Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:05PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:49 PM EST (03:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:31PMMoonset 2:03AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
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location: 36.52, -78.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 250318
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1017 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure centered off the southeast coast will gradually drift
southeastward tonight and Sunday. A cold front will move slowly east
across the area Sunday night and into Monday. Cooler high pressure
will build in from the north Monday night and Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1015 pm Saturday...

deep mid upper level ridging located off the southeast u.S. Coast
will continue to slowly be pushed further southward overnight as S w
energy lifts from the plains into the upper midwest and great lakes
region allowing for a cold front to approach the area from the west.

This has allowed for some increase in mid high clouds across the
area (especially the northern half). This combined with a nice
southerly flow overnight should overall limit fog potential.

However, we could see at least some patchy fog across the far
south southeast along with the potential for stratus development
areawide. With regard to precip chances, while we cant completely
rule out some sprinkles across the far northwest piedmont early
Sunday morning, expect generally dry conditions. Overnight lows
should be quite mild again, near record high mins. Expect lows will
generally be in the lower 60s.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
As of 355 pm Saturday...

the remnants of today's mid lower miss valley convection will track
well to our north through Sun morning, but this will help tamp down
the SE coast mid atlantic mid level ridge. Upshear, a subtle
trailing perturbation tracking NE over N mexico late today is
expected to track NE over the S and central appalachians on Sunday,
along and ahead of the incoming surface cold front. Decent low level
moisture transport into our area will persist sun, however much of
central nc, particularly S and E of the triad, will see lingering
relatively dry low and mid level air, with rather timid surface
dewpoint advection compounded by good mixing to limit potential
instability. Kinematics and dynamic forcing will be small through
the first part of the day, but mid level winds will accelerate late
in the day Sun and into Sun night, and a southerly 850 mb jetlet
around the periphery of the offshore ridge, just off the E coast of
mexico and tx this evening, is projected to sweep E NE and into the
carolinas, leading to increasing low level mass convergence along
and ahead of the front Sun night. Expect increasing pops to good
chance Sun afternoon, with isolated thunder possible in the SE cwa
based on projections of a few hundred j kg of MUCAPE and
strengthening deep layer shear, although mid level lapse rates are
quite poor, which should greatly hold down the thunder risk. Will
trend pops up to likely and categorical from the SW Sun night, with
the highest pops in our sw. With the delay in precip chances, highs
should range from the lower 70s NW to lower 80s se. Lows from the
mid 50s to the lower 60s, with the front settling into the piedmont
overnight. -gih

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 245 pm Saturday...

models maintain their consensus on a wave lifting northeast along
the stalled cold front on Monday, and will be raising pops to
categorical across the southern tier. In addition, will add a chance
for rumblers in the southeast where even though instability will be
very weak to non-existent, we will have just about everything else
needed - low level convergence, shear, and upper dynamics - to
support at least modest convection. Cool air will be flowing in
behind the wave, and highs will struggle to make much headway in the
cloudy and moist airmass, so expect the northern tier to stall in
the upper 50s, while the southeast should reach mid 60s. Cooler
airmass settles in Monday night, with lows bottoming out mostly in
the lower 40s, with some upper 30s possible across the north where
radiational conditions (decoupling) will be more favorable.

Dry high pressure will build across the area, and quickly offshore
Tuesday into Tuesday night, with sunny skies and highs climbing to
60 to 65 on Tuesday with mins in the mid 40s Tuesday night.

Moisture will increase rapidly in return flow on Wednesday, with
showers increasing in the west and spreading into central nc during
the afternoon. There is a bit of uncertainty as to how shortwaves in
the northern and southern streams, respectively, will phase during
the mid to late week period. Regardless, it looks pretty wet as a
warm front lifts north up the atlantic coast ahead of what will be a
strong low pressure area and associated cold front moving east
across the ohio valley great lakes region. The surface cold front
will move across the area later Thursday, so will have likely pops
Wednesday night through Thursday as timing confidence is not high
this far out. Highs Wednesday will reach the low to mid 60s, while
we should be mild Wednesday night ahead of the front... 50 to 55.

Strong warm air advection ahead of the front will allow us to reach
65 to 70 on Thursday. The low pressure system is expected to slow
and make a southeasterly jog as it moves offshore, which could
change the equation, but at this point, lingering showers should be
gone by Friday morning, with seasonable highs Friday and cooler air
settling south on Saturday. Highs Friday will be mostly in the lower
60s, with Saturday topping out from 55 to 60.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 630 pm Saturday...

vfr conditions will hold through this evening. There is a chance for
development of MVFR or high-level ifr CIGS after 09z tonight,
however a steady SW wind overnight will keep the low levels stirred,
such that confidence in the occurrence of sub-vfr CIGS late tonight
is low. And vsbys are likely to remainVFR regardless. Any sub-vfr
cigs will start to lift and break up by 16z sun.

A trend to sub-vfr conditions will begin Sunday night as a cold
front moves slowly SE through the area, settling across SE nc mon
morning. Sub-vfr conditions with showers and isolated storms will be
the most likely and the longest lasting over the SE (fay), lasting
through much of mon, while at other sites, high pressure will start
to build in behind the front, leading to a trend to mostlyVFR
conditions Mon at int gso rdu rwi.VFR conditions will dominate
tue Wed under high pressure. The next chance for sub-vfr conditions
will be Wed evening night into Thu as the front heads back northward
into the area as a warm front, bringing a chance for showers.

Climate
Rdu records:
date | high year | high min year
------------------------------------------
02 25 82 1930 58 1985
gso records:
date | high year | high min year
------------------------------------------
02 25 81 1930 55 1985
fay records:
date | high year | high min year
-------------------------------------------
02 25 85 1930 57 1992

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Hartfield franklin
near term... Bsd
short term... Hartfield
long term... Mlm
aviation... Hartfield franklin
climate... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC15 mi54 minS 610.00 miFair64°F56°F76%1017.9 hPa
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi54 minS 510.00 miFair65°F60°F87%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4CalmCalmSW4SW6SW6SW5S6SW9SW12
G18
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1 day agoNE7NE6NE7NE6NE6NE7NE6E6NE4NE3E4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS10SW11SW8SW7SW8SW7SW8SW7SW8SW9SW10S7
G15
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G14
S3CalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Sat -- 02:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:56 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:15 AM EST     3.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:16 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:07 PM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.510.50.20.10.30.91.92.83.132.72.11.510.60.30.20.30.91.82.52.7

Tide / Current Tables for Puddledock Sand
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Puddledock Sand & Gravel
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Sat -- 02:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:40 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:38 AM EST     3.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:30 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:59 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.30.70.30-00.51.62.42.93.33.332.41.71.10.60.10.20.81.62.12.42.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.