Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 11:01 PM   Moonset 7:28 AM

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FXUS65 KABQ 271129 AAA AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 529 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Precipitation will continue to increase in coverage today across the central mountains and westward. Meanwhile, winds will strength across the south central mountains and portions of eastern New Mexico this afternoon. Shower activity will linger Sunday across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast New Mexico before tapering off after midnight. Dry conditions and a warming trend take hold Monday through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures to prevail on Thursday areawide.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A 552dam H5 low just west of the Four Corners early this morning will track ENE across southern Colorado through the day before lifting northeast overnight. Rain and high elevation snow showers with isolated thunderstorms continue this morning across northern and western NM. These showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage through the afternoon hours mainly along and west of the Central Mountain Chain. Snow levels will rise from around 7500 feet this morning to near 8000 feet this afternoon with daytime heating.
An enhancement in precipitation may occur along a weak cold front that will race from west to east this afternoon. Additionally, graupel as well as gusty and erratic winds will be possible with these storms. Meanwhile across eastern NM, strong southwest winds will develop by late morning and continue through sunset. Gusts near 50 mph will be possible across the South Central Mountains eastward across Chaves County. Localized areas of blowing dust and reduced visibility is possible. Have expanded the Wind Advisory slightly to include eastern Lincoln County and the Chaves County Plains.

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly come to an end overnight.
Winds will decrease as well, though breezy conditions may persist especially along and east of the Central Mt Chain. A weak backdoor front will push into northeast NM. This front combined with a weak trough passage will set the stage for additional shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon across northeast NM.
Elsewhere, breezy conditions are expected with temperatures climbing on the order of 10 degrees from today's readings.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

As the upper low whisks off toward the Midwest, a trailing shortwave will combine lift and moisture for one last round of precip favoring the Sangre de Cristo Mts and far northeastern NM Sunday night.
Showers will diminish quickly after midnight, leaving dry conditions to prevail at the start of the work week. Rising pressure heights will allow for temperatures to warm 5F to 10F on Monday compared to Sunday's readings. The warming trend will carry through until Wednesday allowing temperatures to land above to well above normal.
Dry conditions, sunny skies, and light to breezy winds will give these three days a near perfect weather differential.

Meanwhile, a party of upper lows dancing along the US/CAN border will bring the potential for unsettled weather Wednesday night into Thursday as one dips into the Intermountain West. A backdoor cold front will surge down the eastern plains Wednesday night, resulting in markedly cooler daytime temperatures on Thursday areawide. The cold front will then get a reinforcing shot Thursday night, pushing it westward and potentially through the gaps of the central mts. Return flow increases towards the end of the week -- as does instability -- setting the stage for potential thunderstorms, especially across eastern New Mexico into the weekend.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms persist across northern and western NM early this morning. After a short break in the action this morning, precipitation will expand across most areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain by mid day. Showers will then persist on and off through the afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also possible, but confidence in timing is too low to put into the TAFs attm. MVFR cigs are likely at KFMN and KGUP. Mt obscurations are also likely. Showers and thunderstorms may result in strong and erratic wind gusts to 45kt Saturday, especially any showers or storms along a Pacific cold front pushing from west to east this afternoon. Additionally, southwest winds will increase late this morning across eastern NM. Gusts between 35 and 40 kts will be common. These winds may create areas of blowing dust this afternoon, especially around KROW. Winds will generally taper off around sunset, though breeziness will persist tonight along and just east of the Central Mt Chain.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...

Another round of critical fire weather conditions are expected across the northeast and east central plains this afternoon and evening. Strong southwesterly winds will develop ahead of a storm system. Humidity values will drop below 15 percent before a Pacific cold front moves through the area this evening raising humidities and lowering temperatures. Meanwhile, areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain can expected showers and thunderstorms today, though wetting rain and/or snowfall will favor higher terrain areas.
Light accumulations of snow are possible above 8000 feet. After today, widespread critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across northeast NM. Breezy conditions are expected elsewhere but humidity values will remain high enough to prevent critical conditions. Hot, dry and unstable conditions are expected for Monday through Thursday, as the backdoor cold front that was supposed to arrive Thursday now looks largely delayed until Thursday night.
Breezy conditions on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will result in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 56 37 65 37 / 60 20 5 0 Dulce........................... 52 31 62 28 / 80 40 30 0 Cuba............................ 51 31 60 33 / 80 50 20 0 Gallup.......................... 50 28 63 30 / 80 40 5 0 El Morro........................ 46 32 58 33 / 80 50 5 0 Grants.......................... 52 31 63 30 / 60 30 5 0 Quemado......................... 53 32 61 34 / 50 70 0 0 Magdalena....................... 57 39 65 41 / 30 20 0 0 Datil........................... 52 34 60 36 / 30 40 0 0 Reserve......................... 59 29 69 32 / 30 20 0 0 Glenwood........................ 63 40 73 45 / 20 5 0 0 Chama........................... 46 29 54 27 / 80 50 60 10 Los Alamos...................... 51 37 59 40 / 70 40 20 0 Pecos........................... 54 33 63 35 / 40 40 20 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 34 55 32 / 60 40 40 20 Red River....................... 45 27 52 27 / 70 40 70 30 Angel Fire...................... 47 26 54 23 / 50 30 50 20 Taos............................ 53 29 61 28 / 60 30 20 10 Mora............................ 54 32 60 33 / 30 30 20 10 Espanola........................ 59 38 67 37 / 60 30 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 54 36 62 39 / 50 40 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 35 65 37 / 50 30 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 43 68 46 / 40 40 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 42 70 44 / 40 40 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 40 72 43 / 30 30 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 41 70 43 / 40 30 0 0 Belen........................... 65 40 73 41 / 30 30 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 61 42 70 43 / 50 40 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 39 72 40 / 30 30 0 0 Corrales........................ 61 40 71 42 / 40 40 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 39 72 40 / 30 30 0 0 Placitas........................ 56 41 66 44 / 50 40 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 60 41 69 43 / 40 40 0 0 Socorro......................... 68 44 75 45 / 20 20 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 38 61 41 / 50 40 5 0 Tijeras......................... 55 38 64 41 / 40 40 5 0 Edgewood........................ 56 37 65 38 / 30 30 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 34 67 34 / 30 20 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 33 63 36 / 20 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 57 36 66 39 / 20 30 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 58 35 66 39 / 20 30 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 63 42 70 46 / 10 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 56 37 64 42 / 10 10 0 0 Capulin......................... 60 31 60 35 / 40 30 40 30 Raton........................... 62 32 63 33 / 40 20 40 30 Springer........................ 63 33 67 35 / 20 10 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 58 33 64 35 / 10 10 10 5 Clayton......................... 69 38 65 41 / 10 10 20 20 Roy............................. 64 36 66 39 / 10 10 20 20 Conchas......................... 72 40 74 42 / 5 5 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 67 41 72 41 / 5 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 73 39 74 42 / 0 5 0 10 Clovis.......................... 74 43 75 45 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 76 42 76 45 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 72 43 77 44 / 5 5 0 5 Roswell......................... 79 47 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 67 43 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 64 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-126.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-238>240.

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