Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lancaster, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:45PM Friday February 23, 2018 12:36 PM PST (20:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:29PMMoonset 1:41AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 834 Am Pst Fri Feb 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 17 seconds, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft dominant period 16 seconds after midnight.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 20 to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft. Slight chance of showers.
PZZ600 834 Am Pst Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z...or 7 am pst...a 1039 mb high was 1100 nm nw of point conception and a 1012 mb low was over utah. Gusty nw winds will persist through this evening, resulting in building short period seas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, CA
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location: 34.73, -118     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 231756 aaa
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
956 am pst Fri feb 23 2018

Updated aviation discussion...

Synopsis 23 955 am.

A series of lows will bring possible precipitation into next week.

The precipitation in the mountains will end today, with breezy
winds into this Friday evening. Then a second low should arrive
by Monday and persist into Tuesday evening. The third low will
approach by Thursday. The temperatures will be below normal into
next week except for Sunday, when they may warm to around normal.

Short term (tdy-sun) 23 939 am.

Cool breezy day today as another trough passed through the area
early this morning. Still getting some upslope clouds and possibly
a few snow flurries up in the northern mountains and grapevine
area but those should be ending soon and will let the winter
weather advisory expire at 10am. It will remain breezy however and
we may need a wind advisory for the grapevine area through early
evening. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast through
the weekend.

***from previous discussion***
it will be clear tonight. Winds should decrease to below advisory
levels in most areas this evening, although may stay gusty in the
mountains. Where the winds drop off tonight, it will become quite
cold. Freeze watches are in effect for the central coast, the
interior valleys of ventura county, especially for the ojai
valley, and the santa monica mountains. A hard freeze watch has
been posted for the santa ynez valley. Frost advisories may have
to be considered for the south coast of sba county, the vtu county
coast, the coastal valleys of vtu county, and possibly the san
fernando and santa clarita valley. Will let the day shift assess
that further, since there is still some question as to whether
on not there may be too much winds tonight.

Dry weather is expected over the weekend. MAX temps should be up a
couple of degrees on Saturday, then several more degrees on
Sunday, with temps possibly getting close to normal levels. There
may be another bump up in the north winds late Sat into early
Sunday, mainly from southeastern sba county through l.A. County.

Where there is no winds, it will be another cold night Sat night,
with freezing temps possible in some coastal and valley areas.

Long term (mon-thu) 23 442 am.

A trough will dig southward from the pacific NW on mon. Heights
across the region will fall and onshore flow will increase. This
should bring a few degrees of cooling to the forecast areas,
especially west of the mtns. Clouds should increase in the
afternoon, mainly across northern sections. There is a slight
chance of showers north of pt conception late in the day, but
overall it should be a dry day.

The models have come into better agreement with this next system,
with the ec backing off its track well out over the water
gathering a fair amount of pacific moisture, and the GFS slightly
farther west and a bit wetter. Both models show the system
digging through ca Monday afternoon, with the trough axis right
along or just off the coast, then show it closing off right across
sba county Mon night. It then is forecast to move eastward into
the deserts on tue. At this point, it appears as though there will
be a chance of showers across the region Mon night into tue,
possibly lingering into Tue evening across eastern l.A. County. By
no means does this look like a large rain maker for the region,
with generally one tenth to one third of an inch of rain expected.

However, if it tracks a bit farther west and gathers some moisture,
totals could be somewhat higher. The ec is stronger and colder
with the upper low, suggesting rather low snow levels, probably
in the 3500 to 4500 feet range. Still too early for those details
yet, especially with the models changing from run to run.

Dry weather is expected late Tue night through wed. Beyond wed,
the models are very different. The ec shows a sharp negatively
tilted trough approaching the pac NW thu, a strong jet sagging
southward into the forecast area, heights dropping to 550 dm by
thu afternoon, and rain spreading into the region. The 06z gfs
slower, weaker and farther north with the upper trough, maintains
566-570 dm heights across the region through Thu and keeps it dry.

Have decided to make few changes to the forecast for thu, keeping
the chance of rain in most areas. However, the trend of the gfs
is am eye-popping one, and suggests little if any rain across the
region for the end of the week.

