Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Havelock, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:58PM Saturday February 23, 2019 3:39 PM EST (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 10:43PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 300 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect from 1 am to 10 am est Sunday...
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late this evening, then becoming sw after midnight, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop late. Patchy fog. A slight chance of rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight, decreasing to 1 nm or less.
Sun..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of rain.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of rain.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Havelock, NC
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location: 34.88, -76.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 232037 cca
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
335 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
A stationary front off the coast is expected to lift back to
the north across the area as a warm front tonight resulting in
continued unsettled weather. A strong cold front will cross the
region Sunday. High pressure will build in from the northwest
early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 pm Saturday... The latest sfc analysis shows the
stationary front across our coastal waters this afternoon, while
high pressure continues to ridge in from the north. Most of the
light rain drizzle has shifted north or is along the outer
banks near the stationary front. The frontal boundary will move
in as a warm front and lift across the area tonight. Areas of
light rain, drizzle and fog will continue through the evening;
mostly over the northern portions and along the outer banks,
then precip should taper off as eastern nc gets into the warm
sector with developing southerly winds resulting in temps rising
throughout the night. Thus low temps will occur in the evening.

Short term Sunday
As of 325 pm Saturday... Eastern nc will be in the warm sector
ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is expected
to push through late in the day, leading to a very warm day with
high temps in the mid upper 70s inland with beaches mid 60s to
low 70s. Moisture looks to weaken as it approaches the area from
the west; therefore have the highest pops (50%) along the
coastal plains to 30% pops along the coastal counties and light
rainfall amounts. Given warm temps most models continue very
weak instab and added isold aftn tsra for mainly highway 17
corridor. It will become windy Sunday with SW winds of 15-25
mph, with some gusts up to 30-35 mph.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
As of 330 pm sat...

Sunday night through tue... Dry high pres builds in thru Tue with
temps not far from normal with highs lower 50s NE to around 60 lower
60s SW Mon and tue. Wnw winds Monday will remain around 10-15
mph with a few higher gusts up to 20-25 mph; otherwise winds
throughout the period will be fairly light. Lows Sun night
relatively mild with continued mixed atms with readings
generally in the low 40s. Mon night will be colder with good
radiational cooling conditions expected with lows in the low
30s interior to mid upr 30s beaches.

Wed through thu... Models continue to differ this period as next
frontal system impacts the area. The GFS is the wetter
solution, generating multiple southern stream shortwave troughs
over the southern plains and dragging a couple systems over the
area during the second half of the week. The ECMWF and canadian
are a bit drier, though do hint at in-situ type wedge situation
developing once again, with high pres ridging in from the
northeast while coastal troughiness takes shape and brings light
rain chances mainly to the coast. Will side with the
wpc euro cmc solution and hedge on the cooler side, keeping
highs mainly in the 50s this period. GFS advertising highs in
the 60s however, and appears to be a warm outlier. Still plenty
of uncertainty this period regarding rain chances, though did
highlight low chc pops for coastal SRN zones, with just slgt chc
inland for Wed thu.

Friday through Saturday... Low pres may develop ahead of short
wave late in week into the weekend but again confidence quite
low in this fast moving zonal pattern so just low chc pops
fri sat. Temps should be near climo with the zonal flow.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1 pm Saturday... High confidence in ifr conditions to
conditions through most of the TAF period, especially for the
next 6-18 hours. Cad surface pressure pattern allowing for
widespread low clouds (ifr conditions) and light rain drizzle.

These conditions will continue through the evening hours with
possible patchy dense fog for late tonight, then a warm front
should lift north through the area resulting in a decrease in
precipitation tonight. Model guidance continues to hang on to
ifr ceilings and MVFR to ifr visibilities all night even in the
warm sector behind the warm front though some improvement in
conditions to MVFR would be possible after 12z as gusty southerly
flow develops ahead of the cold front. Also, llws will develop for
all TAF sites starting around 8z tonight.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday ...

as of 330 pm sat... High confidence inVFR finally returning sun
night dominating through mid week as dry high pres builds in
from nw. Winds a bit gusty on Monday with wnw gusts to around 20
kt possible.

Marine
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 330 pm sat... The latest buoy obs are showing ne
10-15 knots and seas mostly 4-6 ft across the coastal waters.

Seas will gradually diminish below 6 ft tonight. Winds will
veer to E and SE in this early this evening north of cape
lookout, then continue to veer to the S and SW as a warm front
lifts north through the waters. Speeds will increase from 10-15
kt in the evening to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt toward
dawn. Seas will be 3-5 ft overnight.

Complicated and busy marine forecast on Sunday, as a warm front
lifts north tonight and then a strong cold front swings through
Sunday. Patchy to areas of dense marine fog possible starting
this evening as warm front lifts north and winds become south
bringing warm moist air over the colder waters. The dense fog
will be a threat through Sunday morning, when winds increase
enough to mix out the fog. The attention then turns to SCA and
gale conditions, with winds 20-30 kt expected for the marine
zones, though higher for the waters from oregon inlet to surf
city, especially over the warm gulf stream waters, where winds
gust to 40 kt or higher.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday ...

as of 330 pm sat... The winds turn west to wnw on Sunday
night and remain gusty with gradient remaining tight.

Wnw winds gradually diminish to 10-20 kt late Monday. Seas will
grad subside below 6 ft by Monday afternoon. Very light winds
tue with high over region and seas will drop to 1 to 3 ft. Will
lean closer to ECMWF long term with winds turning NE behind
backdoor cold front mid week though keep winds seas below sca
mainly 2 to 4 feet.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Sunday
for amz130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156.

Small craft advisory from 10 am to 7 pm est Sunday for amz136-
137.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Sunday to 10 am est Monday for
amz130-131-135.

Gale warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for amz152-
154.

Gale warning from 10 am to 7 pm est Sunday for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Sunday to 1 pm est Monday for
amz150.

Dense fog advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Sunday for amz158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Bm
short term... Bm
long term... Rf tl
aviation... Tl bm
marine... Tl bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 17 mi45 min NNE 11 G 12 54°F 53°F1021 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 27 mi39 min N 6 G 7 1020.8 hPa (-2.5)
41159 46 mi39 min 63°F6 ft
41064 47 mi31 min S 12 G 18 68°F 63°F1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC3 mi45 minENE 79.00 miOvercast54°F54°F100%1021 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC15 mi42 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1021.3 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC16 mi45 minNE 78.00 miOvercast50°F50°F100%1021.9 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC17 mi1.7 hrsNNE 1010.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW13
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W11W10W9W12W10W10W10W7S3CalmSE3N5CalmCalmCalmNE5NE8NE7NE6E8E11NE13NE17
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2 days agoE9NE6E9SE9SE10SE12SE8SE8S8S9SW6SW7W5NW6CalmSW6SW4SW5SW6W6NW3CalmSW5SW11

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
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Sat -- 12:14 AM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:08 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.20.80.40.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.20.71.11.31.31.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:52 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:43 AM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:10 PM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.91.40.70.1-0.3-0.4-0.20.411.72.12.21.91.50.90.3-0.2-0.4-0.30.20.81.52

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.