Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM   Moonset 2:19 PM

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FXUS64 KTSA 030509 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1209 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Scattered showers and storms have developed this evening across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that currently stretches from near Miami to near Oilton.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to persist through much of the night as the front pushes to the south and a mid-level shortwave moves across southeast Oklahoma. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe with large hail the main concern. Have updated pops slightly for the remainder of tonight. Otherwise, current forecast for tonight is on track.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The unsettled pattern will remain through the rest of the period, with near daily shower and storm chances into the next week. some severe potential will exists across the region, but particulars will depend on the evolution of previous day's convection so the details will be ironed out with future forecasts.

Friday looks to be the most tame day of the forecast period, with most locations staying dry as a dryer airmass filters in behind the cold front this evening. Lingering showers and storms will remain possible across southeast Oklahoma and into the terrain of western Arkansas where the front will stall through the day Friday. Moisture will begin to return Friday evening as the weak boundary moves back northward. Another complex of showers and storms forming across western Kansas Friday evening could make its way into northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning in a decaying state, but periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially across northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning. Another disturbance is progged to advance northeastward across the Southern Plains Saturday night into Sunday, bringing widespread rain chances to the area through much of the day Sunday. Showers and storms should increase Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma and move eastward into western Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Again, severe potential will be low given the background environment but anytime there are storms in May there is potential for some embedded strong to severe storms.

As we head into next week, strong zonal flow aloft develops as a lead shortwave trough ejects out of the Rockies and into the Central and Northern Plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary will then drop southeastward and likely set up camp somewhere across the Southern or Central Plains while a dryline extends southward across western to central Oklahoma and into Texas.
Periodic ripples in the flow aloft are forecast to advance across the Plains states throughout the rest of the week. This, combined with the strong flow aloft and continued low level moisture advection into the region will create a scenario with at least daily isolated to scattered storm development within the warm sector. The large instability and persistent strong deep layer shear would support severe weather with any storms that develop.
Mid level capping will limit the coverage of storms through the first part of the week, likely confined to areas of increased synoptic forcing where any speed max can increase convergence along the dryline. More widespread, organized severe potential will be probable during this time, but those details will come in the coming days with better agreement on timing and location of the various vort maxes that track through the region.
Nevertheless, be prepared for another round of springtime storms across the Plains next week.

Bowlan

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Ongoing showers and storms along and south of Interstate 44 will continue to slowly spread south and eastward through the early morning hours. Outside of near term thunderstorm impacts, MVFR to periodic IFR ceilings are expected to expand in coverage and persist through mid to late morning. Eventually ceilings erode and/or rise into low VFR levels during the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 78 61 74 / 10 70 60 90 FSM 64 81 65 77 / 10 70 50 90 MLC 65 80 63 76 / 20 70 70 90 BVO 59 76 57 73 / 10 70 50 80 FYV 61 80 60 75 / 10 70 40 90 BYV 60 79 60 73 / 10 70 40 80 MKO 62 77 62 74 / 10 70 60 90 MIO 61 76 59 72 / 10 70 40 90 F10 63 78 62 74 / 20 70 70 90 HHW 64 79 64 75 / 20 60 50 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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