Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nags Head, NC
March 19, 2024 3:56 AM EDT (07:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:07 AM Sunset 7:17 PM Moonrise 1:02 PM Moonset 3:25 AM |
AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 317 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
Today - NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this morning, then becoming W 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy late this morning, then diminishing to a moderate chop this afternoon.
Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves choppy.
Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Waves choppy.
Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Sat - SE winds around 20 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon, then becoming N in the evening, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, increasing to rough in the evening, then increasing to very rough after midnight. Rain likely .
AMZ200 125 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles -
an upper disturbance moves through the area tonight, bringing some chilly air to the area through Tuesday. Building high pressure will lead to slow improvement by the end of the week.
an upper disturbance moves through the area tonight, bringing some chilly air to the area through Tuesday. Building high pressure will lead to slow improvement by the end of the week.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 190651 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 251 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure remains in control through Wednesday, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 920 PM Monday...A vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL should be enough to support some light showers this evening and overnight, even though moisture is marginal with low PWATs and a shallow moisture layer. Cloud tops are cooling in the IR satellite imagery this evening and weak returns are indicated on radar.
However, the 00Z MHX raob continued to show considerable dry air in the low levels this evening, suggesting that most of the precipitation being observed on radar will fall as virga and evaporate before reaching the ground. The area with the best chance to see light measurable precipitation amounts (>= 0.10")
will be north of Highway 264 where deepest moisture and strongest forcing are forecast to occur. Will continue carrying 20-40% PoPs /highest north-lowest south/.
Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through the FA 6-9Z. Clearing skies will occur after the trough passes. A brief but strong NWerly surge of CAA will also immediately follow the trough passage with a couple hour period of wind gusts to 30 kt expected. MinTs in the low to mid 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and low level mixing persisting.
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 4 PM Monday...Tuesday morning the high pressure will be building in from the west, with NW flow continuing to bring drier air to ENC. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for much of mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section of the AFD for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s Tuesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 250 AM Tue...High pressure remains in place Wednesday. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend, bringing the potential for multiple impacts to the area, which could linger into early next week.
Wednesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS with high pressure remaining in control through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs climbing back to 65-70 deg with sunny skies. Then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday, with highs in the 50s and 60s. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible.
Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to spread in the guidance and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. The GFS continues to be the more progressive solution, while the 00z EC and CMC show a slower, stronger sfc low that lingers/stalls near or just off the coast into Monday while merging with cut off upper low. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, prolonged period of strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding section below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Continued to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. At this time best rain chances will be Friday night into Saturday...with winds peaking Saturday night into Sunday night.
Impacts along the coast could linger into Monday. Will continue to fine tune specifics over the next few days.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 615 PM Monday...VFR conditions with gusty winds are expected through the TAF period. Some light rain showers will be possible later this evening as an upper trough crosses the area. CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be lowering and approaching MVFR overnight, so have kept a SCT030 group for coastal terminals overnight. Winds gusts will approach 30 kt for a couple of hours late tonight as the trough crosses, then winds will briefly subside toward dawn. Skies clear rapidly once the trough axis clears very late tonight. Tuesday will bring clear skies and NW winds gusting to 20kts.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through Thursday. Breezy W winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday and Saturday with low pressure system impacting the area. Rain chances increase through the day Friday, becoming widespread moderate to heavy at times Friday night into Saturday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 920 PM Monday...Winds are currently variable 5-15kts this evening, and will become gusty NW'rly overnight as an upper trough passes through. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the Gulf Stream. A SCA is in place for all waters tonight, ending in the morning Tuesday. Seas are 2-4 ft, approaching 6ft for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. Waves will briefly diminish to start the night, before stronger winds from the approaching trough raise seas to 4-7ft, with seas forecast to subside to 2-5ft by Tuesday afternoon.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue into Wednesday night ahead of the cold front, with seas 3-6 ft. Will continue with SCA for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters through Wed eve/night. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt will be possible in the post frontal flow for a few hours Thursday morning. Flow will grad veer Thu night becoming E 10-15 kt, then increasing to 15-25 kt Friday, as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build to 4-6 ft by Friday afternoon with increasing onshore flow.
Very dangerous marine conditions expected to develop across the waters this weekend, then likely lingering into early next week, as a strong low pressure system impacts the waters. A prolonged period of gale force winds expected, with potential for storm force winds. Winds expected to peak Saturday night into Sunday night. Seas will peak at 10-15+ ft.
FIRE WEATHER
As of 250 AM Tue...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds.
Increased Fire Danger SPS continues for today.
Today - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts 20-25 mph.
Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-15 mph.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 250 AM Tue...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and this the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and beach erosion. Impacts may begin as early as Friday night, then peaking Saturday and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Breezy SE winds expected Friday night, becoming northerly by Sat night. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 251 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure remains in control through Wednesday, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 920 PM Monday...A vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL should be enough to support some light showers this evening and overnight, even though moisture is marginal with low PWATs and a shallow moisture layer. Cloud tops are cooling in the IR satellite imagery this evening and weak returns are indicated on radar.
However, the 00Z MHX raob continued to show considerable dry air in the low levels this evening, suggesting that most of the precipitation being observed on radar will fall as virga and evaporate before reaching the ground. The area with the best chance to see light measurable precipitation amounts (>= 0.10")
will be north of Highway 264 where deepest moisture and strongest forcing are forecast to occur. Will continue carrying 20-40% PoPs /highest north-lowest south/.
Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through the FA 6-9Z. Clearing skies will occur after the trough passes. A brief but strong NWerly surge of CAA will also immediately follow the trough passage with a couple hour period of wind gusts to 30 kt expected. MinTs in the low to mid 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and low level mixing persisting.
