Sunrise 6:58 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 11:44 PM   Moonset 8:07 AM

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FXUS64 KAMA 270857 AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Upper level trough continues to shift east from the Four Corners and will continue to drive the Fire Weather threat for today. Winds will be out of the west to southwest and will be breezy in the 20-30 mph range, with gusts up to 50 mph. The strongest winds are expected to be in the northwest Panhandles. As far as the dryline setup, it's expected to be in the far eastern Panhandles and push out of the area around 1 to 3 pm. Storms don't look likely, but there may be some that fire up right along the east and move quickly out of the Panhandles into western OK. The severe threat is pretty low give that by the time the storms go severe, they will likely be out of our area. We'll keep any eye on the dryline position this morning and make sure that everything is on track.
One thing that's been consistent this past month with the dryline setups, is that they tend to be a bit further west than the models depict, and they have been mixing east a bit slower than the models suggest. So if that's the case for today, then maybe we'll have a slightly better chance for severe weather in our eastern stack of counties. But right now, it's just looking like a critical Fire Weather day in the west and central Panhandles, and elevated in the east and southeast. Second thing to watch will be the pacific front that will move in later tonight, as it will help drive some cooler temperatures in the northwest. Some models suggested that we might drop into the mid 30s for the northwest Panhandles, which could lead to possible frost conditions. But have not gone that cold for the overnight lows, and the winds might just be high enough to avoid frost. Right now lows tonight will be in the upper 30s for the northwest to the lower 50s in the southeast. Also, the pacific front is progged to collide with the dryline overnight tonight and trigger a line of storms.
Confidence is high that this will not impact our area, as it's expected to be east of us, but we will keep an eye on that dryline as noted before, because if it doesn't mix far enough east and starts to retreat, then we could have a second round for the eastern Panhandles. Again, these are all very low probabilities (<10%), but still something to note. Something that's been interesting in the models is a hint at some low reflectivity's just west of the dryline late tonight as the Pacific Front arrives, and it's possible that we might get some elevated virga showers, which could result in some strong wind gusts with no lightning or thunder associated. Inverted V soundings are suggested along the eastern Panhandles during this time, but the mid level CAPE is very low, struggling to get 100-200 J/kg.

On Sunday the upper level trough will be passing to the north, with some cooler air over the Panhandles. We expect the highs to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the OK Panhandle and in the mid to upper 70s for the central and southern Panhandles. Winds on the back side of the cold front will not be too bad, only in the 15-20 mph range with some gusts around 25 mph, and that's really only expected in the northern TX and the OK Panhandle, with lighter northerly winds further south. Sunday night we start transitioning into a more zonal flow with warmer air returning, and we might even get an overnight shower or storm riding one of the perturbations in the zonal flow. Given how our precipitation chances have been over the past month (April 9th being the exception), not getting too excited with any overnight pops tomorrow night.

Weber

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Dry and warming zonal flow is expected Monday through Wednesday with temperatures likely hitting the 80s on Monday and very well we may have a mixed bag of upper 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds will pick up an RH values will come down on Tuesday and Wednesday for the western Panhandles and this will likely lead to more elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions. Thursday and Friday are a bit more uncertain as another weather system is projected to clip the Panhandles and could bring some showers or storms to the area. Highs have been lowered back into the 70s and NBM pops are around 15 to 25 percent for the central and eastern Panhandles.

Weber

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with southwest winds in the 10-15kt range through about 16z. Thereafter winds will pick up and be in the 20-25kt range with gusts up to 40kts through about 0-02z. Only potential for lowered categories is if we get blowing dust enough to reduce visibilities below VFR. At this time confidence is not high enough to not BLDU or note any vis restrictions.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Critical Fire Weather is expected for the western central and northern Texas Panhandle as well as the OK Panhandle. Winds will be out of the southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. RH values will be down in the 8 to 12 percent range. Overall RFTI's will range from 5 to 7 today.

Weber

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 79 44 72 47 / 0 10 0 10 Beaver OK 85 45 72 44 / 10 10 10 10 Boise City OK 74 38 67 40 / 10 20 10 20 Borger TX 84 47 76 47 / 0 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 79 42 75 45 / 0 0 0 10 Canyon TX 78 43 73 45 / 0 0 0 10 Clarendon TX 82 49 75 49 / 10 10 0 10 Dalhart TX 74 38 70 40 / 0 10 0 20 Guymon OK 79 42 69 42 / 10 10 0 20 Hereford TX 78 43 74 44 / 0 0 0 10 Lipscomb TX 85 48 74 48 / 20 10 0 10 Pampa TX 82 46 74 48 / 10 10 0 10 Shamrock TX 85 50 76 49 / 20 20 0 10 Wellington TX 86 51 77 50 / 30 20 0 0

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>004-006>009-011>013-016-017-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

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Amarillo, TX,