Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Ridge, TN
March 19, 2024 4:06 AM EDT (08:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:39 AM Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 1:38 PM Moonset 4:01 AM |
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 190732 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 332 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Key Messages:
1. Hard freeze this morning. Patchy frost where winds are lighter.
Winds have brought wind chills into the teens in higher elevations of northeast TN into southwest VA.
2. Dry weather continues today, with temperatures rebounding some from Monday in the afternoon into the 50s. Low relative humidities and breezy afternoon winds present higher fire danger again today.
Discussion:
The sharp upper level trough bringing in the below normal temperatures is moving across the forecast area early this morning with the winds beginning to subside at this time. Some low clouds associated with the cold upper trough linger in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia with a few flurries reported earlier in Wise County. These clouds were slowly eroding this morning. Relative humidity values are very low for this time of night. Most locations around 50 to 60 percent with dewpoints still in the teens. Temperatures are in the upper 20s to lower 30s and should fall a few more degrees as winds continue to decrease this morning. Relative humidity values should come up in the next few hours too. Because of the dry airmass frost will be patchy and only in areas sheltered from the wind.
For today the surface winds will shift to the southwest as upper trough exits to the northeast and surface high is centered to the south. There will be a tight pressure gradient and with the longer days and very dry airmass temperatures will warm into the 50s. The main weather concerns today will again be the very dry airmass associated with this system and another day of low relative humidities. Early this afternoon drier air aloft will mix down bringing some breezy winds to the surface. Another afternoon of elevated fire danger will be present. Will issue another Special Weather Statement for this this morning. Relative humidity values will be again around 20 to 25 percent. Possibly lower in some areas.
Winds should be 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon and could gust to around 25 to 30 mph.
Tonight the pressure gradient begins to relax but relative humidity values may stay lower in some areas where the southwest winds continue. Lows will vary from upper 30s in the more wind prone locations to lower 30s where the wind becomes light. Patchy frost will form in the more calm locations where humidity is higher.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Key Messages:
1. Dry conditions will continue Wednesday and Thursday with Wednesday being breezier and Thursday being drier.
2. Light rain is expected Friday into Friday night.
3. Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected on Saturday, followed by a warming trend.
Discussion:
Dry conditions and winds will continue to be the main weather story on Wednesday as a large area of high pressure sits near the Gulf Coast and a low pressure system moves across New England. Dewpoints should be a bit higher on Wednesday as the models show increasing moisture around 850 mb, so we won't have very dry air mixing down in the afternoon. However, there will still be a good pressure gradient across the region, mainly in our northern half, that will put W-SW winds at 10-20 mph in NE TN and SW VA, with gusts up to 30 mph. On Wednesday night, a cold front will move into the area from the north, and high pressure over the Great Lakes will push southward.
This will result in another period of sub-freezing temperatures in northern sections Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Increasing cloud cover should keep the southern and central sections in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Dewpoints will drop again behind the front, but winds should be lighter, less than 10 mph.
A shortwave trough in the southern stream will be moving east across the Deep South on Friday. Convective activity near the Gulf Coast should limit the northward advection of higher theta-e air. However, PoPs will be raised to the likely range on Friday as the trough moves overhead and upper divergence increases. A 30 kt SE 850 mb wind may produce some gusty winds in the mountains and foothills, but this appears to be short-lived so impacts should be minimal.
Precip should end Saturday morning once the trough axis shifts east of the Appalachians.
A high pressure ridge in an increasingly amplified midlevel flow will be over the region for Sunday and Monday, providing dry weather and a warming trend. With a southerly flow on Monday, highs should reach in the 60s to lower 70s again. The NBM wants to spread some low PoPs into the area ahead of a strengthening system in the Plains, but the GFS and ECMWF solutions suggest precip won't arrive until Monday night at the earliest.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Winds have decreased to 5 to 10 kts in the past few hours and expect that trend to continue overnight. Skies will be partly cloudy with mostly high level clouds but some 5K foot ceilings in and out at TRI with flurries possible a few more hours to the north of there. Clearing skies later from southwest to northeast.
No precipitation near the terminals tonight. Winds shift to the southwest Tuesday with gusts up to 25 knots during the afternoon.
VFR conditions expected entire forecast period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 39 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 36 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 32 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 332 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Key Messages:
1. Hard freeze this morning. Patchy frost where winds are lighter.
Winds have brought wind chills into the teens in higher elevations of northeast TN into southwest VA.
