Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eureka Springs, AR
March 18, 2024 10:22 PM CDT (03:22 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:20 AM Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 12:15 PM Moonset 2:57 AM |
Area Discussion for - Tulsa, OK
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FXUS64 KTSA 190030 AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 730 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 729 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The main update was to tweak low temps down, leaning toward the colder CONSMOS and NBM 50th %ile numbers. Bottom line, another night of sub-freezing temps is expected at some point tonight, but the time below freezing may be shorter than usual as mentioned in the discussion earlier. The surface ridge center/axis will be sliding across the area over the next 6 hours and will be south of the forecast area in TX/LA by 12Z. As such, south winds will already be underway toward daybreak and temps will likely level out or slowly rise from the overnight lows at that time. Also inserted areas of frost where it's most likely.
Lacy
SHORT TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Another round of below freezing temperatures is in offing for tonight across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with temperatures bottoming out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Minimum temperatures may be reached earlier than normal tonight as south-southwesterly winds increase overnight across much of the area as the surface high centered over the area northeast Oklahoma this afternoon shifts to the south.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Considerably warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday as west-southwesterly winds prevail. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s Tuesday afternoon. With afternoon relative humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range across much of the area, there will be a limited fire weather danger on Tuesday with enhanced grassland fire spread rates.
The chances of showers will increase late Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday as the upper level low currently spinning over southwest Arizona is dislodged and ejects out across the Southern Plains. There is expected to be adequate instability for a few thunderstorms as well.
Still uncertainty in the models as we move into the late week into the weekend period. The GFS continues to be much cooler than the ECMWF during this time-frame.
The forecast which is based on the NBM will stay closer to the warmer ECMWF.
The potential for showers and a few storms will return as we move over the weekend and into early next week as the next storm system moves approaches.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all sites. Winds become lighter after sundown this evening with light winds gradually shifting to SSW through the early morning hours.
SW winds increase by late tomorrow morning and afternoon...gusting to 20-25 kts. A period of LLWS may develop between 12z-16z for BVO, gusting to 35 kts.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 33 76 46 73 / 0 0 0 30 FSM 30 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 20 MLC 30 70 47 70 / 0 0 0 20 BVO 28 77 41 72 / 0 0 0 20 FYV 25 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 27 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 30 70 45 70 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 28 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 20 F10 31 71 46 70 / 0 0 0 20 HHW 30 65 43 68 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 730 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 729 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The main update was to tweak low temps down, leaning toward the colder CONSMOS and NBM 50th %ile numbers. Bottom line, another night of sub-freezing temps is expected at some point tonight, but the time below freezing may be shorter than usual as mentioned in the discussion earlier. The surface ridge center/axis will be sliding across the area over the next 6 hours and will be south of the forecast area in TX/LA by 12Z. As such, south winds will already be underway toward daybreak and temps will likely level out or slowly rise from the overnight lows at that time. Also inserted areas of frost where it's most likely.
Lacy
SHORT TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Another round of below freezing temperatures is in offing for tonight across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with temperatures bottoming out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Minimum temperatures may be reached earlier than normal tonight as south-southwesterly winds increase overnight across much of the area as the surface high centered over the area northeast Oklahoma this afternoon shifts to the south.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Considerably warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday as west-southwesterly winds prevail. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s Tuesday afternoon. With afternoon relative humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range across much of the area, there will be a limited fire weather danger on Tuesday with enhanced grassland fire spread rates.
The chances of showers will increase late Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday as the upper level low currently spinning over southwest Arizona is dislodged and ejects out across the Southern Plains. There is expected to be adequate instability for a few thunderstorms as well.
Still uncertainty in the models as we move into the late week into the weekend period. The GFS continues to be much cooler than the ECMWF during this time-frame.
The forecast which is based on the NBM will stay closer to the warmer ECMWF.
The potential for showers and a few storms will return as we move over the weekend and into early next week as the next storm system moves approaches.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all sites. Winds become lighter after sundown this evening with light winds gradually shifting to SSW through the early morning hours.
SW winds increase by late tomorrow morning and afternoon...gusting to 20-25 kts. A period of LLWS may develop between 12z-16z for BVO, gusting to 35 kts.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 33 76 46 73 / 0 0 0 30 FSM 30 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 20 MLC 30 70 47 70 / 0 0 0 20 BVO 28 77 41 72 / 0 0 0 20 FYV 25 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 27 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 30 70 45 70 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 28 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 20 F10 31 71 46 70 / 0 0 0 20 HHW 30 65 43 68 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KROG ROGERS EXECUTIVE CARTER FIELD,AR | 20 sm | 24 min | S 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 34°F | 18°F | 51% | 30.29 |
Springfield, MO,
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