Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:21PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 4:55 AM EDT (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 3:39AMMoonset 4:53PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 36.52, -78.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 krah 230820
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
420 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A series of low pressure systems will cross central nc through mid-
week, causing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Improving
weather conditions are anticipated by late in the week.

Near term /today through tonight/
As of 310 am Tuesday...

Flood watch in effect today through this evening...

coverage of showers and embedded storms has fallen to a relative
minimum early this morning, however slow-moving convective cells
with 1-2"/hr rates have produced pockets of high totals over parts
of the piedmont in the last several hours. Areas of showers and
storms will continue to spread over central nc from the SW through
the day, as mid level perturbations track northeastward in the
cyclonic flow around an expansive low centered over mn/ia and
covering much of the central/eastern conus. The surface pattern is
quite messy this morning, muddied by subtle synoptic-scale features
and convectively-induced boundaries and mesoscale highs within a
light low-level flow. There appears to be two main dewpoint
discontinuities, one just NW of the forecast area and another to the
south across central ga and central sc. Pw values along and south of
the latter frontal zone are close to daily record values, and these
(as well as the front itself) are expected to surge northward into
central/eastern nc through the day. Forecast soundings continue to
depict a deep saturated warm layer (lcl-0c of nearly 4 km) over
central nc later today, favoring warm rain processes, and the
initial weak flow will lead to slow-moving and poorly organized
cells through this morning, until the steering flow picks up a bit
toward midday. Most models with both parameterized and explicit
convection generate areas of heavy rainfall totals today through
this evening, although they differ on location, likely a function of
the murky and diffuse surface pattern and resultant variations in
low level mass convergence that are tipping the scales to heavy rain
production. With the high water content and strengthening deep layer
forcing for ascent as the most prominent mid level wave tracks ne
through the carolinas today, expect likely to categorical pops
areawide today, with a risk of high rain totals and pockets of
flooding possible anywhere. Based on the pace of movement of the
rain area now extending back across ga/al and southern ms and the
model projections of the movement of the upper divergence maxima
across the carolinas today, expect the peak threat of flooding rains
to occur late morning through mid afternoon, gradually tapering down
and pushing to our ene this evening. Will issue a flood watch in
effect from 5 am this morning until 2 am tonight, with storm total
amounts of 1-3" likely and locally higher totals probable. Will
taper down pops west to east tonight as the mid level wave and upper
jet core shift to our ne, although a moist and stable pool overnight
will lead to lingering areas of drizzle and thick stratus. Temps
have a high error potential today, as any amount of sunshine in the
se CWA could send readings soaring. Will go with highs from the
upper 60s NW to the upper 70s se. Lows tonight 58-65. -gih

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/
As of 410 am Tuesday...

little change in forecast weather pattern and forecaster rationale
since 24 hours ago. Potential severe weather event on Wed looks very
similar to the surface evolution/pattern, storm mode, and timing
experienced a couple of weeks ago/on may 5th.

An initially (slightly) positively-tilted longwave trough from ern
canada to the SRN plains, including an embedded mid-upper low over
the mid ms valley/upper midwest at 12z wed, will migrate ewd and
assume an increasingly negative-tilt as it pivots across the
carolinas and middle atlantic states by Thu and Thu night. Fast,
perturbed, and moist sswly to sly flow aloft will precede the
trough.

A complex pattern will result at the surface through the middle of
the week. A frontal zone will likely be draped swwd from a series of
waves passing across and offshore the middle atlantic coast, marking
the SRN periphery of weak ridging/cad/low ovc extending across most
of va/nc at the start of the day wed, then extending nwwd as a warm
front to a low over the WRN oh valley.

That front, edge of the cad regime, and focus for convection, will
then likely retreat nwd with a narrow wedge of warm sector through
srn and perhaps portions of ERN nc during the day wed, then through
the remainder of central nc early Wed night, all immediately ahead
of, and associated with, a triple point low that will develop and
migrate across the WRN carolinas very late Wed afternoon and wed
night. Initial cad conditions, and subsequent convection along the
retreating warm front, will tend to slow the retreat of the unstable
warm sector and NRN bound for any severe threat through much of wed,
such that any strong to severe potential will likely remain from
wadesboro to goldsboro and rocky mount and points sewd. That
unstable warm sector should then surge nwd through the remainder of
central nc early Wed night, immediately ahead of the triple point
low, yielding brief --but likely sufficient-- (weak) destabilization
to support surface-based qlcs storms capable of producing both
swaths of damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes along
embedded mesovortices/bows/lewps. The cold/occluded front will cause
the warm sector and associated severe threat to collapse ewd and
through the coastal plain late Wed night-early thu.

