Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boys Ranch, TX
May 20, 2024 3:54 AM CDT (08:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:37 AM Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 5:22 PM Moonset 3:51 AM |
FXUS64 KAMA 200728 AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 228 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Another hot day is expected today across the area, but especially along and south of the Canadian River. Have opted to warm temperatures a couple degrees above NBM given that the 850mb temperatures will be slightly less than a degree warmer than yesterday. Did not feel comfortable warming temperatures much more than a couple degrees as high clouds are expected to move in around mid-afternoon, but the southwesterly winds will strengthen some.
Will not be issuing a Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon given the introduction of high clouds and unfavorable winds for heat enhancement in the Canyon(southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph) in the mid-afternoon. That said, still forecasting a high of around 103 degrees which is still quite dangerous for hiking activities.
Otherwise, RH-driven elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions are anticipated in the western combined Panhandles.
A shortwave trough will pass through tonight but no impactful weather is expected from it, but it will push the very warm 850mb temperatures out of the Panhandles. 850mb winds turn back to southwesterly during the day and will advect warm 850mb temperatures back into the area, but not nearly as warm as today. This will bring temperatures down into the upper-80s to mid-90s. A cold front will move into the Panhandles Tuesday night and potentially clear the CWA by the very end of this short-term period.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Wednesday will feature a break from the hot, near-record breaking temperatures as highs fall to slightly below average to near average. Winds turn from easterly to southeasterly and low-level moisture will begin to return to the Panhandles Wednesday night. An embedded shortwave trough will move toward the Panhandles Thursday as a dryline mixes east throughout the day. The big question will revolve around how far east the dryline will push by the time forcing arrives in the mid-afternoon. At this time, it seems as though the easternmost stack of TX Panhandle counties is favored to stay east of the dryline; around 50-70% of LREF ensemble guidance have dew points greater than 60 degrees in the eastern TX Panhandle.
If thunderstorms can develop east of the dryline, they would have the potential to become strong to severe with the primary threats being damaging winds and large hail.
A weak cold front moves in from the north Friday but may not make it through the Panhandles before further weakening/retreating. A dry weekend is expected with gradually warming temperatures.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR conditions are currently anticipated through the next 24 hours. Low ceilings are favored at KGUY later tonight along with possible visibility restrictions, but uncertainty about extent of cloud coverage precludes forecasting MVFR or IFR ceilings.
Amendments may be needed if cloud cover comes in more extensive.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 98 62 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 95 61 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 94 55 86 46 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 102 64 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 100 60 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 98 60 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 98 63 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 94 53 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 95 58 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 99 59 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 97 63 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 98 63 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 99 64 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 101 65 96 58 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 228 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Another hot day is expected today across the area, but especially along and south of the Canadian River. Have opted to warm temperatures a couple degrees above NBM given that the 850mb temperatures will be slightly less than a degree warmer than yesterday. Did not feel comfortable warming temperatures much more than a couple degrees as high clouds are expected to move in around mid-afternoon, but the southwesterly winds will strengthen some.
Will not be issuing a Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon given the introduction of high clouds and unfavorable winds for heat enhancement in the Canyon(southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph) in the mid-afternoon. That said, still forecasting a high of around 103 degrees which is still quite dangerous for hiking activities.
Otherwise, RH-driven elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions are anticipated in the western combined Panhandles.
A shortwave trough will pass through tonight but no impactful weather is expected from it, but it will push the very warm 850mb temperatures out of the Panhandles. 850mb winds turn back to southwesterly during the day and will advect warm 850mb temperatures back into the area, but not nearly as warm as today. This will bring temperatures down into the upper-80s to mid-90s. A cold front will move into the Panhandles Tuesday night and potentially clear the CWA by the very end of this short-term period.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Wednesday will feature a break from the hot, near-record breaking temperatures as highs fall to slightly below average to near average. Winds turn from easterly to southeasterly and low-level moisture will begin to return to the Panhandles Wednesday night. An embedded shortwave trough will move toward the Panhandles Thursday as a dryline mixes east throughout the day. The big question will revolve around how far east the dryline will push by the time forcing arrives in the mid-afternoon. At this time, it seems as though the easternmost stack of TX Panhandle counties is favored to stay east of the dryline; around 50-70% of LREF ensemble guidance have dew points greater than 60 degrees in the eastern TX Panhandle.
If thunderstorms can develop east of the dryline, they would have the potential to become strong to severe with the primary threats being damaging winds and large hail.
A weak cold front moves in from the north Friday but may not make it through the Panhandles before further weakening/retreating. A dry weekend is expected with gradually warming temperatures.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR conditions are currently anticipated through the next 24 hours. Low ceilings are favored at KGUY later tonight along with possible visibility restrictions, but uncertainty about extent of cloud coverage precludes forecasting MVFR or IFR ceilings.
Amendments may be needed if cloud cover comes in more extensive.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 98 62 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 95 61 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 94 55 86 46 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 102 64 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 100 60 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 98 60 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 98 63 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 94 53 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 95 58 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 99 59 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 97 63 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 98 63 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 99 64 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 101 65 96 58 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDUX MOORE COUNTY,TX | 20 sm | 19 min | SW 12 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 30°F | 31% | 29.77 |
Amarillo, TX,
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