Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Havasu City, AZ
March 18, 2024 9:32 PM MST (04:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 6:49 PM Moonrise 12:47 PM Moonset 3:15 AM |
Area Discussion for - Las Vegas, NV
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FXUS65 KVEF 190246 AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 745 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Broad upper low over the region will keep chances of afternoon showers through Tuesday evening across the Mojave Desert.
As this low pressure pushes east midweek, conditions will dry out and temperatures will warm above seasonal averages. Another broad area of low pressure will impact the region next weekend with the return gusty winds, chances of precipitation and cooler temperatures.
UPDATE
Mesoanalysis late this afternoon showed a cold core upper level low situated over southeast California, which allowed for weak instability to develop along with continued cyclonic flow aloft associated with waves of better energy in the vorticity fields. This resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, mainly in southern Mohave County and south of the I-15 in Clark and San Bernardino counties. Surface CAPE was able to climb to around 1000 K/Jg in parts of Mohave County where the most widespread precipitation and impacts occurred. Occasionally heavy rain and small hail were reported with some of the more organized thunderstorms around Kingman, AZ as webcam images and spotters reported isolated ponding on area roadways and nickle size hail.
Rain gages reported up to 0.50 inches of rain over the past 6 hours in this region. Further north and west, precipitation was driven more by forcing and thus precipitation was not as robust. That being said, gusty outflow winds were able to develop in this region as sunny skies allowed for the low levels to warm up and dry out slightly compared to the past few days. A few locations reported outflow gusts of 30 to 40 MPH in southern Clark County and the Colorado River Valley. Outside of these areas, it was dry with mostly sunny skies.
Instability has begun to weaken and radar has started to diminish in terms of lightning and activity, as expected. However much like the past few nights, continued waves of forcing moving east to west may result in isolated showers through the rest of the night. Updated precipitation chances to reflect this trend, trying to tie showery activity to where the better forcing should be. Isolated showers may persist through the night in southern Clark and southeast San Bernardino counties. Not expecting impacts from these showers as they should be fast moving and bring only light rain amounts. A stray lightning strike is not out of the question, as suggested by the latest HRRR, but again- not expecting widespread thunderstorm impacts. Overnight, most areas will be dry and any precipitation that may move through will be light and short lived. Winds will continue to diminish as well the rest of the evening. Light winds and low temperatures slightly warmer than last night can be expected.
-Nickerson-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
253 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
DISCUSSION
A compact vort center over southeast California will continue to drift south-southwest into northern Baja Mexico. The feature will still be capable of producing showers and thunderstorms as far north as the Morongo Basin into this evening. Elsewhere, radar detecting isolated showers over the Coconino Plateau, east of Mohave County. SBCAPE values of 500 J/kg being shown off the latest SPC mesoscale analysis has been expanding over central Mohave County over the past few hours. This area should fill in with showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The HRRR does show some of those showers and thunderstorms making it as far west as Clark and eastern San Bernardino later this afternoon and evening. Isolated showers possible overnight in parts of Mohave, Clark, and San Bernardino Counties as models show additional vorticity centers moving over the region as the cutoff low stays stationary near Yuma.
The cutoff low is finally progged to start moving east into central Arizona Tuesday. However, lingering cyclonic flow and cold temperatures aloft will provide another day of pop-up showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly over Mohave County. But, can not rule out a few as far west as Clark and San Bernardino Counties.
Dry and warmer weather returns to the region Wednesday-Friday under a broad ridge of high pressure. Warmest temperatures of the year so far expected. NBM currently has about a 40% chance that Harry Reid International Airport will hit 80 degrees either Thursday or Friday.
Ensemble solutions showing a broad trough developing across the western CONUS over the weekend into early next week. Main impact looks to be strengthening south-southwest winds across the Mojave Desert/far southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Will also need to keep a close eye on downslope potential in the lee of the southern Sierra in Inyo County, and potentially the Spring Mountains. Chances for precipitation begin to increase Friday night in western Inyo County, eventually spreading east through parts of south central Nevada Saturday. Depending on the eventual depth of the trough precipitation chances should increase as far south as the mountains of Clark and northern Mohave Counties. Temperatures slated to retreat back closer to normal Saturday, then below normal Sunday and Monday.
AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Breezy northeast winds this afternoon with gusts around 20-25 knots anticipated. Wind direction expected to remain between 030 and 060. In the late afternoon, showers are expected to develop in the airport vicinity, with best chances to the south and east. If any precip reaches the airport (10% chance), it's expected to be light. However, outflow from vicinity precipitation should turn winds more easterly. East breezes and vicinity showers linger through ~04z, possibly later, before drier conditions prevail and typical southwest winds resume. East- northeast winds return tomorrow, but much lighter than today. FEW- SCT mid-level clouds persist through the TAF period, with bases generally aoa 8kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Breezy northeast winds across most of the area today with gusts around 20-25 knots. Winds weaken this evening and overnight to less than 10 knots. Vicinity showers are possible at sites in the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley, with the best chance of precipitation at KIFP. Outflow from showers may produce erratic, gusty conditions at KIFP and potentially KEED as well. Cloud bases generally aoa 8kft. At KBIH, light and variable winds today becoming northerly tonight.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 745 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Broad upper low over the region will keep chances of afternoon showers through Tuesday evening across the Mojave Desert.
