Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:25PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 4:15 AM EDT (08:15 UTC) Moonrise 4:57PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
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location: 36.52, -78.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 190620
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
220 am edt Tue mar 19 2019

Synopsis
Continental polar high pressure will extend across the middle
atlantic states through Wednesday. Coastal low pressure will
strengthen while tracking along the coast of the carolinas
and virginia Wednesday night through Thursday.

Near term through tonight
As of 950 pm Monday...

previous forecast remains on track. Seeing most of the shortwave
energy exiting east off of the nc coastline, leaving downsloping caa
conditions in its wake. Other than some sct upper-level clouds
passing quickly SW to NE overnight, expect mostly clear skies and
primarily northerly flow during the overnight hours. Temperatures
will once again dip to near slightly below freezing across the nw
zones to mid 30s across the se. A few models continue to indicate a
sct bkn stratus deck formation across the NE piedmont coastal plain
thanks to some lingering moisture and northeasterly flow associated
with the departing surface wave. Thinking this may be a tad
overdone, but could see some minor low ceiling impact across the
roanoke river basin through about sunrise.

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 333 pm Monday...

an area of high pressure over the lower great lakes tonight will
build drift eastward and reside over the carolinas Tuesday. This
weather system will maintain dry and seasonably cool conditions.

Afternoon temperatures will average 7-8 degrees cooler than normal,
ranging from the low-mid 50s north to the upper 50s far south-
southeast. Aside from patchy cirrus, skies should be sunny-
mostly sunny.

While the parent high will drift eastward and offshore Tuesday
night, a sfc ridge will extended westward back into central nc. This
feature will maintain a dry atmosphere. An area of low pressure
aloft lifting newd from the fl peninsula may advect enough moisture
nwd into coastal nc to produce some patchy cloudiness over our
coastal plain and sandhills by early Wednesday. It will remain on
the chilly side with overnight temperatures generally in the 30-35
degree range, coldest across the north-northwest. If the clouds
appear sooner or thicker than currently anticipated, min
temperatures may end 3-4 degrees warmer.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 305 pm Monday...

wed through Thu night: confidence in the details of this forecast
period is lower than it should be for a day 2 3 forecast, with the
uncertainty a function of subtle differences in the linking of lower
and upper level features. The mid-week omega pattern will consist of
broad troughing over E noam, a blocking ridge over alberta mt, and a
deep cyclone near the ca coast. This flow will result in shortwaves
diving from the upper midwest to the sse and ultimately through the
carolinas through the rest of this week, with the first of the two
most potent waves crossing the region Wed night Thu morning. The
surface high moving off the northeast coast Wed will extend SW into
nc, and this cool air mass over the warm gulf stream waters along
with weak leading dpva will already be prompting falling surface
pressures just off the carolina coast. But the arrival of the
stronger shortwave trough should foster additional deepening, and
the resultant enhanced NE low level flow and rising pw will
necessitate boosting precip chances, focused in the eastern forecast
area. The NAM in the last 2 runs has really ramped up the low level
mass convergence Wed night Thu morning with a strong surface low
near myr, and while this results in the NAM being a very wet outlier
(1-3" storm total rain over SE nc), the ECMWF (which also has a deep
low but is further n) has trended toward throwing light rain further
w into central nc. Will include slightly higher pops with this
forecast, but due to the continued disparity of model solutions,
will keep pops no greater than chance E and slight chance further w
into the piedmont, focused on late Wed through Thu morning within
the window of greatest forcing for ascent from both mid level dpva
and upper divergence. Expect below normal temps Wed improving to
slightly below normal Thu with improving conditions late Thu and thu
night.

Fri through mon: the second strong northern stream wave will swing
se on fri, with a dry but deeply mixed column. Expect some high base
clouds fri, mainly ne, and gusty winds as high as 25-30 kts within
the tight mslp gradient between the northeast surface low and high
pressure building in from the W great lakes. The cold mid level
cyclone over the northeast Fri night will wobble ene through sat, as
the longwave ridge from the NW gulf up through the plains gets
beaten down by the ca low. Despite the eventual weakening of this
latter cyclone, energy from this will cross the S plains and lower
miss valley as we head into Sun mon. The surface high will translate
se across nc early Sun before moving off the southeast coast,
inducing low level warm moist air advection and leading to
increasing clouds and shower chances (but still small, due to the
limited lift and weak mid level winds). Rising heights aloft and low
level thicknesses will translate to temps rising to just above
normal. -gih

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 220 am Tuesday...

nnely low level will draw an area of low stratus and fog over sern
va, sswwd into the nc coastal plain through 12z; and this will
result in a risk of lifr ceilings and visibility restrictions this
morning near and especially just northeast of rwi - toward ixa, etc,
and asj. Otherwise, periods of high level moisture will stream
overhead in wswly upr level flow, and with a scattering of 4-6
thousand ft stratocumulus with heating this afternoon. Surface winds
will be generally light from the northeast, with perhaps a few gusts
into the teens kts mainly at fay between 15-19z.

Outlook: low pressure will develop off the coast of the sern us on
wed, then track nnewd in the vicinity of the coastline of the
carolinas Wed night through thu. An area of rain and sub-vfr
conditions will likely, consequently blossom nwwd into cntl nc late
wed and particularly Wed night, then linger through thu. The passage
of a trailing mid to upr level disturbance will then result in a
chance of lightVFR rain or sprinkles, mainly from mid level
ceilings, throughout cntl nc Thu afternoon into early Thu night.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Jjm
short term... Wss
long term... Hartfield
aviation... Mws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC15 mi35 minN 32.50 miFog/Mist30°F29°F98%1028.4 hPa
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi20 minN 30.75 miOvercast33°F32°F100%1030.8 hPa

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6CalmN3CalmN7NE11
G16
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW8
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N7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Tue -- 03:08 AM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:30 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:33 PM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:03 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.12.22.93.33.12.621.30.70.3-0.1-00.71.82.83.33.432.41.71.10.60.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chester, James River, Virginia
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Chester
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Tue -- 03:21 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:31 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:46 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:04 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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122.83.23.12.621.40.80.3-0-00.61.72.63.23.332.41.81.20.60.2-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.