Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Russellville, AR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 1:00 AM CST (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:11AMMoonset 9:55PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Russellville, AR
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location: 35.3, -93.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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Fxus64 klzk 120523 aab
afdlzk
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service little rock ar
1123 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018

Aviation
For the 06z tafs,VFR conditions expected tonight, with MVFR
conditions returning to the forecast Wednesday as low clouds and
light rain drizzle enter the state. Winds will also be elevated,
with wind shear likely during the day, primarily across the
central portions of the state.

Prev discussion (issued 516 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018)
discussion...

updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below...

aviation...

expectVFR conditions to start this TAF period... But as moisture
lifts north during the daytime hrs on wed... MVFR CIGS will be seen
for many sites. Some dz may also be seen.

Prev discussion... (issued 253 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018)
short term... Tonight through Thursday
latest satellite imagery indicates generally clear conditions across
the forecast area. Mid and high clouds were noted over the
southern plains, moving to the east. These clouds will increase
over the forecast area overnight.

Satellite imagery indicates closed energy approaching the southern
california coast. This energy is forecast to dampen as it moves
eastward in a fast southern stream. Northern stream energy now
approaching the pacific northwest coast is forecast to amplify, as
it moves eastward over the high plains late in period. Atmospheric
response over the mid south to this approaching energy will show a
deep southerly flow development, and associated moisture
transport. Considerable condensation pressure deficits will need
to be overcome for initial precipitation development, however
widespread precipitation is expected by early Thursday. Conditions
for excessive rainfall will need to be monitored closely late in
the period.

Long term... Thursday night through Tuesday
rather vigorous upper level system will be dropping down across the
southern rockies during the short term, spawning a surface low that
will kick toward us across the southern plains. The beginning of the
extended term will start out with the upper low over the vicinity of
west texas, with a sfc low over the red river area of tx ok.

The upper low will drive across ar and into the sern us during
the extended term. ECMWF and GFS are not too terribly different
in handling this system, but the canadian is definitely more
progressive and moving the system out much more quickly.

Overall I am leaning toward a blend of the gfs ECMWF and will keep
pops fairly high in the early periods of the forecast. A couple of
questions that have to be answered are: 1) will it be cold enough
for wintry weather and 2) is there enough instability for
thunderstorms.

At the moment it does not look to be cold enough for wintry pcpn,
although I always do have to pause and remember how many times the
back side of an upper low has surprised us with some light snowfall
during this time of the year. At the moment it doesn't look like
this will happen. As for instability, I am more or less going with
showers and isolated thunder across the southern half of the
forecast area. Instability does not look to significant at the
moment, but this is one factor that could change as this system
evolves.

After this system moves out of the area, the models do have quite a
bit more difficulty deciding on what will happen over the area.

Overall high pressure will gradually build into the area, but it
should not be strong enough to usher in significantly colder
temperatures. Above the surface, the GFS pops up a bit of a weakened
ridge, but the ECMWF brings another trof into the area during the
same time frame. For the time frame I will keep things dry in the
latter half of the extended until the models start to come to a
better consensus. &&

Lzk watches warnings advisories None.

Aviation... Cross


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Russelville Municipal Airport, AR4 mi67 minS 310.00 miFair48°F33°F56%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from RUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW86S6S8S9S6S8S6S5CalmCalmSE3S3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW5N5NW5CalmCalmW54W4W3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN6NW4NW4NW5NW6NW4N5NW5N9N8N11
G16
NW8N10N8NE8W4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Little Rock, AR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Little Rock, AR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.