Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 10:28 PM   Moonset 7:08 AM

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FXUS64 KMRX 261517 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1117 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Only minor tweaks to the immediate forecast to match up with current conditions and trends.

A few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch of rain has fallen from around Dayton, TN north to Scott County, TN with precip not recorded NE of Knox County just yet. Expect this trend to continue with just light showers/drizzle and no threat for lightning. This activity will move north and east over the area exiting out of Southwest VA tonight.

Wind gusts nearing 40 mph are currently occurring at the wind favored locations such as, Cove Mountain and Camp Creek. Not expecting gusts to exceed this as mesoanalysis only shows 25 KT at 850 over the mountains. Still continuing with the previous forecasts thoughts as far as electing not to go with a Wind Advisory anywhere.

KS

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Messages:

1. Mostly cloudy this morning with partial clearing in the afternoon; light rain possible in a few areas.

2. Breezy in the mountains tonight.

Discussion:

A surface warm front is located south of the area, across central AL and MS. Light precip on radar in Middle and West TN is associated with midlevel isentropic lift. The 00Z BNA sounding shows a very dry air mass below 700 mb, and most of the precip falling into this dry layer is not reaching the ground, with few surface obs showing rain east of the MS River. There is also a dissipating trend as it moves eastward. Models show a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of QPF this morning in the Plateau and southern/central Valley, but this seems overdone given the radar trends. A low to slight chance PoP will be forecast today across the area, from southern sections this morning to northern sections this afternoon as the isentropic lift spreads northeast. Broken to overcast cloud cover should also spread NE, with southern sections becoming scattered in the afternoon. This should allow for enough surface heating to bring temperatures into the upper 70s south, but persistent cloud cover will hold temps in northern sections in the 60s. A 20-30 kt S-SW 850 mb wind tonight may create some breezy conditions in the mountains, but likely not enough for a Wind Advisory at this time. Mid and high clouds will increase again overnight as the mid/upper level ridge axis moves east of the area.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Messages:

1. Breezy southwest winds Saturday. Could need an advisory higher elevations, Otherwise, dry and warm conditions is expected through the weekend.

2. A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Monday night and continues through next week. Warm days and mild nights throughout the rest of the forecast period

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a ridge continues over the Eastern U.S. states and strengthens through the weekend. While at the surface, a couple of deep lows move through the Great Plains and Midwest with closed upper lows. The cold fronts remain to the west of the Mississippi River and Tennessee Valley through Monday.

Saturday and Sunday stay dry as the cold front from the first system stalls and weakens near the Mississippi River. Ridging aloft and high pressure will stay strong over the Southeast. Breezy southerly winds will continue Saturday. Gusts could reach advisory criteria for part of the day Saturday in the higher elevations and foothills of the East Tennessee Mountains with a wind direction that could enhance downslope winds. Elsewhere, wind gusts will likely top out around 30 mph mainly the Southern Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau.

Monday and Tuesday, a surface low will move through the Great Lakes and into Canada. The front should get held up to the NW and may not be a clean frontal passage for our area. However a shortwave will help bring showers and storms to the region overnight Monday night and Tuesday. Severe potential still looks low at the moment but will continue to monitor this systems development. Wednesday and Thursday the ridge stays strong but more impulses moving through the southwest flow aloft should trigger more widely scattered to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms to form. Rainfall amounts Tuesday through Thursday right now don't look that impressive but stay tuned. The best chance for storms will be afternoon and evening hours Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Radar and obs show light precip falling from a midlevel cloud deck, but much of it is reaching the ground as it evaporates in a very dry low layer. It will have little to no impact on the terminals.
There will be broken to overcast clouds through the morning, mainly at or above 5 kft. These clouds should become scattered in the afternoon at TYS and CHA, but remain broken at TRI. Winds may become gusty at CHA this afternoon as a S-SE flow develops near a northward-moving warm front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 63 79 61 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 60 79 58 / 30 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 73 61 79 59 / 30 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 56 76 55 / 20 20 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

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