Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 4:09 PM   Moonset 3:15 AM

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FXUS64 KMRX 191307 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 907 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 905 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

No changes to the forecast this morning as everything appears to be on track for today. Will send new zones to get rid of morning wording.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Key Messages:

1. Most locations will be dry today, but a few showers and storms will be possible mainly across the E TN mountains and SW NC.

2. Dry and mild tonight.

Discussion:

We start the period with the upper trough axis just to our east and ridging to our west. We will see rising heights over the region as the upper ridge builds in and the trough continues to pull away.
Much of the area will be dry today, but a few showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms are expected to linger mainly over the E TN mountains and southwest NC. High temperatures today will generally be a bit above seasonal normals.

Tonight will be dry with low temperatures again just few degrees above seasonal normals.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Key Messages:

1. Drier and warmer Monday through Wednesday, only isolated thunderstorm potential.

2. Higher chances (60 to 70%) for rain and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

Discussion:

The start of the period on Monday begins with broad upper level ridging anchored over the area. Available CAPE around 1000 J each afternoon may support an isolated shower or thunderstorm, especially over the terrain. As the week progresses, the low level ridging moves off to our southeast, and better southwesterly flow brings a steady stream of warm, moist air into the region. Far to our northwest a broad upper level trough with embedded shortwaves pivoting around will be dominating the north-central US. With relative stationary movement amongst the larger synoptic scale features into midweek, Wednesday has continued to trend drier, though an afternoon shower or thunderstorm is still possible with the summer airmass in place. GFS soundings for Wednesday afternoon indicate a higher LCL base with a minor inversion just above that, those factors will serve to limit storm formation.

By Thursday, an attempt at a weak frontal boundary will be approaching the Ohio River valley, bringing higher chances for rain and thunderstorms. The parent low will be north of the Great Lakes by this time, making more significant convective weather difficult.
Temperatures on the back half of the week will cool slightly, though likely not from the approaching front, just from more prevalent showers and thunderstorms acting to dampen daytime solar heating. As we get to Friday, guidance has been persistent in showing a shortwave traversing across the center of the country, leading to additional widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon, depending on exact track. As that shortwave then exits, ridging will return bringing lower storm chances tied back to a diurnal rhythm.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The main concern will be the possibility of fog development late in the period, with the highest chance at TRI. Will include a few hours of MVFR vsby late at TRI for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 63 86 64 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 60 83 63 / 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 61 85 62 / 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 56 82 58 / 10 10 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

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