As this low pressure pushes east midweek, conditions will dry out and temperatures will warm above seasonal averages. Another broad area of low pressure will impact the region next weekend with the return gusty winds, chances of precipitation and cooler temperatures.
UPDATE
Mesoanalysis late this afternoon showed a cold core upper level low situated over southeast California, which allowed for weak instability to develop along with continued cyclonic flow aloft associated with waves of better energy in the vorticity fields. This resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, mainly in southern Mohave County and south of the I-15 in Clark and San Bernardino counties. Surface CAPE was able to climb to around 1000 K/Jg in parts of Mohave County where the most widespread precipitation and impacts occurred. Occasionally heavy rain and small hail were reported with some of the more organized thunderstorms around Kingman, AZ as webcam images and spotters reported isolated ponding on area roadways and nickle size hail.
Rain gages reported up to 0.50 inches of rain over the past 6 hours in this region. Further north and west, precipitation was driven more by forcing and thus precipitation was not as robust. That being said, gusty outflow winds were able to develop in this region as sunny skies allowed for the low levels to warm up and dry out slightly compared to the past few days. A few locations reported outflow gusts of 30 to 40 MPH in southern Clark County and the Colorado River Valley. Outside of these areas, it was dry with mostly sunny skies.
Instability has begun to weaken and radar has started to diminish in terms of lightning and activity, as expected. However much like the past few nights, continued waves of forcing moving east to west may result in isolated showers through the rest of the night. Updated precipitation chances to reflect this trend, trying to tie showery activity to where the better forcing should be. Isolated showers may persist through the night in southern Clark and southeast San Bernardino counties. Not expecting impacts from these showers as they should be fast moving and bring only light rain amounts. A stray lightning strike is not out of the question, as suggested by the latest HRRR, but again- not expecting widespread thunderstorm impacts. Overnight, most areas will be dry and any precipitation that may move through will be light and short lived. Winds will continue to diminish as well the rest of the evening. Light winds and low temperatures slightly warmer than last night can be expected.
-Nickerson-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
253 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
DISCUSSION
A compact vort center over southeast California will continue to drift south-southwest into northern Baja Mexico. The feature will still be capable of producing showers and thunderstorms as far north as the Morongo Basin into this evening. Elsewhere, radar detecting isolated showers over the Coconino Plateau, east of Mohave County. SBCAPE values of 500 J/kg being shown off the latest SPC mesoscale analysis has been expanding over central Mohave County over the past few hours. This area should fill in with showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The HRRR does show some of those showers and thunderstorms making it as far west as Clark and eastern San Bernardino later this afternoon and evening. Isolated showers possible overnight in parts of Mohave, Clark, and San Bernardino Counties as models show additional vorticity centers moving over the region as the cutoff low stays stationary near Yuma.
The cutoff low is finally progged to start moving east into central Arizona Tuesday. However, lingering cyclonic flow and cold temperatures aloft will provide another day of pop-up showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly over Mohave County. But, can not rule out a few as far west as Clark and San Bernardino Counties.
Dry and warmer weather returns to the region Wednesday-Friday under a broad ridge of high pressure. Warmest temperatures of the year so far expected. NBM currently has about a 40% chance that Harry Reid International Airport will hit 80 degrees either Thursday or Friday.
Ensemble solutions showing a broad trough developing across the western CONUS over the weekend into early next week. Main impact looks to be strengthening south-southwest winds across the Mojave Desert/far southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Will also need to keep a close eye on downslope potential in the lee of the southern Sierra in Inyo County, and potentially the Spring Mountains. Chances for precipitation begin to increase Friday night in western Inyo County, eventually spreading east through parts of south central Nevada Saturday. Depending on the eventual depth of the trough precipitation chances should increase as far south as the mountains of Clark and northern Mohave Counties. Temperatures slated to retreat back closer to normal Saturday, then below normal Sunday and Monday.
AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Breezy northeast winds this afternoon with gusts around 20-25 knots anticipated. Wind direction expected to remain between 030 and 060. In the late afternoon, showers are expected to develop in the airport vicinity, with best chances to the south and east. If any precip reaches the airport (10% chance), it's expected to be light. However, outflow from vicinity precipitation should turn winds more easterly. East breezes and vicinity showers linger through ~04z, possibly later, before drier conditions prevail and typical southwest winds resume. East- northeast winds return tomorrow, but much lighter than today. FEW- SCT mid-level clouds persist through the TAF period, with bases generally aoa 8kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Breezy northeast winds across most of the area today with gusts around 20-25 knots. Winds weaken this evening and overnight to less than 10 knots. Vicinity showers are possible at sites in the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley, with the best chance of precipitation at KIFP. Outflow from showers may produce erratic, gusty conditions at KIFP and potentially KEED as well. Cloud bases generally aoa 8kft. At KBIH, light and variable winds today becoming northerly tonight.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KHII LAKE HAVASU CITY,AZ | 6 sm | 17 min | W 05 | 10 sm | -- | 68°F | 37°F | 32% | 30.02 |
Las Vegas, NV,
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