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FXUS64 KTSA 030148 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 848 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Scattered showers and storms have developed this evening across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that currently stretches from near Miami to near Oilton.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to persist through much of the night as the front pushes to the south and a mid-level shortwave moves across southeast Oklahoma. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe with large hail the main concern. Have updated pops slightly for the remainder of tonight. Otherwise, current forecast for tonight is on track.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The unsettled pattern will remain through the rest of the period, with near daily shower and storm chances into the next week. some severe potential will exists across the region, but particulars will depend on the evolution of previous day's convection so the details will be ironed out with future forecasts.

Friday looks to be the most tame day of the forecast period, with most locations staying dry as a dryer airmass filters in behind the cold front this evening. Lingering showers and storms will remain possible across southeast Oklahoma and into the terrain of western Arkansas where the front will stall through the day Friday. Moisture will begin to return Friday evening as the weak boundary moves back northward. Another complex of showers and storms forming across western Kansas Friday evening could make its way into northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning in a decaying state, but periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially across northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning. Another disturbance is progged to advance northeastward across the Southern Plains Saturday night into Sunday, bringing widespread rain chances to the area through much of the day Sunday. Showers and storms should increase Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma and move eastward into western Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Again, severe potential will be low given the background environment but anytime there are storms in May there is potential for some embedded strong to severe storms.

As we head into next week, strong zonal flow aloft develops as a lead shortwave trough ejects out of the Rockies and into the Central and Northern Plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary will then drop southeastward and likely set up camp somewhere across the Southern or Central Plains while a dryline extends southward across western to central Oklahoma and into Texas.
Periodic ripples in the flow aloft are forecast to advance across the Plains states throughout the rest of the week. This, combined with the strong flow aloft and continued low level moisture advection into the region will create a scenario with at least daily isolated to scattered storm development within the warm sector. The large instability and persistent strong deep layer shear would support severe weather with any storms that develop.
Mid level capping will limit the coverage of storms through the first part of the week, likely confined to areas of increased synoptic forcing where any speed max can increase convergence along the dryline. More widespread, organized severe potential will be probable during this time, but those details will come in the coming days with better agreement on timing and location of the various vort maxes that track through the region.
Nevertheless, be prepared for another round of springtime storms across the Plains next week.

Bowlan

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma early this evening, currently located near a Pawnee/Welch line. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening ahead of boundary with a modestly unstable air-mass in place. PWATs around 1.4 inches will produce brief heavy rain, likely reducing visibilities below 1 mile in the stronger storms. Front stalls late tonight into Friday morning with lower IFR ceilings developing at most locations, including the potential for patchy dense fog in NW AR. Ceiling heights will slowly rise through day Friday with VFR conditions forecast by mid afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 61 80 62 78 / 60 10 30 70 FSM 64 82 64 81 / 50 30 20 70 MLC 62 82 65 80 / 60 20 20 70 BVO 56 79 59 76 / 30 0 30 70 FYV 60 80 61 80 / 50 30 20 70 BYV 60 78 60 79 / 50 20 20 70 MKO 62 80 62 77 / 60 10 20 70 MIO 60 79 61 76 / 60 10 20 70 F10 61 79 63 78 / 50 10 20 70 HHW 63 81 64 79 / 40 30 20 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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