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE5SW3SW3SW8W15W12W12W12W11W8W7CalmCalmNE3S3NE5E3CalmCalmE4NE4NE5NE5
1 day agoNW3E73W7W13W8W13W12W9W8CalmW3CalmCalmNE5SW3N4CalmE3E4CalmSW4NE4NE3
2 days agoN7N6N5W7W8W12W13W12W10W11W11W4CalmW3W3NW6NW4N4W3NW3CalmNW4N4NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:34 AM PDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:39 AM PDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:13 PM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:13 PM PDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.41.50.90.81.42.53.74.95.65.85.24.22.91.60.60.20.41.12.33.44.44.84.6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:31 AM PDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:40 AM PDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:10 PM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:14 PM PDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.41.40.80.81.42.53.84.95.65.85.24.22.91.60.60.20.41.22.33.54.44.84.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.