Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kingman, AZ
March 19, 2024 6:56 AM MST (13:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:38 AM Sunset 6:48 PM Moonrise 1:45 PM Moonset 4:01 AM |
Area Discussion for - Las Vegas, NV
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FXUS65 KVEF 190935 AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 235 AM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Chances of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms continue for northwestern Arizona and portions of far southern Nevada and far southeastern California through the evening.
Conditions will dry out midweek as temperatures increase above seasonal averages. An additional broad area of low pressure will return gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and chances of precipitation to the region this weekend.
SHORT TERM
Today through Friday.
A broad area of low pressure that has essentially parked over the region since last week will shift eastward over central Arizona once again today. Precipitable water (PWAT) values over southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona continue to range from 0.50" to 0.60" this morning. Through the day today, this moisture will slowly diminish as the low continues to shift eastward out of our forecast area. However, before it fully exits, persistent vorticity advection coupled with between 250 and 500 J/kg of CAPE across Mohave County and the lower Colorado River Valley will return chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area this afternoon. Best chances will exist in central and southern Mohave County, though cannot rule out instances of shower activity in southern Clark and eastern San Bernardino counties. Rain totals will generally remain less than 0.25", though rain rates will be higher beneath thunderstorms that form as well as over the higher terrain, with up to 0.50" locally possible. Along the northern and western edges of the moisture field, DCAPE values could exceed 500 J/kg, resulting in gusty winds up to 40 mph with thunderstorm development - similar to yesterday. Shower activity will subside after sunset.
On Wednesday, far eastern portions of Mohave County will have minimal chances of shower activity as the aforementioned area of low pressure opens up and pushes into New Mexico. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure will finally set up over the Desert Southwest, which will allow temperatures to increase to above-average through the remainder of the work week. 30% chance of Las Vegas experiencing the first 80 degree day of the year on Friday.
Chances of 80F in Las Vegas on Thursday and Friday have come down somewhat from the previous forecast package, likely due to a premature squashing of the midweek ridge as well as the addition of cloud debris from a broad area of low pressure pushing into the Pacific Northwest. More on this in the LONG TERM section.
LONG TERM
Saturday through Monday.
There is decent agreement in long range ensemble means that a broad trough will push inland over the weekend, though there continues to be disagreement in the strength and positioning of the trough as it moves east. All solutions for this weekend would bring increasing southwest winds to the region with increasing confidence for widespread impactful wind gusts. Saturday currently shows the highest and most widespread potential for impactful winds as ensembles show moderate to high probabilities for the typical windy south-southwest belt from the western Mojave Desert through southern Nevada into northwest Arizona. Will need to watch for downslope potential near the Sierra and Spring Mountains; however, downslope winds will depend on the exact orientation of the trough as it moves inland. Breezy winds will continue into Sunday, particularly in the western Mojave Desert where EFIs are highlighting anomalous winds.
Models diverge in how and if the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward early next week. Winds should diminish for the start of the work week compared to the weekend, but the threat for impactful winds continuing into Monday is not zero.
Lower confidence in impacts outside of winds for the extended period. Precipitation is possible through the period, especially in the Sierra and southern Great Basin; however, amounts and precipitation potential will depend on the exact trajectory of the system and how quickly it deepens once is moves inland. High confidence that temperatures will cool down with well below normal temperatures early next week.
AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Light winds this morning will become northeast after 16z with speeds generally between 6-8 knots; however, occasional gusts up to 12 knots can't be ruled out in the afternoon. Winds will become light and variable around sunset and gradually shift more to the southwest around 6 knots by mid evening and overnight. FEW-SCT clouds around 10k feet with occasional clouds down to 8k feet at times. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is possible this afternoon across northwest Arizona, but not expected to impact airport operations.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds will generally remain under 10 knots across the region with wind direction favoring a northwest to northeast direction. Most TAF sites will see FEW-SCT clouds 8-10k feet. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over NW Arizona and there is some potential outflow from these storms may produce erratic, gusty conditions at KIFP and potentially KEED as well.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 235 AM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Chances of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms continue for northwestern Arizona and portions of far southern Nevada and far southeastern California through the evening.
