Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:33 AM

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FXUS64 KTSA 280531 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The forecast generally remains on track. Thus far, severe storms have been confined to the far northwest part of our forecast area, but that is about to change. Storms continue to increase in coverage and intensity to our west, and these storms will move into eastern Oklahoma within the next hour or so, with an all hazard severe risk. A large QLCS will eventually evolve and sweep across the entire forecast area overnight with damaging winds, a few tornadoes, sporadic hail, and widespread heavy rainfall. Both flash and river flood flooding will become a major concern heading into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Have made only minor changes to pops tonight, with the rest of the forecast on track at this time.

LONG TERM
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorms producing heavy rain and at least a low chance for severe weather will be ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas, with an expected decrease in coverage and intensity toward mid morning. Another round of thunderstorms with severe weather potential is expected to develop along the cold front/dryline Sunday afternoon and into the evening, with a lesser but still existent potential for tornadoes and very large hail. The Flood Watch may need to be extended in time to account for this activity across eastern parts of the watch area.

A short break in the active pattern is expected Monday and into Tuesday, with a period of dry weather for much of those two days.
The dry weather will be short-lived with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including some potential for severe thunderstorms, mid to late week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Line of storms will sweep across the TAF sites over the next 6 to 9 hours, with deteriorating conditions expected along with strong wind gusts. MVFR cigs will persist in the wake of the system thru the morning with some spotty showers. Another round of storms may develop during the afternoon and slide across the TAF sites, especially NW AR where tempo groups will be used.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 55 80 58 / 80 10 10 0 FSM 77 61 82 60 / 100 50 10 10 MLC 76 60 82 63 / 90 10 10 10 BVO 77 51 78 55 / 70 10 0 10 FYV 74 57 80 59 / 90 50 10 10 BYV 73 57 78 56 / 100 60 10 10 MKO 74 58 79 59 / 90 10 10 0 MIO 73 54 76 56 / 90 30 10 10 F10 76 58 79 61 / 80 10 10 10 HHW 73 61 80 62 / 90 30 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019- 020-029.

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