Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 11:25 PM   Moonset 7:49 AM

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FXUS64 KOUN 262346 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 646 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

There is a low chance that afternoon storm activity will continue this evening across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma. We should be quiet overnight as the next system begins to move closer to the southern Plains. Saturday is one of those days where it will be a great idea to remain weather aware for the ENTIRE day and evening, even if you wake up in the morning and it is cloudy (which it most likely will be for the entire day). We could see storms initiate as early as Saturday morning across portions of western north Texas, and move northeastward into central and north central Oklahoma. Initially, the thinking is that any stronger storms in the morning will have the potential to produce large hail and a few tornadoes if they can be surfaced-based. Continuous storms throughout the morning are very well in the realm of possibilities. Now, what will that do to the afternoon and evening set up? Well, truth be told, there is still uncertainty as to how much it will temper afternoon and evening convection, just given the parameter space. If western Oklahoma, especially along the dryline, can remain convection free until the afternoon, then storms that form along the dryline later in the afternoon and evening will pose the risk for significant severe weather.
Meridional flow relative to the boundary will support storm interaction, which will limit discrete storms. Nevertheless, with sufficient deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates supporting MLCAPE of up to 3500 J/kg, and low-level curvature of the hodograph, any stronger storm could produce very large hail (up to baseballs) and intense tornadoes. As the aforementioned trough overspread the Panhandles and western Oklahoma during the early evening, multiple storms are expected to initiate along the dryline and form into a line. This line will slowly move eastward and will affect much of the area overnight. At this point, damaging winds and tornadoes will be main threats, especially as a low-level jet ramps up after sunset.

In addition to all of the severe weather...with there being multiple rounds of storms, a flooding threat is expected across portions of north central, central, and southern Oklahoma. Most locations will only see 2-3 inches, but there will be localized areas that could see 4-6 inches of rain by Sunday morning.

Please have multiple ways to receive warnings Saturday. Please have WEA turned on on your cellular device, and tell your family/friends who live across the western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western north Texas to be weather aware the entire day! Have your plan in place now, it could save your life!

Bunker

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Remnant portions of the QLCS will still be lingering by Sunday morning with damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding as the main threats. This will mainly impact portions of east central, south central, and southeastern Oklahoma. We could see some redevelopment Sunday afternoon across east central down to south central and southeast Oklahoma, especially if there are any remnant boundaries that linger from the morning convection.
Nevertheless, severe storms are still possible in the afternoon, with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.

Daily chances of thunderstorms are possible throughout the week, but any severe chances are uncertain at this time. A warm up is expected through the middle of the week before a cold front moves in during the latter part of the week and give us a brief cool down.

Bunker

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Gusty south winds will persist until 272400. MVFR ceilings are expected to form tonight and last into Saturday morning.
Thunderstorms are expected to form near KSPS and KLAW before sunrise. Severe storms, including tornadoes, are possible in the afternoon north to south through all of central Oklahoma.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 66 76 59 78 / 0 80 70 30 Hobart OK 60 79 55 81 / 10 70 40 10 Wichita Falls TX 66 78 57 81 / 10 80 70 10 Gage OK 55 85 51 79 / 0 30 10 10 Ponca City OK 65 80 59 79 / 0 80 70 40 Durant OK 68 81 62 77 / 30 70 90 80

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for OKZ020-025-026-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.

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