Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Ridge, TN
April 29, 2024 11:56 AM EDT (15:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 12:28 AM Moonset 9:47 AM |
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 291343 AAB AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 943 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 933 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
No major changes for the morning update. Current forecast is tracking along nicely. Seems like another beautiful, but warm, late April day. Did freshen up winds and dewpoints a tad. Blended winds heavily towards the FV3 mainly because it seems like it's handling the calm winds in the northeast Tennessee valley very well. Not a significant change to the forecast really, but it does hold on to those lighter winds there longer into the day. Will update the zones, but that's about it for the update.
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Key Messages:
1. A warm and dry pattern continues today.
2. Showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive late tonight.
Discussion:
The Wind Advisory has ben canceled early as obs in the mountains and foothills are showing peak gusts only in the 20s.
High pressure east Carolina coastline will continue to dominate the region today, as it has for the past few days. Little change to the sensible weather is expected today from what we have been seeing, as a southerly flow will provide warm temperatures in the lower 80s for most spots. There may be a bit more high cloud cover due to upstrem convection, but it will be a mostly sunny day overall.
Ongoing convection from Lake Michigan to the Ozarks is occuring along a pre-frontal trough that will make its way east through the day and tonight. This activity is expected to reach our Plateau counties around 06Z tonight. It will be supported by good upper divergence ahead of a shortwave trough and jet streak, and a nocturnal LLJ around 40 kt, which should result in categorical showers and scattered thunderstorms. However, the overnight timing will mean very weak instability, with only a few hundred MUCAPE in the NAM soundings at CHA, and thus no severe threat is expected.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Key Messages:
1. Continued above normal temperatures through the week.
2. Active weather pattern to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Friday this week.
Discussion:
The period begins Tuesday morning with a cold front just to the northwest moving into the Ohio Valley. Showers and some thunderstorms will be moving into the western parts of the region in the morning ahead of the cold front. Only general thunder is expected. Currently, CAPE values are up to around 1000J/KG south and eastern mountains which is high enough for a few strong storms in the Tennessee Valley. Precipitation amounts should be moderate and possibly over 1 inch in the Smokies and southern plateau which could cause some minor flooding problems Tuesday. The front is forecast not to move through but lift northward Tuesday. High temperatures will be held down from Monday by the rain, only in the 70s which is close to average for late April.
Beginning Wednesday and continuing into Thursday there will be a break in the precipitation as surface high pressure builds in along with upper level ridging extending northward from the Gulf to the Tennessee Valley. Because of this high temperatures will again reach the lower to mid 80's Wednesday until the weekend. Possibly upper 80's Thursday. These temperatures are about 10 degrees above normal for the end of April.
On Friday and continuing through Sunday another cold front with a low pressure area in the Great Lakes and the frontal system hanging south just West of the Mississippi River is marching eastward.
Chances for precip exist much of the weekend as the system slows Saturday and stalls just south and east Sunday. A good chance of showers and storms will accompany it as it moves southeast. Some of these storms could be strong with CAPE values again around 700 J/KG The increased cloud cover will hold down temperatures this weekend just a few degrees to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
VFR conditions are expected at all sites today, with only scattered clouds around 5 kft. Tonight, a low pressure system will approach from the west, bringing increasing clouds followed by showers. Showers will mainly arrive at CHA and TYS near or after 09Z. Thunderstorms are possible but the chance appears too low to mention at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 64 79 58 / 0 80 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 63 75 58 / 0 60 90 20 Oak Ridge, TN 83 62 74 57 / 0 70 90 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 58 74 56 / 0 10 90 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 943 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 933 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
No major changes for the morning update. Current forecast is tracking along nicely. Seems like another beautiful, but warm, late April day. Did freshen up winds and dewpoints a tad. Blended winds heavily towards the FV3 mainly because it seems like it's handling the calm winds in the northeast Tennessee valley very well. Not a significant change to the forecast really, but it does hold on to those lighter winds there longer into the day. Will update the zones, but that's about it for the update.
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Key Messages:
1. A warm and dry pattern continues today.
2. Showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive late tonight.
Discussion:
The Wind Advisory has ben canceled early as obs in the mountains and foothills are showing peak gusts only in the 20s.
High pressure east Carolina coastline will continue to dominate the region today, as it has for the past few days. Little change to the sensible weather is expected today from what we have been seeing, as a southerly flow will provide warm temperatures in the lower 80s for most spots. There may be a bit more high cloud cover due to upstrem convection, but it will be a mostly sunny day overall.
Ongoing convection from Lake Michigan to the Ozarks is occuring along a pre-frontal trough that will make its way east through the day and tonight. This activity is expected to reach our Plateau counties around 06Z tonight. It will be supported by good upper divergence ahead of a shortwave trough and jet streak, and a nocturnal LLJ around 40 kt, which should result in categorical showers and scattered thunderstorms. However, the overnight timing will mean very weak instability, with only a few hundred MUCAPE in the NAM soundings at CHA, and thus no severe threat is expected.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Key Messages:
1. Continued above normal temperatures through the week.
2. Active weather pattern to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Friday this week.
Discussion:
The period begins Tuesday morning with a cold front just to the northwest moving into the Ohio Valley. Showers and some thunderstorms will be moving into the western parts of the region in the morning ahead of the cold front. Only general thunder is expected. Currently, CAPE values are up to around 1000J/KG south and eastern mountains which is high enough for a few strong storms in the Tennessee Valley. Precipitation amounts should be moderate and possibly over 1 inch in the Smokies and southern plateau which could cause some minor flooding problems Tuesday. The front is forecast not to move through but lift northward Tuesday. High temperatures will be held down from Monday by the rain, only in the 70s which is close to average for late April.
Beginning Wednesday and continuing into Thursday there will be a break in the precipitation as surface high pressure builds in along with upper level ridging extending northward from the Gulf to the Tennessee Valley. Because of this high temperatures will again reach the lower to mid 80's Wednesday until the weekend. Possibly upper 80's Thursday. These temperatures are about 10 degrees above normal for the end of April.
On Friday and continuing through Sunday another cold front with a low pressure area in the Great Lakes and the frontal system hanging south just West of the Mississippi River is marching eastward.
Chances for precip exist much of the weekend as the system slows Saturday and stalls just south and east Sunday. A good chance of showers and storms will accompany it as it moves southeast. Some of these storms could be strong with CAPE values again around 700 J/KG The increased cloud cover will hold down temperatures this weekend just a few degrees to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
VFR conditions are expected at all sites today, with only scattered clouds around 5 kft. Tonight, a low pressure system will approach from the west, bringing increasing clouds followed by showers. Showers will mainly arrive at CHA and TYS near or after 09Z. Thunderstorms are possible but the chance appears too low to mention at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 64 79 58 / 0 80 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 63 75 58 / 0 60 90 20 Oak Ridge, TN 83 62 74 57 / 0 70 90 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 58 74 56 / 0 10 90 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTYS MC GHEE TYSON,TN | 20 sm | 63 min | SSW 10 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 73°F | 55°F | 53% | 30.14 | |
| KDKX KNOXVILLE DOWNTOWN ISLAND,TN | 21 sm | 21 min | WNW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 55°F | 50% | 30.13 | |
| KRKW ROCKWOOD MUNI,TN | 24 sm | 21 min | S 09G17 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 57°F | 68% | 30.16 |
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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