Conditions will dry out midweek as temperatures increase above seasonal averages. An additional broad area of low pressure will return gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and chances of precipitation to the region this weekend.
SHORT TERM
Today through Friday.
A broad area of low pressure that has essentially parked over the region since last week will shift eastward over central Arizona once again today. Precipitable water (PWAT) values over southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona continue to range from 0.50" to 0.60" this morning. Through the day today, this moisture will slowly diminish as the low continues to shift eastward out of our forecast area. However, before it fully exits, persistent vorticity advection coupled with between 250 and 500 J/kg of CAPE across Mohave County and the lower Colorado River Valley will return chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area this afternoon. Best chances will exist in central and southern Mohave County, though cannot rule out instances of shower activity in southern Clark and eastern San Bernardino counties. Rain totals will generally remain less than 0.25", though rain rates will be higher beneath thunderstorms that form as well as over the higher terrain, with up to 0.50" locally possible. Along the northern and western edges of the moisture field, DCAPE values could exceed 500 J/kg, resulting in gusty winds up to 40 mph with thunderstorm development - similar to yesterday. Shower activity will subside after sunset.
On Wednesday, far eastern portions of Mohave County will have minimal chances of shower activity as the aforementioned area of low pressure opens up and pushes into New Mexico. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure will finally set up over the Desert Southwest, which will allow temperatures to increase to above-average through the remainder of the work week. 30% chance of Las Vegas experiencing the first 80 degree day of the year on Friday.
Chances of 80F in Las Vegas on Thursday and Friday have come down somewhat from the previous forecast package, likely due to a premature squashing of the midweek ridge as well as the addition of cloud debris from a broad area of low pressure pushing into the Pacific Northwest. More on this in the LONG TERM section.
LONG TERM
Saturday through Monday.
There is decent agreement in long range ensemble means that a broad trough will push inland over the weekend, though there continues to be disagreement in the strength and positioning of the trough as it moves east. All solutions for this weekend would bring increasing southwest winds to the region with increasing confidence for widespread impactful wind gusts. Saturday currently shows the highest and most widespread potential for impactful winds as ensembles show moderate to high probabilities for the typical windy south-southwest belt from the western Mojave Desert through southern Nevada into northwest Arizona. Will need to watch for downslope potential near the Sierra and Spring Mountains; however, downslope winds will depend on the exact orientation of the trough as it moves inland. Breezy winds will continue into Sunday, particularly in the western Mojave Desert where EFIs are highlighting anomalous winds.
Models diverge in how and if the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward early next week. Winds should diminish for the start of the work week compared to the weekend, but the threat for impactful winds continuing into Monday is not zero.
Lower confidence in impacts outside of winds for the extended period. Precipitation is possible through the period, especially in the Sierra and southern Great Basin; however, amounts and precipitation potential will depend on the exact trajectory of the system and how quickly it deepens once is moves inland. High confidence that temperatures will cool down with well below normal temperatures early next week.
AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Light winds this morning will become northeast after 16z with speeds generally between 6-8 knots; however, occasional gusts up to 12 knots can't be ruled out in the afternoon. Winds will become light and variable around sunset and gradually shift more to the southwest around 6 knots by mid evening and overnight. FEW-SCT clouds around 10k feet with occasional clouds down to 8k feet at times. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is possible this afternoon across northwest Arizona, but not expected to impact airport operations.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds will generally remain under 10 knots across the region with wind direction favoring a northwest to northeast direction. Most TAF sites will see FEW-SCT clouds 8-10k feet. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over NW Arizona and there is some potential outflow from these storms may produce erratic, gusty conditions at KIFP and potentially KEED as well.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KIGM KINGMAN,AZ | 5 sm | 65 min | SE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 45°F | 39°F | 81% | 30.08 |
Las Vegas, NV,
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