Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:35PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:35 PM EDT (17:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 6:52AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
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location: 36.52, -78.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 191513
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1115 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
The passage of a weak upper disturbance, interacting with a very
moist and slightly unstable atmosphere, will support the development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through this
evening across central nc. A much stronger upper disturbance and
attendant surface cold front will cross the region late Thursday and
Thursday evening. A more stable air mass will settle over the area
Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1115 am Wednesday...

morning analysis reveals a very moist air mass in place with
precipitable water values hovering around 2 inches (slightly higher
east and slightly lower west). Water vapor imagery depicts a weak
perturbation lifting east-northeast across the region with another
on its heels, crossing the savannah river valley of eastern georgia.

The initial perturbation aiding in sustaining a few light rain
showers across the region as well as maintaining a low cloud deck.

Anticipate some thinning dissipation of these low clouds through
early afternoon. Heating destablization of the moist air mass will
lead to additional convective activity. Unlike Tuesday in which
there was a discernible zone of convergence to organize the
convection, no such feature noted in the low level analysis. Thus,
expect convection to be more random. Still expect a slightly higher
concentration across sections of the northern piedmont and the
coastal plain where an axis of deeper moisture exists along with
weak speed convergence. By late afternoon-early evening, the
perturbations aloft will further weaken and drift eastward. With
weak subsidence likely in the wake of the departing disturbances,
expect scattered convection to slowly diminish dissipate through the
evening hours.

With extensive cloudiness inhibiting insolation this morning, expect
highs this afternoon to be 3-5 degrees cooler than Tuesday, though
the high humidity will still make it feel uncomfortable for most
folks. Expect highs this afternoon to range from the mid 80s north
to the upper 80s near 90 south. Overnight temperatures not too much
different than last night, mainly near 70-lower 70s.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
As of 425 am Wednesday...

the progression of a mid-level shortwave still remains the primary
story for Thursday. The general idea is for weak vorticity across
the central united states to slowly progress east towards central
north carolina early Thursday morning as an upper level low rotates
over quebec. Thursday afternoon into evening the low over quebec
will rotate south and east helping to accelerate the shortwave east
across va. The continued question over the last couple of days is
how amplified will the wave end up being. Latest GFS and ECMWF runs
have back off a bit on the amplitude of the wave with the GFS no
longer showing a PV hook. The resultant surface low with this
feature is understandably not as strong as previous advertised
(~1000 mb), but still fairly impressive for this time of year. 500
mb height falls and implied DCVA with this system are weak to
moderate at around 20 m. In the upper levels of the atmosphere
though a splitting jet as well as a propagating jet streak will
support plentiful lift (rrq divergence and splitting jet
diffluence). Pwats Thursday are forecast to be around 1.90", or near
max values for this time of year. Instability at this time is strong
with ml CAPE values around 1500 j kg. Both the NAM and GFS initially
show a low level cap in place which should help to hold back
convection initially. This will allow high temperatures to quickly
rise into the lower to mid 90s across the region.

By Thursday afternoon the cap will erode allowing convective
initiation to occur. Surface to 6 km shear values with the
approaching shortwave are forecast to rise to around 35 40 kts. Any
storms that form and are able to remain discrete will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail as low level
lapse rates average around 9 degrees c km. Dcape values across the
south are also forecast to be around 1300 j kg. Surface delta theta-
e values are forecast to be around 25 thanks to mid level dewpoint
depressions being between 5 and 10 degrees c. Eventually the strong
dcape and perpendicular anvil storm relative flow will support
merging cold pools. If this were to occur a transition to damaging
winds as the primary threat would occur. Mesoscale details are very
uncertain at the point though as convection from Wednesday will
likely influence the evolution of the approaching wave.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 430 am Wednesday...

Friday morning a cool front will swing through the zones as the
shortwave exits the east coast. Over the last couple of days it has
become more and more apparent that this front will likely be
transient with only a slightly affect on temperatures Friday. This
is supported by low level thermal profiles. For example, 925 mb
temperatures Friday afternoon quickly surge towards 25 degrees
c across the southwest. Due to this have raised temperatures
Friday afternoon across the south.

Friday evening into Saturday mid- level heights will rise across the
great lakes with an upper level low over nd heading east. As the low
over nd heads east PV will break off from the low and spill
northeast and move up and over the mid-level ridge. The weak front
from Friday will quickly wash out Saturday with a recycled moisture
threat regime likely setting up. The gfs, ECMWF and cmc all show
slightly different tracks for the PV as it rounds the ridge, but
have kept slight chance pops to account for this. Sunday morning
another batch of PV embedded in the ridge will bring a continued
chance of showers and thunderstorms to central nc. By this time the
multiple rounds of PV rounding the ridge will spell its collapse
with heights falls occurring across the midwest. Tuesday,
another shortwave will move across the great lakes with a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms over central nc.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 740 am Wednesday...

a chance of showers will linger this morning, as a series of mid to
upr-lvl disturbances move enewd across cntl nc. Scattered, to
locally numerous, showers and storms are expected to develop with
diurnal heating, perhaps initially along an old outflow boundary
draped this morning from near rwi to rdu, then persist through this
afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, ifr-MVFR ceilings this
morning are likely to lift and scatter toVFR between 14-17z - first
at fay.

Outlook: showers and storms, likely in small clusters and lines with
45-55 kt wind gusts and initially also some hail, will spread ewd
across the carolinas Thu afternoon and evening. A drier and more
stable air mass, and mainlyVFR conditions, will follow later thu
night through the start of the weekend. An MCS (convective cluster),
one with strong to damaging wind gusts and hail, will be possible
over cntl nc on Sunday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Wss
short term... Haines
long term... Haines
aviation... Mws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 95 mi41 min 80°F 80°F1010.1 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC15 mi55 minN 010.00 mi78°F71°F82%1011.2 hPa
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi40 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast80°F76°F90%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN6E4CalmCalmCalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW9SW4SW11
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CalmCalmS6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8SW8SW8SW8SW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Wed -- 12:52 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:42 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 PM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.81.72.73.33.63.42.92.31.71.20.70.30.20.81.72.533.12.72.21.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chester, James River, Virginia
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Chester
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Wed -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:14 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:43 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.61.52.43.13.43.32.92.31.71.10.70.30.20.71.52.32.832.72.21.61.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.