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 4 PM Monday...Tuesday morning the high pressure will be building in from the west, with NW flow continuing to bring drier air to ENC. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for much of mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section of the AFD for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s Tuesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 250 AM Tue...High pressure remains in place Wednesday. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend, bringing the potential for multiple impacts to the area, which could linger into early next week.
Wednesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS with high pressure remaining in control through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs climbing back to 65-70 deg with sunny skies. Then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday, with highs in the 50s and 60s. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible.
Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to spread in the guidance and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. The GFS continues to be the more progressive solution, while the 00z EC and CMC show a slower, stronger sfc low that lingers/stalls near or just off the coast into Monday while merging with cut off upper low. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, prolonged period of strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding section below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Continued to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. At this time best rain chances will be Friday night into Saturday...with winds peaking Saturday night into Sunday night.
Impacts along the coast could linger into Monday. Will continue to fine tune specifics over the next few days.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 615 PM Monday...VFR conditions with gusty winds are expected through the TAF period. Some light rain showers will be possible later this evening as an upper trough crosses the area. CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be lowering and approaching MVFR overnight, so have kept a SCT030 group for coastal terminals overnight. Winds gusts will approach 30 kt for a couple of hours late tonight as the trough crosses, then winds will briefly subside toward dawn. Skies clear rapidly once the trough axis clears very late tonight. Tuesday will bring clear skies and NW winds gusting to 20kts.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through Thursday. Breezy W winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday and Saturday with low pressure system impacting the area. Rain chances increase through the day Friday, becoming widespread moderate to heavy at times Friday night into Saturday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 920 PM Monday...Winds are currently variable 5-15kts this evening, and will become gusty NW'rly overnight as an upper trough passes through. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the Gulf Stream. A SCA is in place for all waters tonight, ending in the morning Tuesday. Seas are 2-4 ft, approaching 6ft for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. Waves will briefly diminish to start the night, before stronger winds from the approaching trough raise seas to 4-7ft, with seas forecast to subside to 2-5ft by Tuesday afternoon.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue into Wednesday night ahead of the cold front, with seas 3-6 ft. Will continue with SCA for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters through Wed eve/night. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt will be possible in the post frontal flow for a few hours Thursday morning. Flow will grad veer Thu night becoming E 10-15 kt, then increasing to 15-25 kt Friday, as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build to 4-6 ft by Friday afternoon with increasing onshore flow.
Very dangerous marine conditions expected to develop across the waters this weekend, then likely lingering into early next week, as a strong low pressure system impacts the waters. A prolonged period of gale force winds expected, with potential for storm force winds. Winds expected to peak Saturday night into Sunday night. Seas will peak at 10-15+ ft.
FIRE WEATHER
As of 250 AM Tue...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds.
Increased Fire Danger SPS continues for today.
Today - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts 20-25 mph.
Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-15 mph.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 250 AM Tue...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and this the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and beach erosion. Impacts may begin as early as Friday night, then peaking Saturday and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Breezy SE winds expected Friday night, becoming northerly by Sat night. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 8 mi | 56 min | N 16G | 40°F | 53°F | 29.92 | ||
44086 | 11 mi | 60 min | 50°F | 8 ft | ||||
44095 | 18 mi | 60 min | 50°F | 7 ft | ||||
44056 - Duck FRF, NC | 21 mi | 60 min | 51°F | 6 ft | ||||
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 | 21 mi | 56 min | N 25G | 43°F | 29.86 | |||
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) | 24 mi | 56 min | 44°F | 51°F | 7 ft | |||
41120 | 48 mi | 56 min | 54°F | 7 ft | ||||
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC | 49 mi | 56 min | N 31G | 43°F | 60°F | 29.88 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC | 6 sm | 26 min | NNE 13G21 | 10 sm | Overcast | 41°F | 30°F | 65% | 29.90 | |
KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC | 9 sm | 21 min | NNW 10G17 | 10 sm | Overcast | 41°F | 27°F | 56% | 29.88 |
Tide / Current for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:05 AM EDT 3.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:35 AM EDT 0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:01 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:22 PM EDT 2.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:31 PM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:05 AM EDT 3.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:35 AM EDT 0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:01 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:22 PM EDT 2.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:31 PM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12 am |
1.3 |
1 am |
1.9 |
2 am |
2.5 |
3 am |
2.9 |
4 am |
3.1 |
5 am |
3 |
6 am |
2.6 |
7 am |
2.1 |
8 am |
1.5 |
9 am |
0.9 |
10 am |
0.6 |
11 am |
0.6 |
12 pm |
0.9 |
1 pm |
1.4 |
2 pm |
1.9 |
3 pm |
2.4 |
4 pm |
2.6 |
5 pm |
2.6 |
6 pm |
2.3 |
7 pm |
1.8 |
8 pm |
1.2 |
9 pm |
0.7 |
10 pm |
0.4 |
11 pm |
0.4 |
Oregon Inlet Marina
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:20 AM EDT 0.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 12:51 PM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT 0.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:20 AM EDT 0.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 12:51 PM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT 0.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Oregon Inlet Marina, North Carolina, Tide feet
12 am |
0.1 |
1 am |
0.1 |
2 am |
0.2 |
3 am |
0.4 |
4 am |
0.5 |
5 am |
0.5 |
6 am |
0.5 |
7 am |
0.5 |
8 am |
0.4 |
9 am |
0.3 |
10 am |
0.2 |
11 am |
0.2 |
12 pm |
0.1 |
1 pm |
0.1 |
2 pm |
0.2 |
3 pm |
0.3 |
4 pm |
0.4 |
5 pm |
0.4 |
6 pm |
0.5 |
7 pm |
0.4 |
8 pm |
0.4 |
9 pm |
0.3 |
10 pm |
0.2 |
11 pm |
0.1 |
Morehead City, NC,
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