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FXUS64 KOUN 062349 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX 649 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

**SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT**

SUMMARY - All the ingredients still appear to be coming together for a significant severe event as a potent shortwave trough ejects into the plains later this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection is underway with low stratus seen across much of the forecast area. Moisture advection will continue through the day, contributing to strong instability by peak daytime heating. Wind fields will also be strong, with large, curved hodographs seen in model soundings across much of the area, especially towards and after 00z as the low level jet ramps up.

With high confidence that the necessary ingredients will be there, the biggest question mark remaining is storm coverage and how far south storms will develop as the greatest forcing from the trough passes largely to our north, i.e. will we see widespread thunderstorm development or just a couple scattered (likely intense)
storms. For now, it appears storm coverage will be greatest closer to the Kansas border, tapering to isolated near and south of I-40.
Storm mode is a secondary uncertainty, with several of the CAMs suggesting a faster transition to a more linear mode across northern Oklahoma, which could decrease the hail threat but increase the wind threat (lower probability scenario for now). Tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode.

SEVERE HAZARDS - The overall environment will support large to giant hail (>3" in diameter) and significant, long-track tornadoes with any discrete supercell that develops. Damaging wind gusts will also be a concern, especially if we see high-precipitation supercells and/or a transition to more linear modes later on. The environment will remain supportive of severe weather, including tornadoes, well after dark. In fact, the tornado environment will only become more favorable after dark as low-level wind shear maximizes and influx of a moist and unstable airmass continues. Additionally, thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding, especially in areas that have seen excessive rainfall recently.

STORM MOTION - Storm motion will generally be northeast or east- northeast at 40-50 mph, with right-moving supercells moving east or east-northeast at 30-35 mph.

TIMING - Convective development is expected first across northwest and/or western OK by 2-4 PM as the initial forcing with the shortwave impinges on the dryline. These storms will continue east- northeastward into north-central OK by early evening (6pm to midnight). There is a lower risk for more isolated thunderstorms developing out ahead of the main line in northern/central OK between 4-8 PM. The threat could linger past midnight across eastern/southeastern parts of the area, but uncertainty is greater here on if we will see storms develop this far south and east.

Bottom line: Not everyone will see a storm today, but any storm that develops will be capable of significant severe weather and should be taken seriously this afternoon through late this evening!

Day/Ware

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Fair weather is expected Tuesday with sunny skies and highs in the 80s.

Another upper short wave will pass by on Wednesday, bringing the next chance of showers and storms to southeast portions of the forecast area. An early cold front will be draped southeast of the I- 44 corridor by noon, keeping moisture (and, thus, storm chances)
confined to areas southeast of the front. Instability and shear will support severe weather with these storms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threat.

After Wednesday, precipitation chances drop off with only low PoPs scattered here and there (peaking around 30% this weekend). For now, nothing stands out to indicate any severe risk after Wednesday.

Day

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Severe thunderstorms remain expected across most of the terminals, with very strong winds/shear, hail, heavy rain, and tornadoes all possible. Sites to the south and west do not have as favorable thunderstorm probabilities. Storms should generally end after midnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 54 81 64 79 / 50 0 0 10 Hobart OK 51 83 57 81 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 55 84 66 82 / 20 0 0 10 Gage OK 49 85 51 78 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 51 81 58 77 / 80 0 10 10 Durant OK 67 85 68 87 / 30 0 10 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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