Nags Head, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nags Head, NC

May 1, 2024 11:00 AM EDT (15:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM
Moonrise 1:25 AM   Moonset 11:31 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024

Rest of today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and ne 2 ft at 10 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms late this morning. Isolated showers and tstms late.

Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 2 ft at 10 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu - E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 1 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 1 ft at 11 seconds.

Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 1 ft at 11 seconds.

Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 2 ft at 10 seconds.

Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.

Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.

Sun night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1000 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A weak surface trough will move through the area today. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nags Head, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 011400 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1000 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak surface trough will move through the area today. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 10 AM Wed...Weak wave currently analyzed moving through the FA this morning bringing some sct rain and clouds acrs the region. Thinking for this afternoon is that covg will be a bit more limited than prv thought, as 1) The current wave will be transiting off of the coast, and 2) Less upr forcing will be available for more robust and greater covg. Have therefore dropped pops, esp srn half of the FA. Latest meso suite still indicates some decent covg acrs the nern zones, where we retained 40-50% covg, but removed any likely pops out of the fcst. Severe threat should be limited, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two producing some 40-60 mph gusts, as previously mentioned.

Prev disc
As of 645 AM Wednesday

A weak upper level low is moving slowly east this morning, and has just now reached far western sections of ENC. Modest moisture advection and lift associated with the wave is combining with a modestly unstable airmass, supporting the ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity across southwestern sections of ENC. Short- term guidance has been struggling with the ongoing convection, with most of the guidance insisting the storms will weaken over the next hour or so. This hasn't been the case, and it's unclear how long the morning convection will last. Because the convection appears tied to the upper level wave, itself, and with the plume of instability extending east across much of ENC, it stands to reason that this activity will continue east through the morning. With daytime heating, instability will steadily build ahead of the wave, and there is the potential for the convection to strengthen some as it moves east. For now, though, a lack of stronger instability, plus very weak shear, is expected to keep the risk of strong/severe storms very low (<5% chance) this morning.

By this afternoon, modest moisture advection ahead of a southeastward-moving weak front should allow dewpoints to rise into the mid 60s. Heating of the moist boundary layer should support moderate instability, on the order of ~1000 j/kg SBCAPE.
Early in the afternoon, deep layer shear is forecast to be weak (~20kt). However, by mid to late afternoon, the flow aloft will become northwesterly atop a southerly SFC wind as the above- mentioned upper wave shifts further east. This will give a little curvature to the hodograph, and will lead to a modest increase in deep layer, directional shear to around 25-30kt. At face value, this type of environment is generally supportive of multicell clusters capable of gusty winds of 30-40 mph. The severe weather threat in an environment like this is low (<10% chance), but isn't zero. I suspect the "best" chance of seeing a marginally severe thunderstorm would be during the mid to late- afternoon period as the deep layer shear increases.

A couple of caveats with the thunderstorm coverage and intensity today. 1) Questionable forcing. Low-level convergence with the above- mentioned cold front is forecast to weaken with time as it approaches the coastal plain. Meanwhile, a seabreeze is expected to develop, and this may end up being the best focus of low-level convergence. Between the weakening front, the seabreeze, and some weak support with the upper level shortwave, there still appears to be a decent signal for scattered thunderstorms focused in the 12pm- 7pm timeframe. I didn't stray too far from the previous forecast regarding coverage today, but it should be noted that the lack of stronger forcing shows up in some short-term guidance with a lower coverage. I suspect the seabreeze will be the primary driver of convection this afternoon, with the surface front adding some support. The lack of stronger forcing should also help to keep the severe weather risk at bay as this will tend to lower the risk of deeper, more sustained, updrafts. 2) Morning convection. It's unclear what, if any, impact the morning convection will have on the coverage/intensity this afternoon. There isn't any source of dry air to scour out the low-level moisture, so it shouldn't take much heating to realize the modest instability forecast. For now, I'll leave the afternoon forecast as-is, but it's possible the morning convection will limit how much convection occurs this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

Thunderstorm activity should be diurnally-driven, with a downward trend in coverage and intensity after 7pm this evening.
In the wake of the thunderstorms, winds will be very light, or even calm, and skies will attempt to clear out. This plus whatever rain falls today should support an increased fog potential tonight. There is some uncertainty with how much clearing will occur, but the pattern, plus model guidance, supports a risk of dense fog.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 4 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled through early next week

- Best rain chances on Sunday

FORECAST DETAILS

Thursday...A ridge building overhead will send temps well into the 80s across the coastal plain while the beaches hang back in the low 70s. The afternoon seabreeze could support the development of a few showers as it moves inland.

Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week. Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week (25-30% Monday, 15-20% Tuesday). Saturday's high temps will be a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday before rebounding next week with highs expected to reach back into the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plain Tuesday.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12z Thursday/...
As of 645 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased TSRA risk today

- BR/FG likely tonight (60-80% chance), with IFR, or lower, conditions possible (30-50% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

SHRA and TSRA activity has been more widespread this morning than originally forecast, and the TAFs have been updated to reflect this trend. The ongoing activity will likely continue slowly east, eventually impacting PGV and EWN. It looks like the greatest TSRA risk this morning will be from OAJ to EWN. It's unclear what impact the morning TSRA will have on the afternoon TSRA potential, but for now, I'll leave the forecast as-is, and continue with a TSRA mention in the TAFs, focused in the 18-23z timeframe. Occasional low CIGs /VIS will accompany the SHRA and TSRA, with sub-VFR conditions expected at times. Once the TSRA move dissipate this evening, clearing skies and light winds are expected to lead to an increased risk of BR/FG. The potential is there for IFR/LIFR conditions to occur.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be expected.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

A weak cold front will move slowly southeast across the ENC waters late this afternoon through tonight. Because of the weak nature of the front, I do not expect a significant northerly wind surge to develop. In fact, a weakening gradient around the front is expected to keep winds light (5-15kt) for most of the day and into tonight. Seas of 3-4 ft are forecast to slowly lay down through tonight. However, the ongoing long-period ENE swell of 3-4 ft at 12-13s hasn't been modeled as well, and seas may not lay down as quick as forecast.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the central and southern waters this morning, associated with an upper level wave approaching from the west. During the afternoon hours, the thunderstorm threat will shift inland with the seabreeze, mainly impacting inland rivers and sounds. Some of those thunderstorms may work back towards the coastal waters this evening, but confidence in this is low. Once the thunderstorms dissipate, there will be an increased risk of fog. The potential exists for a period of sub 1SM visibilities during this time, and we'll monitor this in later forecasts in case a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms

FORECAST DETAILS

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NE on Thursday but will veer to the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday.
North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday-Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 8 mi43 min W 7G9.9 72°F 70°F30.00
44086 11 mi35 min 60°F4 ft
44095 18 mi35 min 60°F4 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi35 min 57°F2 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 21 mi43 min W 11G13 69°F 29.97
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 24 mi31 min 63°F 58°F4 ft
41082 25 mi121 min WSW 7.8 61°F 58°F29.98
41083 41 mi121 min 60°F 56°F29.99
44079 44 mi121 min 57°F 52°F29.98
41120 48 mi61 min 59°F3 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 49 mi43 min SW 7G11 66°F 63°F30.01


Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC 6 sm30 minNW 10G1410 smClear73°F64°F73%29.98
KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC 9 sm30 minW 0610 smClear72°F64°F78%29.96
Link to 5 minute data for KMQI


Wind History from MQI
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
   
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
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Wed -- 01:20 AM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:00 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:58 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
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3.2
1
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3.5
2
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3.4
3
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3
4
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2.4
5
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1.8
6
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1.1
7
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0.7
8
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0.5
9
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0.7
10
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1.1
11
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1.8
12
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2.4
1
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2.9
2
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3
3
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2.9
4
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2.4
5
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1.8
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1.2
7
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0.7
8
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0.5
9
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0.6
10
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1
11
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1.7



Tide / Current for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Roanoke Sound Channel
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Wed -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:41 AM EDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:19 PM EDT     0.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:38 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
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0.2
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0.3
2
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0.4
3
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0.5
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0.5
5
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0.5
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0.4
7
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0.3
8
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0.2
9
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0.1
10
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0.1
11
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0.1
12
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0.1
1
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0.2
2
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0.3
3
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0.4
4
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0.4
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0.4
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0.4
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0.3
8
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0.2
9
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0.1
10
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0.1
11
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0.1




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Morehead City, NC,



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