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FXUS62 KRAH 261936 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 336 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the weekend. Flow will turn swly early next week as the the western ridge of the sfc high extends inland.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 243 PM Thursday...

Light enely flow continues this afternoon as high pressure extends down into our area. Further southwest, a warm front draped across the TN valley continues to generate clouds and light rain mostly over the southern Appalachians. Elevated radar echoes have been observed trickling into our southern Piedmont, but none has reached the sfc. We should continue to stay dry, however some very light patchy rain may reach the sfc in the Triad/northern Piedmont later tonight. Overall though, expecting mostly dry conditions. Overnight lows will dip into the lower to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 105 PM Friday...

As the upper level ridge persists across the Mid-Atlantic region, dry weather is expected to continue over the short term period. At the surface, high pressure off the north Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday morning will continue to influence easterly winds on Saturday. By late Saturday night early Sunday the high will slide south and winds over the region will be come southerly. Temperatures Saturday will be a few degrees below average with highs ranging from the upper 60s along the north to mid 70s along the south. With cloud coverage continuing through the night, lows will be above average ranging from mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM Friday...

Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US on Sunday and Monday. At the surface, western Atlantic high pressure will weaken and shift south from off the NC coast on Sunday to off the GA/SC coast by Monday, shifting the surface flow across our region to a S/SW direction. This will bring mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures, with highs increasing from upper-70s to lower-80s on Sunday to mid-to-upper-80s on Monday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to around 60. While these temperatures won't break any records, they are still around 5-10 degrees above normal.

Clouds will increase on Tuesday as the ridge gets replaced by a shortwave trough approaching from the west that reaches central NC by Tuesday evening/night and interacts with a lee surface trough in place. However, the synoptic cold front doesn't look to make it to central NC. Also the shortwave looks fairly weak and the time of day of its passage looks too late for the most favorable daytime heating for convection. Still, instability will be high enough that a few storms are possible, especially over the western Piedmont.

Can't rule out a bit more diurnal convection on Wednesday and Thursday, but with a lack of forcing and another mid/upper ridge moving overhead, coverage should be very isolated at best. The next northern stream trough looks to dive down into the Upper Midwest on Friday, as a cold front approaches. This will bring potential for better coverage of showers and storms. High temperatures will continue to be very warm, in the mid-to-upper-80s, through the workweek. Isolated spots in the south could even reach 90. Lows will be in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 121 PM Friday...

KINT/KGSO will continue to see fleeting MVFR ceilings the next hour or so but should scatter out to VFR the rest of this afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through early tonight under light enely sfc flow. MVFR ceilings will then sock back in at KINT/KGSO overnight (and perhaps some patchy light rain for a bit tonight). Guidance does not favor MVFR ceilings forming at KRDU/KRWI/KFAY. Instead, however, some guidance suggest some reduced visibilities via fog may be possible at KFAY/KRWI.
Added a tempo group at these sites between 10 and 14Z to account for this possibility.

MVFR ceilings at KINT/kGSO will likely linger through the end of the 24hr TAF period.

Outlook: KINT/KGSO will lift to VFR by Saturday afternoon as offshore high pressure promotes dry and light esely sfc flow.
Additional stratus and fog may be possible early Sunday morning.
Diurnal showers and scattered storms may be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Petersburg
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Fri -- 12:44 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:56 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
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Fri -- 07:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:52 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:41 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
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Fri -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
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