2. Dry weather continues today, with temperatures rebounding some from Monday in the afternoon into the 50s. Low relative humidities and breezy afternoon winds present higher fire danger again today.
Discussion:
The sharp upper level trough bringing in the below normal temperatures is moving across the forecast area early this morning with the winds beginning to subside at this time. Some low clouds associated with the cold upper trough linger in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia with a few flurries reported earlier in Wise County. These clouds were slowly eroding this morning. Relative humidity values are very low for this time of night. Most locations around 50 to 60 percent with dewpoints still in the teens. Temperatures are in the upper 20s to lower 30s and should fall a few more degrees as winds continue to decrease this morning. Relative humidity values should come up in the next few hours too. Because of the dry airmass frost will be patchy and only in areas sheltered from the wind.
For today the surface winds will shift to the southwest as upper trough exits to the northeast and surface high is centered to the south. There will be a tight pressure gradient and with the longer days and very dry airmass temperatures will warm into the 50s. The main weather concerns today will again be the very dry airmass associated with this system and another day of low relative humidities. Early this afternoon drier air aloft will mix down bringing some breezy winds to the surface. Another afternoon of elevated fire danger will be present. Will issue another Special Weather Statement for this this morning. Relative humidity values will be again around 20 to 25 percent. Possibly lower in some areas.
Winds should be 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon and could gust to around 25 to 30 mph.
Tonight the pressure gradient begins to relax but relative humidity values may stay lower in some areas where the southwest winds continue. Lows will vary from upper 30s in the more wind prone locations to lower 30s where the wind becomes light. Patchy frost will form in the more calm locations where humidity is higher.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Key Messages:
1. Dry conditions will continue Wednesday and Thursday with Wednesday being breezier and Thursday being drier.
2. Light rain is expected Friday into Friday night.
3. Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected on Saturday, followed by a warming trend.
Discussion:
Dry conditions and winds will continue to be the main weather story on Wednesday as a large area of high pressure sits near the Gulf Coast and a low pressure system moves across New England. Dewpoints should be a bit higher on Wednesday as the models show increasing moisture around 850 mb, so we won't have very dry air mixing down in the afternoon. However, there will still be a good pressure gradient across the region, mainly in our northern half, that will put W-SW winds at 10-20 mph in NE TN and SW VA, with gusts up to 30 mph. On Wednesday night, a cold front will move into the area from the north, and high pressure over the Great Lakes will push southward.
This will result in another period of sub-freezing temperatures in northern sections Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Increasing cloud cover should keep the southern and central sections in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Dewpoints will drop again behind the front, but winds should be lighter, less than 10 mph.
A shortwave trough in the southern stream will be moving east across the Deep South on Friday. Convective activity near the Gulf Coast should limit the northward advection of higher theta-e air. However, PoPs will be raised to the likely range on Friday as the trough moves overhead and upper divergence increases. A 30 kt SE 850 mb wind may produce some gusty winds in the mountains and foothills, but this appears to be short-lived so impacts should be minimal.
Precip should end Saturday morning once the trough axis shifts east of the Appalachians.
A high pressure ridge in an increasingly amplified midlevel flow will be over the region for Sunday and Monday, providing dry weather and a warming trend. With a southerly flow on Monday, highs should reach in the 60s to lower 70s again. The NBM wants to spread some low PoPs into the area ahead of a strengthening system in the Plains, but the GFS and ECMWF solutions suggest precip won't arrive until Monday night at the earliest.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Winds have decreased to 5 to 10 kts in the past few hours and expect that trend to continue overnight. Skies will be partly cloudy with mostly high level clouds but some 5K foot ceilings in and out at TRI with flurries possible a few more hours to the north of there. Clearing skies later from southwest to northeast.
No precipitation near the terminals tonight. Winds shift to the southwest Tuesday with gusts up to 25 knots during the afternoon.
VFR conditions expected entire forecast period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 39 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 36 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 32 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KTYS MC GHEE TYSON,TN | 20 sm | 13 min | N 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 16°F | 51% | 30.17 | |
KDKX KNOXVILLE DOWNTOWN ISLAND,TN | 21 sm | 11 min | calm | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 30°F | 21°F | 69% | 30.18 | |
KJAU COLONEL TOMMY C STINER AIRFIELD,TN | 23 sm | 16 min | var 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 16°F | 51% | 30.20 | |
KRKW ROCKWOOD MUNI,TN | 24 sm | 11 min | var 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 27°F | 16°F | 63% | 30.14 |
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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