Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Ridge, TN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:49PM Thursday January 17, 2019 4:29 AM EST (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:33PMMoonset 3:55AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Ridge, TN
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location: 36.01, -84.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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Fxus64 kmrx 170849
afdmrx
area forecast discussion
national weather service morristown tn
349 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Short term (today and tonight)...

active short term forecast period with increasing chances of
rainfall today and tonight. The upper level pattern starts off
with cyclonic flow across new england with troughing across the
central plains. A ridge was analyzed across the intermountain
west. Across the southeast, the upper level flow was more zonal in
nature with slight ridging ahead of the trough. Closer to the
surface, an area of low pressure was centered across oklahoma. A
warm front was aligned NE of the low across central missouri with
a portion of that front stalled across kentucky.

The rest of tonight should remain quiet with lows in the low to
mid 30's. Some fog is possible through morning but should remain
patchy in nature. Isentropic ascent (as viewed on the 290-300k
levels) and warm air advection as noted on point soundings will
allow moisture to increase during the day with an increase in
clouds. As of this discussion, light rain was beginning to develop
across the midsouth in the aforementioned area of warm air
advection. Short term model guidance and cam's indicate rainfall
will begin to move into the area in the late morning to afternoon
hours. Given that temperatures in the morning are just above
freezing and thermal profiles are supportive of wintry mix, there
is the chance that the onset of precipitation could contain a
mixture of liquid rain, and ice pellets or snow. Confidence on
this is very low, and will not cause any issues as any mix would
not last very long at all. As of now, the best timing for rainfall
is between 15-18z for areas along and west of i-75 and i-81.

Areas east of i-75 would likely see rainfall after 18z. Intensity
should remain light as the system remains on the weaker side. Pops
drop off late tonight into Friday morning with only chances of
precipitation across NE tn, and SW va. Friday looks to be warmer
then previous days with highs in the low to mid 50's.

Long term (Friday through Thursday)...

a strong low pressure system will be tracking from the ozarks across
ky to the mid-atlantic region Friday night through Saturday night.

As we have been following the past few days, there will be several
concerns with this system. First, a southerly LLJ of 50-60 kts may
create some potential for high winds and or mountain waves on
Saturday. Second, east tn will be in the warm sector Saturday
afternoon, and although instability is weak, strong divergence aloft
between diffluent jets will enhance lift and give a chance of
thunderstorms, likely in the form of a squall line. With the strong
llj, there may be a damaging wind threat Saturday afternoon evening
as the line moves through. Third, there will be a chance of light
snow accumulations behind the cold frontal passage Saturday night.

Most of this will occur in the mountains and SW va, and even there,
only a few inches are expected at this time as deep moisture pulls
out quickly Sunday morning. Finally, temps will be falling through
the day Sunday with a brisk NW flow that could create low temps in
the teens in the valley and sub-zero wind chill values in the
mountains Sunday night.

Ridging over the area should provide a dry and mostly sunny day on
Monday with below normal temperatures. Another system is expected to
follow on Tuesday Wednesday, although there are some model
differences in the timing of the best precip chances with this
system. The GFS focuses on Tuesday night, while the ECMWF delays it
until Wednesday. Will maintain chance pops during both of these
periods.

Preliminary point temps pops
Chattanooga airport, tn 46 43 57 46 70 60 10 40
knoxville mcghee tyson airport, tn 44 41 54 43 70 60 10 10
oak ridge, tn 43 41 53 42 80 60 10 20
tri cities airport, tn 43 38 52 38 80 80 30 10

Mrx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Tn... None.

Va... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oak Ridge, TN2 mi37 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F35°F93%1025.8 hPa
Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN20 mi37 minNE 37.00 miOvercast32°F32°F100%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from OQT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4Calm3S33Calm3CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW444W63W4SW3W53W4--Calm3W4Calm3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmCalmE3N3CalmNW4CalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalm33CalmN3N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Morristown, TN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.