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FXUS64 KMEG 270409 AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1109 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are possible later tonight, with a chance that a couple storms could be strong to severe near or west of the Mississippi River. Locally heavy rainfall and windy conditions are possible on Sunday and Monday as a cold front approaches and moves through the Mid-South. Thereafter, several disturbances look to result in rain chances staying elevated through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Mid-level ridging across the Mid-South has resulted in a warm front lifting north across the Mid-South. Rain chances will increase later today as a band of precipitation moves toward the Mid-South. Latest CAM guidance has been quite variable in terms of convective intensity. The storm environment this evening shows MUCAPE values from the HRRR coming in on the order of 250 J/kg to 500 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-35 knots. This could support elevated thunderstorms with an isolated threat of damaging winds and large hail, particularly along and west of the Mississippi River.

The next chance of impactful weather looks to be on Sunday evening and Monday as a cold front approaches and moves through the Mid-South. Winds ahead of this system are expected to increase in response to a tightening pressure gradient. Precipitation chances are also forecast to increase ahead of this system, potentially resulting in locally heavy rainfall. This is supported by the mean precipitable water values around 1.5 inches from the SREF and GEFS across portions of the Mid-South, which is above the 75th percentile value from observed sounding sites across the area. Given all of these factors, portions of the Mid- South have been placed in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday and Monday.

Thereafter, precipitation chances remain elevated on Tuesday as the front appears to wash out and move north slightly, as ridging builds across the Mid-South. The mid to late week pattern will feature several mid-level disturbances moving across a mostly zonal flow regime keeping our rain chances elevated through the end of the period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

South wind will increase again tomorrow as a deep surface low tracks out of the Plains across the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms may impact JBR late tomorrow but MEM, KML and TUP should remain rain-free. Winds should relax after sunset.



MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

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