Thursday, June21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:17 AM EDT (08:17 UTC) Moonrise 1:30PMMoonset 1:00AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
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location: 36.52, -78.34     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 210801
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
401 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

A back-door cold front will drift southward and will stall near the
va and nc border this evening and tonight, before quickly lift back
north into va on Friday. Otherwise, a trough of low pressure will
linger across central nc through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am Thursday...

closed upper low digging SE into the lower ms valley will briefly
reinforce the mid upper level ridge axis extending north over the se
us today, before finally getting displaced and shunted east off the
se coast this evening and overnight. Convectively enhanced vorticity
impulses, currently across western tn, will eject east ahead of the
upper low, and is progged to arrive into the western piedmont by
late afternoon early evening, before crossing the area overnight.

Around the same time, the slow-moving quasi-stationary cold front
over the mid-atlantic is forecast to sag south to near the va

Initially, expect convective coverage to be fairly isolated with
storms firing up INVOF of the lee side trough and instability axis
in place across central nc. But then coverage pops is expected to
increase during the late afternoon and evening hours, especially
across the northern third of the forecast area as the vort
disturbances interact with the southward sagging cold front. Deep
layer shear of 25-30 kts will bring a marginal risk of severe
storms, with the potential for damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in
the deepest strongest updraft cores. Storm intensity should
gradually weaken with nocturnal stabilization.

However, with both the disturbances tracking east through the area
and the frontal zone close by, rain chances could persist through
the overnight hours.

Highs today will range from near 90 north to mid 90s south. MAX heat
indices of 100 to 103 across the southern counties look like they
will far just short of the 105 degree advisory criteria. As such,
will forgo any advisory issuance with this package, but will put a
mention in the hazardous weather outlook. Overnight lows in the 70s.

Short term Friday and Friday night
As of 400 am Thursday...

closed low over the lower ms valley will lift NE into the ohio
valley and lower great lakes regions Friday and Friday night.

Meanwhile the stalled frontal zone near the va border is forecast to
quickly lift back north into va as a warm front Friday morning,
leaving all of central nc in the warm sector.

With the front now north of the area, and with models showing drier
air aloft spreading east into the area, models are showing less
convective coverage compared to yesterday, suggesting more in the
way of scattered coverage Friday afternoon. Have lowered pops from
likely to good chance 40-50 across the area. With central nc on the
se fringes of the enhanced cyclonic flow aloft, deep layer shear of
25 to 35 kts, strongest in the west, could support a few severe

Highs ranging from upper 80s near 90 north to lower 90s south. Lows
in the 70s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 350 am Thursday...

broadscale troughing in the east will continue for the first half of
the long term period as a mid latitude closed low weakens into an
open wave over the great lakes region. By the middle of next week,
the northern jet returns to canada allowing a rather abrupt reversal
to ridging across the SE conus, with some early indications of a
carolina coastal low development Wednesday into Thursday.

At the surface, a front will continue its journey north through the
mid atlantic, bringing a decrease to shower storm chances by
Saturday afternoon evening. Southerly southwesterly flow
reestablishes late weekend ahead of a cold front, which is expected
to increase pops and drag S sewrd through the region Monday, with a
cooler and drier area of high pressure wedging south along the
appalachians by Tuesday morning. Some significant uncertainty
introduces itself to the forecast at this point, with models trending
wildly through the end of next week. The 00z GFS can models indicate
the formation of a sfc low off of the nc sc coastline on Wednesday,
which lingers through the end of the work week, interrupting the
cooler airmass. Meanwhile, the ecmwf, which has been more
consistent, has no such feature, keeping a stronger area of high
pressure off of the NE CONUS through the weekend. For now, splitting
the difference, keeping low end pops across the east Thu fri, and
notching temps up a degree or two, but high bust potential here.

Temperature wise, expect a warming trend Sat and Sun as the first
frontal boundary retreats north, allowing a gradual
warming moistening trend to take hold. This will allow temps in the
low 90s Saturday afternoon, with mid to upper 90s possible on
Sunday. Afternoon highs will likely be throttled a bit on Monday
thanks to leftover convective clouds associated with the cold front,
which should pave the way for high temps mostly in the mid to upper
80s Tue Wed thu. Lows over the weekend will drop into the low to mid
70s, with a few 60 degree readings possible Tue and Wed mornings.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 200 am Thursday...

isolated convection associated with the upper level disturbance
moving through the region will either dissipate or pass east of the
area through 09z. However, it does look like these storms will
impact rdu briefly, between 06 to 07z. Otherwise, cannot rule out
patchy stratus and or fog development between 09z to 12z, especially
where the heavier rainfall this past evening.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon and evening, that could potentially linger well into the
overnight hours as a back-door cold front sags south near the va
border. The greatest concentration of convection is consequently
likely to occur from near and north of the piedmont sites, ewd to
rwi. Ifr-MVFR conditions in low clouds and or fog could develop on
the cool side of that front, over NRN and nern nc and va; and some
of these conditions may edge as far swd as rwi Fri morning.

Outlook: expect mainly scattered diurnal convection Friday through
the weekend. A cold front moving through the area Monday-Monday
night will result in higher rain chances.

Max temperature and high-minimum temperature records...

rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 21 100 1933 75 1924
06 22 100 1914 75 1981
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 21 101 1933 75 1933
06 22 100 1981 78 1933
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 21 105 1933 84 1928
06 22 101 1990 84 1928

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Cbl
near term... Cbl
short term... Cbl
long term... Jjm
aviation... Cbl
climate... Kcp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC15 mi43 minENE 35.00 miFog/Mist70°F68°F97%1009.1 hPa
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi23 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F70°F100%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW3CalmCalmNW4CalmE5CalmCalmCalmSW6SW4S4SW3W4SW3CalmCalmN5CalmSW4S6S4SW5Calm
1 day agoW5W5W4W4NW6NW6NW5W5W5NW6W8W6W7W5W5SW4CalmCalmNE12
2 days agoCalmSW3CalmCalmN3CalmN3N3W4N4N5N3N4CalmSW3SW4S3CalmSW3SW3W3SW4SW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Thu -- 01:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:39 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Puddledock Sand
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Puddledock Sand & Gravel
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Thu -- 01:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:19 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:15 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:39 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:56 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.