Saturday, August19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:59PM Saturday August 19, 2017 1:39 AM EDT (05:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:07AMMoonset 5:32PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
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location: 36.52, -78.34     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 190511
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
112 am edt Sat aug 19 2017

A cold front will move into the piedmont overnight. The front will
slowly across the coastal plain on Saturday before pushing off the
coast on Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 1015 pm Friday...

a well defined mid level trough encountering the moist and slightly
unstable air mass over central nc will continue to trigger and
sustain scattered convection through the rest of the evening and
into the first half of the overnight. Near sfc atmosphere
stabilizing with loss of heating, so the threat for strong wind
gusts diminishing. Parameters aloft over the northern coastal plain
still support conditions ideal for frequent abundant lightning with
the storms. While the atmosphere abundantly moist, steering flow in
the the order of 20kts will aid to push the storms along, decreasing
the potential for locally excessive rainfall.

Through 06z, bulk of the scattered convection will occur in vicinity
of the highway 1 corridor. After 06z, most of the convection should
occur along and east of i-95.

Sfc cold front attendant with the mid level trough will enter the
northern piedmont after 06z, and likely bisect the region sw-ne at
daybreak Saturday. A slightly drier more stable air mass will begin
to filter into the northwest piedmont after 10z. Otherwise
warm muggy conditions will persist overnight with temperatures
generally in the mid-upper 70s.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
As of 300 pm Friday...

the cold front reaches the coastal plain Saturday morning and
slowly slips east and moves off the coast by daybreak Sunday.

An upper level trough approaches the region from the oh valley
on Saturday afternoon with the trough axis moving across central
nc toward daybreak Sunday. A much drier air mass moves into the
region with precipitable water values dropping into the 1.1
(west) to 1.6 (east) range by Saturday afternoon. While a small
threat for a shower or storm lingers across the coastal plain
and sandhills near the cold front, generally dry conditions are
expected elsewhere. The air mass cools slightly with highs
ranging between 88 to 94 degrees Saturday afternoon. Drier air
moves into the area from the northwest Saturday night, and dew
points fall into the mid to upper 60s across the piedmont and
the lower 70s in the coastal plain. This will support much more
comfortable lows in the upper 60s in the piedmont and lower 70s
in the coastal plain. -blaes &&

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 244 pm Friday...

dry weather is expected on Sunday across all of central nc with a
dissipating front now progged well to our south and rather inactive
westerly flow aloft. Given the steady-state airmass combined with
ample sunshine, we should easily see highs into the low 90s.

On Monday we'll see heights rise as the ridge off the SE coast
builds northward. The sfc pattern will be fairly typical for this
time of year with the sfc high over the western atlantic promoting a
southerly low level flow over our area. Forecast soundings show a
notable inversion around h7 with dry air in the mid-levels, and in
some cases (particularly across our southern and eastern counties) a
fair amount of moisture above h4. Thus with heating, the forecast
soundings suggest a decent amount of shallow CU may form below the
inversion across much of central nc as the afternoon progresses. To
make matters worse, the soundings also suggest a veil of cirrus, esp
the farther south you go. If there is any good news, these
soundings do not support rain or deep convection, so will keep pops
well below climo for Monday. So in summary for the eclipse weather,
neither clear nor completely overcast, but rather partly cloudy with
cu briefly obscuring the Sun at times, along with some high clouds.

Keep in mind that if you spend any substantial time outside, be
ready for highs in the low-mid 90s with heat index values in the
upper 90s.

Tuesday should be mostly dry as the ridge slowly moves east, but
then rain chances will increase on Wednesday as the next northern
stream short wave moves south and east and pushes a cold front
across our area. The longwave trough will continue to deepen over
the east, so look for cooler temps by late next week, and perhaps
even a brief break from the high humidity for next weekend.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 112 am Saturday...

a broken line of showers and storms will cross central nc this
evening into very early Saturday morning in advance of a cold front
moving into the area from the west. The activity is currently moving
through krdu and will affect the eastern TAF sites krwi and kfay
through 09z. Heavy rain and gusty winds, along with a brief period
of ifr conditions will be possible with the strongest storms.

The cold front will be moving into the central piedmont by around
daybreak, and will push slowly east across the nc coastal plain by
the afternoon. As such, isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms will be possible at kfay this afternoon. Otherwise, dry air
filtering into the area in the wake of the front will result
in dryVFR conditions Saturday afternoon evening.

Outlook:VFR conditions are expected Saturday night and Sunday with
dry weather expected. The threat of late-day storms and some early-
morning fog and stratus will return Tuesday with numerous showers
and storms expected to accompany a cold frontal passage
Wednesday Wednesday night.

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Blaes
near term... Wss
short term... Blaes
long term... Np
aviation... Bsd blaes

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 95 mi40 min S 5.8 G 7.8 84°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC15 mi50 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F71°F96%1013.5 hPa
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi45 minN 07.00 miOvercast76°F75°F100%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS5S3S4S5S5SW4S5SW3SW3CalmS6S3SW7SW4S5S10S8S4S5W7
1 day agoS3S3S4CalmS3SW3CalmS4S6SW4S5S3NE6SE3SE8S7S6S5S4S4S5S6S5S4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5NE3N3N5E4NE3NE5CalmCalmS3SE3S3S3CalmCalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Sat -- 02:08 AM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:53 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:46 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:58 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Puddledock Sand
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Puddledock Sand & Gravel
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Sat -- 02:19 AM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:45 PM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:00 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.