Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Russellville, AR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday June 23, 2018 6:26 PM CDT (23:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:30PMMoonset 2:06AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Russellville, AR
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location: 35.3, -93.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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Fxus64 klzk 232041
afdlzk
area forecast discussion
national weather service little rock ar
341 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
A complex forecast is evolving this afternoon, with the potential
for severe thunderstorms late this evening through the overnight
hours. While confidence in storms developing is low, if they do
materialize, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and torrential
rainfall will all be possible. The greatest risk appears to exist
across portions of central and northern arkansas.

Short term Today through Monday
unfortunately, concrete details pertaining to the forecast through
tomorrow morning remain elusive as a complex convective scenario
continues evolving. 19z objective analysis highlights a favorable
synoptic pattern, characterized by broad mid-level troughing across
the central CONUS and surface troughing stretching from west tx
northeastward into southern ok. A belt of enhanced moisture at h850
stretches roughly west-to-east from the tx panhandle to near
memphis, tn and is generally juxtaposed with a broad area of deep
layer moisture flux convergence and lower boundary layer
confluent flow. Throughout the morning, light showers have
persisted where these subtle forcing mechanisms have been
favorably overlapped; although radar trends indicate a decrease in
precip over the last hour or so, likely due to dry air
entrainment near the ok ar border.

At the surface, two fairly distinct boundaries were noted as of
early afternoon: a convectively-reinforced warm front stretching
from southwestern ok eastward into tn, and the aforementioned west-
to-east oriented confluence axis from western ok through central ar.

The overall pop fields and severe risk are heavily predicated on how
these features evolve this afternoon, and this remains a major point
of contention with the going forecast. The current thinking has the
warm front gradually lifting north into central and perhaps northern
ar late this evening, after which the boundary should become quasi-
stationary and will act to focus any convection that manages to
develop.

An additional point of contention is the timing of an approaching
upper impulse noted on WV imagery. 19z analysis places the impulse
across southern ok with the expectation it will eject across the
area this evening and overnight. The additional forcing it provides
could be enough to initiate convection, but it remains unclear how
favorable the timing of this approaching impulse will be with
respect to other key features, namely frontal timing position.

Model guidance has offered little more than frustration so far
today, with the hrrr entirely out to lunch and questionable
consistency among other model solutions, although the going trend is
for less convective coverage or, more frustratingly, a failure for
convection to initiate. The NAM namnest have remained most insistent
in generating convection across west-central ar after 00z this
evening, with storms overspreading northern ar in the 06-12z time
frame. Other solutions have trended toward less convective coverage
or, more frustratingly, no convective initiation at all. Not ready
to wipe out pops altogether, so gave heavy preference to the rap
given its relatively decent grasp on hourly trends. Incorporating
its solution with the remaining body of evidence yields lower-
confidence pops, initially across central ar, and shifting into
northern ar overnight. The timing and placement of pops was
generally tied to the position of the surface warm front as well as
a notable area of deformation and moisture axis aloft.

If convection can initiate, the overall environment will certainly
be supportive of severe storms overnight, with MLCAPE values on the
order of 3000 j kg and over 1000 j kg of dcape. Deep shear values
around 30 kts should promote minimal organization, although an
overall lack of significant kinematic support suggests any storms
that develop will be largely driven by cold pool dynamics. Damaging
winds appear to be the main threat, followed by the potential of an
isolated tornado, especially INVOF the warm front. Again, this is if
convection initiates in the first place. Confidence is low for
initiation, but high in severe potential if convection materializes.

As upper ridging begins building in later in the period, subsidence
will increase and precip chances will virtually disappear save for
far northwestern ar. Expect a warming trend through the end of the
period, with highs back in the low-to-mid 90s by Monday afternoon.

Lows will range from the low-to-mid 70s each night.

Cooper

Long term Monday night through Saturday
models all in decent enough agreement that one model is not really
favored versus another. Models all agree in the general synoptic
pattern with the usual timing and strength differences that always
show up as the period progresses. Bottom line is all models are
showing a return to very warm and dry conditions across the cwa.

Period initiates with upper trough upper low moving through the
central plains and broad ridging over the southeast conus. Strong
thunderstorms will be possible with this upper low Tuesday but it
looks like most will stay to the north of the state although a few
of them dropping onto far northern arkansas can not be discounted.

Even after this upper system passes through, models continuously
generate convection Wednesday which again could skirt the northern
most counties.

Come Thursday and beyond, models all agree that upper level ridging
will build over the region. This will basically cut off any chance
of precipitation although a diurnally driven storm can never be
ruled out in this environment. High temperatures will soar into the
90s and its possible a couple of locations could see 100 degrees.

Heat related headlines may be needed as the week progresses.

Goudsward

Preliminary point temps pops
Batesville ar 86 73 91 74 20 50 30 10
camden ar 94 76 95 75 20 0 0 0
harrison ar 84 69 87 71 20 40 20 10
hot springs ar 90 76 92 75 30 20 10 0
little rock ar 89 75 93 74 30 20 10 0
monticello ar 91 77 92 75 20 10 0 0
mount ida ar 90 74 91 74 30 30 10 0
mountain home ar 84 70 88 72 20 30 30 10
newport ar 86 74 91 74 20 50 30 10
pine bluff ar 90 75 92 74 30 20 0 0
russellville ar 87 74 92 74 20 50 20 10
searcy ar 88 74 93 73 20 50 20 10
stuttgart ar 89 75 92 74 30 30 0 0

Lzk watches warnings advisories None.

Short term... Cooper long term... Goudsward


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Russelville Municipal Airport, AR4 mi33 minWSW 610.00 miFair89°F66°F47%1008 hPa

Wind History from RUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NW3SW3NE4CalmCalmS4CalmNW5SW5W14E5CalmS6SW7SE3W8S6Calm55SW8W7W6
1 day agoW13
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W8SW4S4S3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW7NW9W9W10NW9W11W10W10W6
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2 days ago3S55CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW9W8NW8NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Little Rock, AR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Little Rock, AR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.