Brief drying and clearing will be probable through early midday thu,
but clouds will redevelop with heating, with an additional band or
bands of convection --in fast,cyclonic, and caa-bearing flow aloft--
which will spread newd across central nc through late afternoon, the
wrn edge of which may result in a strongly forced line of storms
along the ERN periphery of focused forcing for ascent accompanying
the aforementioned upper trough/low. Cold temperatures/steep lapse
rates aloft will favor small hail in even marginally strong cores;
and a 50-70 kt sswly speed MAX on ERN fringe of the upper trough
will support organized storm modes, including low-topped (splitting)
supercells, given long and relatively straight forecast hodographs,
which would be capable of producing severe hail and damaging
straight line winds. Any tornado threat would be mitigated by both a
veering of the low level flow to swly (ie. No backing of the sfc
flow) and sfc dewpoints AOB 60 degrees that would favor
evaporatively-cooled downdrafts and cool rfd's.

Temperatures will be slow to climb into/through the 60s on wed,
probably reaching calendar day highs at piedmont sites between 00z
and midnight, with afternoon highs in the 70s probable over the sern
tier or two of counties. Lows in the 60s Wed night, and highs Thu in
the upper 60s to 70s, inhibited by both variably to mostly cloudy
skies and convection during the afternoon.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
As of 415 am Tuesday...

dry conditions will return by Thu night, as the upper trough lifts
away and weak high pressure expands across the sern states through
early sat. A warm front will develop newd across the central
appalachians later Sat and across the middle atlantic states by sun;
with a return to warmer and more humid conditions, and a chance of
convection --some probably severe owing to relatively strong wind
fields, and steep lapse rates related to a large plume of EML that
will likely have overspread much of the sern u.S. And SRN middle
atlantic states by the weekend-- focused along and north of the
front late Sat afternoon onward.

Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/
As of 1255 am Tuesday...

lower than usual confidence this morning. Aviation conditions
currently vary fromVFR at int/rdu/rwi to MVFR at gso and ifr at
fay, and this variation will continue through 09z this morning,
after which time we should see a trend to prevailing MVFR/ifr at
int/gso/rdu and perhaps rwi, with MVFR toVFR conditions at fay this
morning. A large area of showers and isolated storms is expected to
spread over central nc throughout the day, lasting into the evening,
and a trend back down to prevailing ifr conditions are anticipated
at all sites by late morning, with low CIGS and occasional MVFR to
ifr vsbys in heavy rain. Unfortunately, details regarding the
specific timing of this heavy rain and storms is uncertain, but we
do have confidence in poor aviation conditions dominating through
tonight, as low (mainly ifr) CIGS are expected to persist overnight
even as the heavier rain departs from west to east between 00z and
06z. A surface front oriented SW to NE across central nc will hold
in place today as low pressure tracks northeastward along it,
leading to erratic winds at central nc terminals, mainly from the
se/s shifting to SW at fay, and mainly from the NE elsewhere through
tonight.

Looking beyond 06z late tonight/early Wed morning, adverse aviation
conditions are likely to hold Wed through Wed night as a deep mid
level trough and surface cold front approach from the west, bringing
another round of heavy showers and a few potentially strong
thunderstorms. Improvement to mostlyVFR is expected thu, although
scattered afternoon showers generating MVFR conditions are possible.

Vfr conditions should return for fri/sat as a weak high pressure
ridge extends into the area. -gih

Rah watches/warnings/advisories
Flood watch through late tonight for ncz007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Hartfield
short term... Mws
long term... Mws
aviation... Hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 95 mi26 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 66°F

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC15 mi66 minN 05.00 miRain64°F63°F96%1012.9 hPa
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi60 minN 07.00 miOvercast66°F65°F100%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last 24hrSE4SE4E4E7SE7SW11
G14
SW6NW6NW5W6NW4NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS4S5SW5SW5SW3Calm
1 day agoE8E7E4NE5NE6E4E5NE3E4NE4NE3NE6NE4NE5E7CalmNE4CalmE3NE3SE4SE3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW3S4SW6SW5W6NW3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE3CalmNE6E10
G15
E9
G14
E9E11
G15
E8E8E8NE6E9E7

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Petersburg
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:11 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:51 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:44 PM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:49 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.63.43.73.63.12.41.81.20.70.40.20.61.62.63.23.332.41.71.10.60.30.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Puddledock Sand
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Puddledock Sand & Gravel
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:21 AM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:03 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:45 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:12 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.33.63.53.12.41.60.90.3-0.10.31.222.42.82.92.621.30.70.2-0.10.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (4,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.