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FXUS64 KOUN 031958 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Texas South Plains later this afternoon. The remnants of this activity--especially any left splits--may affect western north Texas this evening before dissipating. However, with the trend of initiation farther to the southwest, it appears the chance of severe weather will be spatiotemporally limited. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kansas and consolidate into a complex with the remnants moving into northern Oklahoma late tonight into Saturday morning. These thunderstorms will have a threat for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, which should weaken with southward extent.

By Saturday afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours along the boundary from the morning thunderstorms across Oklahoma. In addition, a complex of thunderstorms will likely develop across the Texas panhandle and western north Texas that will move eastward across at least the southern half of the area during the overnight hours. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and flooding will be the potential hazards with the primary hazard becoming flooding.

Given the recent heavy rainfall, we issued a Flood Watch from 7 PM tonight through 1 PM Sunday for all locations except northwest into west central Oklahoma (where rainfall amounts have been lighter the last week). Additional heavy rainfall will result in a risk of flooding through Sunday morning.

Mahale

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Monday: There is the potential for a significant severe weather event Monday afternoon and evening. A negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains on Monday with a moist, highly sheared, and unstable air mass ahead of a dryline. The synoptic-scale pattern is a classic severe weather outbreak across the Plains with a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

While there is some variation on the mesoscale details among deterministic models and ensemble members (e.g., character of the mid/upper level trough, location of the dryline, and the magnitude of capping) that will affect the location and magnitude the severe weather risk, it is important to stay weather aware on Monday as the worst case scenario (i.e., How bad could it be?)
for the event is quite high with the potential for significant supercells.

Tuesday: As the mid-level trough lifts to the northeast, the trailing dryline may stall across east central into southeast Oklahoma. While the dryline will be somewhat diffuse, there is a low chance thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon with a modest mid-level flow persisting across the Southern Plains.

Wednesday: Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, especially across southeast Oklahoma with the dryline still in place.

Thursday: There may finally be a lull in the risk for severe weather with a cold front moving through the area with a drier air mass advecting southward into the area.

Mahale

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low stratus will continue to affect most TAF sites through the afternoon, and will affect all TAF sites later in the period.
There is a low chance that storms move into portions of western Oklahoma and northern Oklahoma overnight. Southeasterly winds will shift towards the north as a cold front moves in early Saturday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 63 76 60 72 / 30 70 80 80 Hobart OK 59 74 57 74 / 40 70 90 60 Wichita Falls TX 63 79 62 76 / 30 50 90 60 Gage OK 52 69 51 75 / 80 50 60 40 Ponca City OK 61 73 56 71 / 60 70 60 70 Durant OK 64 79 64 77 / 20 40 70 80

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

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