Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guntersville, AL
May 1, 2024 6:21 PM CDT (23:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 2:04 AM Moonset 12:19 PM |
Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
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FXUS64 KHUN 012305 AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 605 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Mid level ridging continues to reinforce our summer like airmass yielding another afternoon of highs in the 80s. With dew points in the high 50s to low 60s you may find yourself commenting on the humidity for one of the first times this year. Ridging and surface high pressure will remain solidly in place through today and tonight promoting very light winds through the night. Clear conditions will allow temps to fall into the high 50s to low 60s tonight. Despite another night of cooler temperatures, fog development will be questionable. Dew point depressions look slightly larger than previous nights, this along with slightly higher winds may refine fog possibilities to sheltered valleys and near water ways.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Tomorrow, mid level ridging will continue to push east. One last day of high pressure influence will grant us another afternoon of near record high temperatures in the mid to high 80s. With tomorrow being the warmest day in this current pattern, there is a low chance a few locations could see their first 90 degree day of the year.
Overnight Thursday into Friday is when we will see a pattern shift. Mid level ridging will begin to deteriorate giving way to a more zonal flow pattern. This will allow several short waves to ripple east across the area bringing our next chance for rain and storms Friday through Saturday. Rain chances pick up from the east early Friday morning with medium to high (30-70%) PoP's remaining through late Saturday night. Highest chances for rain currently look to be both Friday and Saturday afternoon. The severe threat during this period remains low. Elevated convection will likely produces some rumbles of thunder however heavy rainfall looks to be the biggest threat with this system.
While QPF currently remains below an inch for the entire area, a few factors will align to make heavy rainfall a threat. PWAT values will be near or just above 1.5" placing us well within the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology for BMX along with low and mid level RH >80%. With a very saturated atmosphere, heavy rainfall is very possible with a marginal (1/4) risk for excessive rainfall from WPC issued from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Thursday for the whole area. Without impressive QPF amounts, slow moving storms (only 15-20 KTs of steering flow) with efficient rainfall rates could produce localized nuisance flooding in flood prone areas.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Scattered/numerous showers/tstms look to continue into the first half of the weekend period, as a weak frontal boundary drifts SE into the mid TN Valley and stalls. Weak zonal flow aloft coupled with minimal low-level convergence should offset the prob for organized/stronger tstms, although brief heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. Rainfall will then diminish during the second half of the weekend, as the front weakens invof the area. Seasonably warm temps look to continue thru the weekend period, with highs Sat/Sun remaining predom in the lower/mid 80s, while lows into early Mon trend in the lower/mid 60s. Scattered showers/tstms are then expected on Mon, as the weak sfc boundary lifts back to the north as a warm front. Once again, overall synoptic forcing looks fairly weak although locally heavy rainfall is possible with a few of these showers/tstms. Rain chances will then diminish once again Mon night/Tue, as weak upper ridging moves across the region and high pressure at the sfc becomes established over the eastern Gulf region.
Little change is also expected with overall temps into the new work week, with highs Mon/Tue once again in the lower/mid 80s and overnight lows remaining in the lower/mid 60s.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with light SE/SSE winds and a mostly clear sky.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 605 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Mid level ridging continues to reinforce our summer like airmass yielding another afternoon of highs in the 80s. With dew points in the high 50s to low 60s you may find yourself commenting on the humidity for one of the first times this year. Ridging and surface high pressure will remain solidly in place through today and tonight promoting very light winds through the night. Clear conditions will allow temps to fall into the high 50s to low 60s tonight. Despite another night of cooler temperatures, fog development will be questionable. Dew point depressions look slightly larger than previous nights, this along with slightly higher winds may refine fog possibilities to sheltered valleys and near water ways.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Tomorrow, mid level ridging will continue to push east. One last day of high pressure influence will grant us another afternoon of near record high temperatures in the mid to high 80s. With tomorrow being the warmest day in this current pattern, there is a low chance a few locations could see their first 90 degree day of the year.
Overnight Thursday into Friday is when we will see a pattern shift. Mid level ridging will begin to deteriorate giving way to a more zonal flow pattern. This will allow several short waves to ripple east across the area bringing our next chance for rain and storms Friday through Saturday. Rain chances pick up from the east early Friday morning with medium to high (30-70%) PoP's remaining through late Saturday night. Highest chances for rain currently look to be both Friday and Saturday afternoon. The severe threat during this period remains low. Elevated convection will likely produces some rumbles of thunder however heavy rainfall looks to be the biggest threat with this system.
While QPF currently remains below an inch for the entire area, a few factors will align to make heavy rainfall a threat. PWAT values will be near or just above 1.5" placing us well within the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology for BMX along with low and mid level RH >80%. With a very saturated atmosphere, heavy rainfall is very possible with a marginal (1/4) risk for excessive rainfall from WPC issued from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Thursday for the whole area. Without impressive QPF amounts, slow moving storms (only 15-20 KTs of steering flow) with efficient rainfall rates could produce localized nuisance flooding in flood prone areas.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Scattered/numerous showers/tstms look to continue into the first half of the weekend period, as a weak frontal boundary drifts SE into the mid TN Valley and stalls. Weak zonal flow aloft coupled with minimal low-level convergence should offset the prob for organized/stronger tstms, although brief heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. Rainfall will then diminish during the second half of the weekend, as the front weakens invof the area. Seasonably warm temps look to continue thru the weekend period, with highs Sat/Sun remaining predom in the lower/mid 80s, while lows into early Mon trend in the lower/mid 60s. Scattered showers/tstms are then expected on Mon, as the weak sfc boundary lifts back to the north as a warm front. Once again, overall synoptic forcing looks fairly weak although locally heavy rainfall is possible with a few of these showers/tstms. Rain chances will then diminish once again Mon night/Tue, as weak upper ridging moves across the region and high pressure at the sfc becomes established over the eastern Gulf region.
Little change is also expected with overall temps into the new work week, with highs Mon/Tue once again in the lower/mid 80s and overnight lows remaining in the lower/mid 60s.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with light SE/SSE winds and a mostly clear sky.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Airport Reports
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