Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Broken Arrow, OK
March 19, 2024 8:54 AM CDT (13:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:25 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 1:27 PM Moonset 3:49 AM |
Area Discussion for - Tulsa, OK
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FXUS64 KTSA 191111 AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 611 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Cold start again this morning with temperatures across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas below freezing. Big warm up however expected today with gusty southwest winds increasing at 15 to 25 mph. With the warm conditions, at least limited fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon with minimum RH values falling to around 25 percent, mainly along and west of Highway 75.
LONG TERM
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible by late Tuesday afternoon across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as upper low approaches from the west, coupled with a frontal boundary moving into far northeast Oklahoma during this time. Precipitation chances will continue to increase Wednesday night into Thursday as main upper low shift east through central/southern Texas.
GFS has trended a little slower with cold front on Friday although model remains the most aggressive with frontal progression compared to the slower/weaker EC solution. Still expect relatively mild conditions on Friday ahead of the front with high temperatures in the upper 60s. Cold front moves through Friday night, potentially stalling across southeast Oklahoma on Saturday. High temperatures across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will likely be several degrees cooler on Saturday behind front.
Scattered showers will be possible into Sunday as stronger WAA/ isentropic lift develops ahead of broad upper trough moving through the desert southwest. Main upper wave progged to eject into the southern Plains during the Sunday night/Monday time frame with widespread showers/scattered thunderstorms, including the potential for heavy rainfall. Could also see at least some severe threat around this time, however this will likely depend on eventual timing/evolution of storm system, which obviously remains somewhat uncertain this far into the extended periods.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Will carry WS remark at the NE OK sites through 15z, otherwise VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the valid period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 46 75 50 / 0 0 30 60 FSM 68 44 75 50 / 0 0 10 40 MLC 69 46 73 52 / 0 0 10 60 BVO 76 41 73 44 / 0 0 30 50 FYV 67 43 74 47 / 0 0 20 40 BYV 65 45 72 46 / 0 0 20 30 MKO 69 45 73 51 / 0 0 20 60 MIO 71 43 71 46 / 0 0 20 40 F10 71 46 73 51 / 0 0 20 60 HHW 65 42 68 50 / 0 0 0 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 611 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Cold start again this morning with temperatures across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas below freezing. Big warm up however expected today with gusty southwest winds increasing at 15 to 25 mph. With the warm conditions, at least limited fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon with minimum RH values falling to around 25 percent, mainly along and west of Highway 75.
LONG TERM
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible by late Tuesday afternoon across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as upper low approaches from the west, coupled with a frontal boundary moving into far northeast Oklahoma during this time. Precipitation chances will continue to increase Wednesday night into Thursday as main upper low shift east through central/southern Texas.
GFS has trended a little slower with cold front on Friday although model remains the most aggressive with frontal progression compared to the slower/weaker EC solution. Still expect relatively mild conditions on Friday ahead of the front with high temperatures in the upper 60s. Cold front moves through Friday night, potentially stalling across southeast Oklahoma on Saturday. High temperatures across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will likely be several degrees cooler on Saturday behind front.
Scattered showers will be possible into Sunday as stronger WAA/ isentropic lift develops ahead of broad upper trough moving through the desert southwest. Main upper wave progged to eject into the southern Plains during the Sunday night/Monday time frame with widespread showers/scattered thunderstorms, including the potential for heavy rainfall. Could also see at least some severe threat around this time, however this will likely depend on eventual timing/evolution of storm system, which obviously remains somewhat uncertain this far into the extended periods.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Will carry WS remark at the NE OK sites through 15z, otherwise VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the valid period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 46 75 50 / 0 0 30 60 FSM 68 44 75 50 / 0 0 10 40 MLC 69 46 73 52 / 0 0 10 60 BVO 76 41 73 44 / 0 0 30 50 FYV 67 43 74 47 / 0 0 20 40 BYV 65 45 72 46 / 0 0 20 30 MKO 69 45 73 51 / 0 0 20 60 MIO 71 43 71 46 / 0 0 20 40 F10 71 46 73 51 / 0 0 20 60 HHW 65 42 68 50 / 0 0 0 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KRVS RICHARD LLOYD JONES JR,OK | 5 sm | 61 min | SSW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 21°F | 55% | 30.19 | |
KTUL TULSA INTL,OK | 11 sm | 61 min | S 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 19°F | 48% | 30.17 | |
KOWP WILLIAM R POGUE MUNI,OK | 17 sm | 19 min | SSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 21°F | 42% | 30.19 |
Tulsa, OK,
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