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FXUS64 KTSA 161137 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 637 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Strong thunderstorms continue this morning across portions of northeast Oklahoma, with scattered storms bubbling to the southwest in parts of central and southwest Oklahoma as well.
The strongest storms are developing ahead of an MCV near the Oklahoma/Kansas border very near I-35 moving to the east- northeast. The overall potential for severe weather through the rest of the early morning hours today continues to wane, although at least a low chance for marginally severe hail and wind across northeast and east central Oklahoma will exist through sunrise given available shear and instability.

Attention then turns to the development ongoing in the South Plains region of Texas, extending into southwest Oklahoma. The expectation is for this to continue to shift eastward through the day, moving into portions of southeast and east central Oklahoma in a decreasing phase after sunrise. A front expected to be near I-44 mid to late morning should also become a focus for additional development into the afternoon as well.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this evening, continuing through the rest of the night and into Friday, as the main upper level system finally approaches and moves through the region. A marginal severe weather threat will exist with storms this evening and again on Friday, with the greatest potential likely to be in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas given the location of the colocated instability/shear max. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a concern, as well, considering antecedent conditions and well above normal precipitable water values.

Upper level ridging behind the departing upper level system will signal an end to the current active period, with dry weather for most of the weekend and temp2eratures running about 10 degrees above normal. MCS activity Sunday night and again Monday night could again affect areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders on the northern periphery of the upper ridge.

Deterministic models are in much better agreement on their handling of the Tuesday front, bringing it through the area. This should lead to higher shower and thunderstorm chances and lower temperatures from Tuesday through at least mid week. High temperatures have been trended strongly toward the cooler traditional MOS guidance blend beginning Tuesday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Another low-confidence aviation forecast through the next 24 hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will taper off late in the morning and through the afternoon, with a few showers lingering. As a result, VFR should prevail at all TAF sites as the precipitation becomes more isolated late this morning and into the afternoon. Winds will stay light and variable through much of the period. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected late/overnight tonight and into Friday morning. Coverage and duration is still questionable at this time.
Regardless of precipitation/convection coverage, ceilings and visibilities may lower to MVFR/IFR late tonight into Friday morning.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 62 78 60 / 60 50 40 10 FSM 82 65 78 63 / 40 60 60 20 MLC 80 62 78 60 / 40 60 50 20 BVO 77 58 77 57 / 60 40 30 10 FYV 79 60 76 58 / 50 60 60 20 BYV 78 61 75 59 / 50 60 70 20 MKO 79 62 76 60 / 40 50 50 20 MIO 76 60 76 59 / 60 40 50 10 F10 78 62 76 59 / 50 50 50 10 HHW 80 63 78 62 / 50 60 40 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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