Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 11:08 PM   Moonset 7:26 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 270108 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 906 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the weekend. Flow will turn swly early next week as the the western ridge of the sfc high extends inland.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 900 PM Friday...

High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will continue to extend south into the region. Shallow isentropic lift and warm air advection focused along the upslope regime along the eastern slopes of the higher terrain continues to support light rain and drizzle primarily over the NC mountains and foothills. Some non-measurable precip could sneak into the western Piedmont overnight. Otherwise, dry with variably cloudy skies ranging from cloudy in the west to part cloudy/fair skies in the east. Not as cool with overnight lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s, except mid/upper 40s across the NE where clouds are less extensive.


SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 105 PM Friday...

As the upper level ridge persists across the Mid-Atlantic region, dry weather is expected to continue over the short term period. At the surface, high pressure off the north Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday morning will continue to influence easterly winds on Saturday. By late Saturday night early Sunday the high will slide south and winds over the region will be come southerly. Temperatures Saturday will be a few degrees below average with highs ranging from the upper 60s along the north to mid 70s along the south. With cloud coverage continuing through the night, lows will be above average ranging from mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM Friday...

Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US on Sunday and Monday. At the surface, western Atlantic high pressure will weaken and shift south from off the NC coast on Sunday to off the GA/SC coast by Monday, shifting the surface flow across our region to a S/SW direction. This will bring mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures, with highs increasing from upper-70s to lower-80s on Sunday to mid-to-upper-80s on Monday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to around 60. While these temperatures won't break any records, they are still around 5-10 degrees above normal.

Clouds will increase on Tuesday as the ridge gets replaced by a shortwave trough approaching from the west that reaches central NC by Tuesday evening/night and interacts with a lee surface trough in place. However, the synoptic cold front doesn't look to make it to central NC. Also the shortwave looks fairly weak and the time of day of its passage looks too late for the most favorable daytime heating for convection. Still, instability will be high enough that a few storms are possible, especially over the western Piedmont.

Can't rule out a bit more diurnal convection on Wednesday and Thursday, but with a lack of forcing and another mid/upper ridge moving overhead, coverage should be very isolated at best. The next northern stream trough looks to dive down into the Upper Midwest on Friday, as a cold front approaches. This will bring potential for better coverage of showers and storms. High temperatures will continue to be very warm, in the mid-to-upper-80s, through the workweek. Isolated spots in the south could even reach 90. Lows will be in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 700 PM Friday...

With the exception for a period of MVFR ceilings at KINT and KGSO between 12 to 15z, expect predominately VFR conditions with broken to occasionally overcast ceilings between 5-10kft through the forecast period. Easterly winds of 5-10 kts will continue overnight, gradually turning toward the SELY Saturday. -CBL

Outlook: Additional sub-VFR ceilings are possible early Sunday morning, with the best chance again at KINT and KGSO. Diurnal showers and scattered storms may be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
-Luchetti

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Petersburg
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Fri -- 12:44 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:56 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:52 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:41 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Chester
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Fri -- 12:45 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:53 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chester, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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