Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 3:49 PM   Moonset 3:54 AM

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ANZ658 Coastal Waters From Nc Va Border To Currituck Beach Light Nc Out 20 Nm- 119 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Rest of tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. A slight chance of tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat - S winds 5 kt, becoming W late in the morning, then becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 9 seconds. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 9 seconds and ne 3 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of rain. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 8 seconds and ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. Rain likely. Mon - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning. Mon night - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Tue - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - E winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 119 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure moves offshore as another cold front drops across the waters early this morning. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday, as low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the carolinas.

FXUS61 KAKQ 200641 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 241 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move across the region this morning. Low pressure will track from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sunday into Monday morning. High pressure will build over the area for late Monday into Tuesday afternoon.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 935 PM EDT Friday...

Quasi-stationary front and weak low pressure is situated just SW of the FA at this hour. A cold front is located to our W along the spine of the Appalachians. Aloft, there is a broad trough over the NE Plains into to the Great Lakes. Temps remain on the raw/chilly side (and on the lower end of most guidance)
as a maritime airmass continues to spill onshore (especially along the coast). This is leading to temps in the 50s for most of the area, except in the far SW where there some low-mid 60s persist. Noting some isolated to scattered showers in NE NC and SE VA. W/ some very weak elevated instability (MUCAPE 200 J/kg or less), cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two here over the next hr or so.

The cold front will inch closer to the later tonight, crossing the area early Saturday morning. Still expecting widely scattered showers to accompany the FROPA with generally chance PoPs spreading from W to E. While instability remains in short supply, mesoanalysis and short-term models advertise a modest increase in MUCAPE as the front inches closer. Thus, will continue carrying a slight chc thunder, mainly S and SE of Richmond. This coincides w/ some CAMs showing some heavier showers and some low values of lightning density. Not expecting temps to drop off much tonight given thick cloud cover. Lows will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

The front likely moves ESE of the FA by the middle of Sat morning, and isolated to perhaps sctd showers will likely linger along the immediate coast to start the day. We should see at least partial clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn, as drier air filters in behind the front. Forecast highs are in the low 70s in the piedmont and upper 60s E of I-95.

A stronger shot of CAA arrives Sat night into Sun morning. Low temps will drop into the 40s NW to around 50 in the far SE. Sun through Sun night, a southern stream low pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states and off the SE coast. This means that rain chances will return, likely by Sun aftn across the southern half of the forecast area. Temps will likely be cooler across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area (due to clouds and increasing rain chances), with highs only in the upper 50s to around 60. The northwestern 2/3rds of the forecast area will see highs in the low 60s. Rain chances will continue over the srn/SE counties Sun evening into early Mon morning. Lows will generally be in the low 40s inland and mid 40s along the immediate coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Any lingering rain will end over extrm SE counties early Mon morning, as the low tracks farther out to sea. Under a partly to mostly sunny sky, high temps Mon will range through the 60s (warmest central and wrn counties). High pressure briefly builds over the area, then slides offshore during Tue, before another cold front brings shower chances to the region Wed into Wed evening.
Although it will be very cool Tue morning (upper 30s to upper 40s), temps should rebound nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
The cold front will push out to sea Wed night, with high pressure building into/over the area for Thu. Highs range through the 70s (warmest S) Wed. Lows Wed night range through the 40s (coolest NW).
Highs on Thu mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Expect mainly LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs at the TAF sites through this morning into this aftn, as a cold front with sctd showers and maybe a tstm will move through the region then off the coast.
CIGs/conditions will improve to VFR from NW to SE this aftn into this evening, as winds become northerly and start to usher drier air into the area. VFR conditions expected tonight through Sun morning.

Outlook: Rain chances return by Sun aftn and continue through Sun night, as low pressure tracks from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sun into Mon.

MARINE
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

NE winds have become more easterly this afternoon as high pressure has been building south. Winds are generally 5 to 15 kt across the entire area. Seas are still running 5 ft over the northern coastal waters and 4 ft from Cape Charles south. The Bay was around 1 foot with some 2 ft. With 5 ft seas persisting over the northern waters and another surge expected late tonight into early Sat, have extended the SCA into Sat morning. SCA elsewhere have been allowed to expire.

Another cold front drops across the region late tonight (Fri night) into Saturday morning. High res models have slowed the timing of the surge more into Saturday morning. Winds swing around to the NW then NNW post frontal Sat morning, but should be mainly sub- SCA given weak cool-air advection though a brief period of gusts to 20 kt is likely on the Bay and ocean. Winds should decrease some Sat afternoon ~10 to 15 kt.

Winds become NW to N again Saturday night as yet another front pushes south and again increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, but look to remain below sub- SCA at this time. This surge is also relatively short lived and winds should decrease some later on Sunday.

A area of low pressure moves off the Carolinas late Sunday and into early next week supporting a persistent NE flow and building seas. Would not be surprised to eventually (briefly)
need SCA over southern coastal waters from Cape Charles south by the time we get into the day on Monday, but will keep just below for now.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 800 PM EST Friday...

Tidal anomalies remain elevated across the upper portions of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac this evening. Multiple strong flood tides at the mouth of the Bay followed by weaker ebb tides have contributed to the higher water levels across the upper Bay.
The most recent flood tide was not as strong compared to the last few tides, so expect water levels to gradually begin to diminish later tonight into Saturday morning. Based on the latest trends, have opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for locations along the tidal Potomac/Northern Neck and for Bay facing portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore due to the potential for minor tidal flooding with the upcoming high tide.
Additional minor tidal flooding will be possible with the Saturday AM high tide, especially for sensitive locations such as Bishops Head, MD.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650- 652.

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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:06 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:12 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:34 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet

Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet

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