Aviation 23 1755z.

At 1730z, there was no inversion present at klax.

Generally hi confidence in the 18z tafs.VFR conditions are expected
at all the airfields through Sat morning. There will be gusty NW to
n winds at many airfields this afternoon into the evening, with a 20
percent chance of low level wind shear at times this evening at ksba
due to gusty N canyon winds in the vicinity.

Klax... Generally hi confidence in the 18z TAF withVFR conditions
expected through Sat afternoon. There will also be gusty N winds
this morning to 20 knots switching to NW to W to 26 knots this
afternoon into the early evening.

Kbur... Generally hi confidence in the 18z TAF withVFR conditions
expected through Sat morning. There will also be gusty N winds
up to 22 knots thru early this evening.

Marine 23 836 am.

For the outer waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gale
force winds will continue through this evening with a 70% chance
of gale force winds continuing Saturday and Saturday night.

Therefore, the gale warning may need to be extended by future
shifts. For Sunday through Tuesday, small craft advisory (sca)
level winds are likely (80% confidence).

For the inner waters, moderate confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of point sal, there is an 80% chance of SCA level
winds each afternoon evening today through Tuesday and a 30%
chance of gale force gusts this afternoon evening and again Friday
afternoon evening. For the waters south of point conception, sca
level winds will continue through this evening with a 70% chance
of SCA level winds Friday afternoon evening. On Monday and
Tuesday, there is a 70% chance of a repeat of SCA level winds in
the afternoon evening hours.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect until 9 pm pst this evening for zones
34-35-53-54-59. (see laxnpwlox).

Freeze watch in effect from late tonight through Saturday
morning for zones 34-35-44-46. (see laxnpwlox).

Hard freeze watch in effect from late tonight through
Saturday morning for zone 36. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 10 pm pst this evening for
zones 39-52. (see laxnpwlox).

Winter weather advisory in effect until 10 am pst this
morning for zones 53-54. (see laxwswlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pst this evening
for zones 645-650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect until 9 pm pst this evening for zones
670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
Low elevation snow possible Monday night into Tuesday creating
hazardous driving conditions in the mountains, especially across
the interstate 5 corridor.

Public... Mw db
aviation... Sirard
marine... Rat sirard
synopsis... Stu
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 56 mi54 min WSW 12 G 14 51°F 57°F1023.7 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 69 mi36 min 59°F5 ft
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 71 mi48 min 59°F1023.3 hPa

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palmdale, Palmdale Production Flight Plant, CA8 mi43 minWNW 14 G 2310.00 miFair45°F17°F33%1022.5 hPa
General Wm J Fox Airfield, CA12 mi40 minWNW 16 G 2410.00 miFair44°F19°F38%1023.3 hPa
Edwards Air Force Base, CA14 mi98 minW 19 G 2550.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy44°F18°F36%1021.2 hPa
Edwards, Edwards Air Force Auxiliary North Base, CA18 mi98 minW 2010.00 miFair and Breezy46°F16°F30%1021 hPa
Mojave, CA24 mi56 minWNW 24 G 3110.00 miFair and Windy43°F17°F36%1021 hPa

Wind History from PMD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW10NW12
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NW19NW15W14W11W9S5SW10S7SW7SW9SW8SW10W11SW8W7W7NW7SW19
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2 days agoN5N63--N4N4NE4W7CalmCalmS4W3S5CalmS4SW3W3W7CalmNW7NW8NW8CalmNW7

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California
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Santa Monica
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:09 AM PST     First Quarter
Fri -- 12:41 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:31 AM PST     4.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:15 AM PST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:32 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:52 PM PST     2.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.84.44.74.74.43.832.11.40.90.70.711.522.52.72.82.72.52.32.22.32.7

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, California
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Santa Monica
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:09 AM PST     First Quarter
Fri -- 12:41 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:31 AM PST     4.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:16 AM PST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:32 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:53 PM PST     2.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM PST     2.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.94.44.74.74.43.832.21.40.90.70.81.11.52.12.52.82.82.72.52.32.32.42.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Edwards AFB, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.