Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 3:08 PM   Moonset 2:47 AM

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FXUS64 KOUN 182007 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 307 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Plenty of sunshine and warm conditions are in place this afternoon with temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Relatively light winds and dewpoints near 60 degrees are making it feel a bit warmer as well. There is still a very low chance (~10%) for storms near the Kansas border through the remainder of the afternoon, but expect the bulk of this activity will remain to our north.

Moisture increases further over the area on Sunday as a surface low deepens to our west and southerly flow strengthens during the day.
This will help set the stage for thunderstorm development as a shortwave approaches the area during the afternoon, providing additional lift. Isolated convection appears possible along a dryline that will be located near the western OK and TX panhandle border, with additional convection expected to form across southern Kansas where capping will be weaker and lift from the wave will be greater. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, with a window for an isolated tornado as the low level jet strengthens during the early evening, especially if any isolated supercells can become established. Upscale growth of thunderstorms across southern Kansas then appears likely as we head later into the evening, with potential for southeastward propagation into northern or perhaps central Oklahoma Sunday night, bringing a risk for damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Ware

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Thunderstorm chances decrease on Monday as shortwave ridging moves overhead, with temperatures remaining quite warm, especially to the west of the dryline across southwest OK and western north TX where highs will approach 100 degrees.

A stronger shortwave trough will the approach the area on Tuesday, but the timing of the wave appears to place it east of the area by peak daytime heating. This could act to limit thunderstorm coverage until a cold front enters the area later in the evening.
Nevertheless, with a moist and highly unstable airmass in place severe thunderstorms will be possible across mainly central and eastern Oklahoma late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

The cold front is expected to make it into southeast OK on Wednesday before stalling, with additional thunderstorm chances expected here Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. This front will try to lift northward on Thursday ahead of another shortwave, but its northward progress will greatly depend on existing convection Wednesday night into Thursday morning, leading to a lot of uncertainty on where the front will end up during the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms will once again be possible Thursday afternoon and evening along the front.

Storm chances will then likely continue off and on Friday into the weekend as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place and shortwaves ripple across the area, though predictability regarding wave timing is low from this range.

Ware

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected. Light winds overnight will increase from the south after sunrise tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 65 89 69 91 / 0 0 30 0 Hobart OK 67 93 68 97 / 0 10 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 68 92 71 95 / 0 0 10 0 Gage OK 64 94 62 98 / 10 10 20 0 Ponca City OK 62 89 66 90 / 0 10 60 0 Durant OK 65 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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