Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oxnard, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 4:52PM Saturday November 17, 2018 2:38 AM PST (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 1:51AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 203 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming se 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft. Slight chance of rain.
PZZ600 203 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z...or 2 am pst, a 1017 mb high 200 nm west of point conception was producing weak onshore flow across the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxnard, CA
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location: 34.23, -119.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 170309
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
709 pm pst Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis 16 622 pm.

Onshore flow will establish through Saturday as high pressure
aloft over the west breaks down. Some cooling along with a return
of night through morning low clouds and fog to coastal and some
valley areas is expected into next week. A series of areas of low
pressure could bring rain to portions of the region for the latter
half of next week.

Short term (fri-mon) 16 654 pm.

***update***
onshore flow has arrived with both the kbfl and kdag grads about 1
mb onshore or about 2.5 mb more onshore than this time ydy. Hgts
also fell 4 dm as ydys ridge fell apart. These two things as well
as the cirrus shield the covered the area during the morning and
most of the afternoon brought about 3 to 6 degrees of cooling
across the area. Despite the cooling most MAX temps were 2 to 4
degrees above normal.

The marine layer is about 900 feet deep and marine layer stratus
has formed for the first time since the 8th. Stratus currently
covers the vta county coastal plain and the beaches of western sba
county. A weak eddy will bring low clouds to almost all of the
coasts and portions of the san gabriel and santa ynez vlys. There
is a chance of a little better vly penetration if the eddy comes
in stronger than fcst.

The deeper marine layer will combine with a few more dm of hgt
fall tomorrow to bring MAX temps down a few degrees and right at
normals.

The forecast is in good shape and no updates are planned.

***from previous discussion***
gradients still lightly offshore but trending onshore and should
official be onshore by this evening. Temps cooled off as expected
and this trend also will continue into Saturday along with what
should be an expanded and deepening marine layer. Forecast
soundings indicate the marine layer rapidly rising through the
evening up to around 1500' by morning. This may be enough to
squeak into the valleys but the deepening and onshore push might
not happen soon enough for this to happen. Either way expect
another few degrees of cooling and at least some morning stratus
along the coast. Will see another round of increasing high clouds
as well as some upper level moisture moves in off the pacific.

A weak trough moving through the northern rockies Sunday will
cause surface pressures to rise over nevada and generate a little
offshore push that will peak Monday. The NAM came in with a -4.1
lax-dag gradient for Monday which was 1-2mb stronger than the
previous models. However there's still little if any support aloft
so just the gradient driven winds should stay well below advisory
levels. Sunday we'll see temps rising a few degrees as a result of
the weaker onshore flow and then probably little change Monday. If
the stronger gradients pan out then Monday highs may end up being
a little warmer than currently forecast but only by a few degrees.

Long term (tue-fri) 16 202 pm.

The Monday ridge and offshore flow will transition pretty quickly
to troughing and onshore flow Tuesday. Models have been consistent
last few days scooting this upper low too far south to have much
impact other than to cool temps off a couple degrees with the
onshore flow.

Forecast gets infinitely more complex after Tuesday as models
continue to exhibit significant run to run variations leading to
even lower than usual confidence in the longer range, particularly
with the specifics. The operational GFS remains dry through the
end of next week, however many of the GEFS ensemble members
support the wetter ECMWF and nbm solutions for Wed and again
either Thu or Fri with a second system. So I agree with the idea
of going with pops in the 20-40 range all those days with the
highest chances across slo and northern sb counties. It doesn't
appear that any of these system have much potential for heavy rain
this far south as moisture is pretty limited, and while the ecmwf
does show some decent PVA for Wed night associated with a sharper
trough it's pretty quick moving and again not a ton of moisture
to work with. So chances can't be ruled out for some heavier
bursts but right now the odds favor a fairly benign series of
systems coming through mid to late next week. As we get closer
we'll be able to be more precise with the timing and amounts.

Aviation 17 0048z.

At 2345z, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the inversion
was at 2100 feet with a temperature of 17c.

High confidence in tafs through 06z. Fairly good confidence that
all cstl TAF sites will have low CIGS tonight but low confidence
on exact timing and cig hgt. There is a 20 percent chc of dense
fog at all coastal terminals. There is a 20 percent chance of ifr
cigs at kprb 12z-16z. There is a 10 percent chc of lifr CIGS at
kbur kvny 13z-16z.

Klax... High confidence TAF through 06z. CIGS may arrive as early
as 09z. There is a 30 percent chc that CIGS will be bkn006. There
is a 10 percent chc of no cigs.VFR transition should take place
between 16z-18z. There is a 20 percent chc of 1 4sm sm fg 12z-15z.

There is a 20 percent chc of east winds 8-9kt.

Kbur... High confidence in cavu taf. There is a 10 percent chc of
lifr CIGS 13z-16z.

Marine 16 119 pm.

High confidence in winds staying below small craft advisory (sca)
through Tuesday. Patchy dense fog will be possible anywhere
through Saturday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Mw rorke
aviation... Rorke
marine... Kittell
synopsis... Hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 11 mi48 min 63°F3 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 27 mi63 min N 1.9 G 2.9 57°F 1016.3 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 33 mi39 min N 1.9 G 3.9 62°F 65°F1016.2 hPa (+0.3)60°F
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 35 mi29 min WNW 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 67°F1015.8 hPa60°F
46251 37 mi39 min 65°F4 ft
46262 38 mi39 min 66°F3 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 41 mi39 min 66°F3 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 42 mi39 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 60°F 65°F1016.4 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA3 mi48 minNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F46°F77%1015.9 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA8 mi44 minN 07.00 miFair51°F46°F83%1016.9 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA10 mi1.7 hrsNNE 30.75 miFog/Mist51°F48°F92%1016 hPa

Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE7NE5NE6NE7NE5NE4SE4SE5S5S6S7SW6SW6S3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE6NE4NE3E6NE4
1 day agoNE7NE5NE6NE6NE9NE7NE4E8W7W11W10W12W10W8W8W5CalmNE3NE3NE6NE6NE5SW3E3
2 days agoE10NW6NW53N3CalmNW4NW8CalmE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
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Sat -- 12:51 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:57 AM PST     4.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:07 PM PST     2.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:02 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:26 PM PST     3.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:48 PM PST     0.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.52.33.13.94.44.54.43.93.32.72.32.12.22.63.13.63.93.93.52.92.21.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
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Sat -- 12:51 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:58 AM PST     4.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:04 PM PST     2.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:02 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:27 PM PST     3.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:45 PM PST     0.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.52.33.13.94.44.54.43.93.32.72.32.12.22.63.13.63.93.93.52.92.21.51.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.