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FXUS64 KLZK 041924 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 224 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Warm/humid conditions will remain in place across the area through the short term portion of the forecast along with frequent rain chances.

W-SW H500 flow will be in place overhead through the period with a notable shortwave expected to lift across the state later tonight through early Monday morning. Storms associated with this wave across west Texas this evening are expected merge into a large TS complex and build east across Arkansas on Sunday. A brief break in activity is expected Monday before a secondary wave lifts across the area and additional showers and thunderstorms should develop near the end of the period.

Overall severe threat should remain low with some possibility for a few storms to produce gusty winds and hail. Some locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding as well.

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

An unsettled weather pattern takes hold into the day on Tuesday and will remain in place for much of the long-term forecast period. On Tuesday an upper lvl negatively tilted trof axis approaches the Central Plains region of the CONUS in conjunction with a sfc low pressure center positioned across the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with an attendant southward extending cold front and dryline that will initiate storms on Monday. A parameter space of strong southerly sfc flow which will advect warm air temperatures and appreciable dewpoint temperatures into the state setting the table for the possibility of severe weather across much of the state will take place. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has already outlined a slight risk for severe weather across portions of the CWA with possible upgrades to come in future outlooks closer to Tuesday.
Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Tuesday. It will become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be, but the parameter space across the CWA will be primed for all hazards of severe weather.

Into Wednesday, an upper lvl closed low positions over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with a pronounced southern stream of which will include a 70 to 80+ knot jet axis will be present over the state. At the sfc, the same parameter space will exist from Monday with the addition of upper lvl dynamics in place and closer sfc lvl features including: a localized low pressure center across Oklahoma and attendant southward extending dryline with a cold front approaching from the northwest as a result from the parent sfc low pressure center fixated across the Northern Plains region of the CONUS. Again, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center), on Wednesday has outlined a slight risk for severe weather which includes a large portion of the state of Arkansas. Expect a second round of severe weather on Wednesday, with this severe weather threat looking to be a larger area that includes most of the CWA Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Wednesday. It will become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be, but the region across the CWA and most of the state will be suspect to all hazards of severe weather.

THURSDAY:

The cold front that been to our west-northwest finally will track across the state on Thursday keeping the chance for rain and storms in the forecast. Expect rain and storms to remain a possibility on Thursday with a gradual shift in cooler temperatures to begin to work in behind the cold front which will bring our temperatures on Friday and into Saturday closer to normal and even slightly below normal for this time of the year compared to climatological normals.

FRIDAY/NEXT SATURDAY:

On Friday, the cold front will have completed the journey across the Natural State; however, the cold front is forecast to begin slowing down near the southeastern part of the state becoming a stationary boundary along the I-20 corridor across Louisiana and Mississippi so I have kept the possibility of POPs across southern Arkansas. On Saturday, dry conditions are forecast to be present statewide as the boundary moves well to the south and east of the CWA Expect cooler weather overall with temperatures near to below

In relation to temperatures, over the period from Tuesday through Thursday, with respect to both low and high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal compared to climatological normals over the same timeframe. Then behind the cold front, temperatures on Friday and into Saturday closer to normal and even slightly below normal for this time of the year compared to climatological normals.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Generally VFR conditions across the area with isolated to scattered showers/storms causing brief disruptions through the afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable except when impacted by TS activity. Cigs will largely remain VFR through tonight. More widespread RA/TS activity is expected to overspread the state from SW to NE through the day Sunday which will lead to deteriorating conditions with time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 63 76 63 83 / 40 90 80 50 Camden AR 64 76 63 82 / 30 80 50 40 Harrison AR 60 70 60 80 / 30 90 50 30 Hot Springs AR 64 73 63 81 / 30 90 50 30 Little Rock AR 67 76 66 84 / 20 90 60 40 Monticello AR 67 78 66 84 / 20 80 60 30 Mount Ida AR 63 73 63 81 / 40 90 40 50 Mountain Home AR 60 71 61 81 / 30 90 60 40 Newport AR 64 78 64 82 / 30 90 80 40 Pine Bluff AR 66 77 65 83 / 20 90 60 40 Russellville AR 64 73 63 82 / 30 90 50 30 Searcy AR 64 77 63 83 / 30 90 70 40 Stuttgart AR 67 77 66 83 / 20 90 70 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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