Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 3:16 AM   Moonset 3:22 PM

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FXUS64 KTSA 050110 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 810 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The earlier thunderstorms that produced a few reports of hail up to dime size in northwest AR this evening have moved out of the forecast area, leaving us with a temporary lull. Regional radar trends show showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across southwest and south central OK, and with the approach of an upper level system later tonight this will expand further into parts of eastern OK, primarily after Midnight, and become rather widespread by morning. Sent an update earlier to remove POPs through 03z, with the rest of the forecast unchanged.

LONG TERM
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area Sunday morning, shifting to the north and east with time along with the movement of the upper level support. Some redevelopment potential may exist during the late afternoon hours, depending on how much instability can develop behind the earlier batch of storms. Flash flooding will be the main concern, however, given the widespread rains that could be locally heavy and the antecedent conditions.

Attention then turns to the potential for significant severe weather late Monday and into Monday night. Some data are indicating potential for showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas early in the day in response to increasing mid level moisture. However, do not think it will be substantial enough to warrant the high POPs offered by the NBM during the day and as a result, have cut back on those.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as late afternoon but more likely early to mid evening along and ahead of an approaching cold front/dryline. Areas north of I-40 continue to look most likely to see thunderstorms given the main upper system is located well north of the area. Even in areas further south, however, the environment supports a high end severe threat with any storm that develops. This threat looks to continue into the overnight, waning toward Tuesday morning.

Additional mainly afternoon and evening storms remain expected through mid week until the main upper level system finally shifts east. These storms will also pose a severe weather threat, although specifics may depend on how things evolve earlier in the week. Expect cool and dry weather to move in late in the week and into the weekend, likely a very welcome break for all.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Initially VFR conditions will quickly lower to IFR late tonight and early Sunday morning as widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms overspread the area. Conditions may begin to improve by late Sunday afternoon, especially at KMLC where ceilings may lift to MVFR after the rain ends.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 59 70 61 82 / 70 90 20 30 FSM 65 73 63 83 / 60 100 30 30 MLC 63 72 64 82 / 80 100 20 30 BVO 54 68 58 81 / 60 90 20 30 FYV 60 72 62 82 / 50 90 40 30 BYV 60 70 60 80 / 30 90 50 30 MKO 61 70 61 80 / 70 100 20 30 MIO 56 68 60 80 / 50 80 30 30 F10 60 70 61 80 / 80 90 20 30 HHW 65 73 64 79 / 80 90 20 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019- 020-029.

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