Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:36PM Saturday June 23, 2018 2:09 PM EDT (18:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:29PMMoonset 2:04AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
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location: 36.52, -78.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 231552
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1115 am edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
A weak surface trough will linger over central nc this weekend. A
weak cold front will cross the region Sunday night through early
Monday. This will be followed by a ridge of high pressure which will
extend across the region through midweek.

Near term through tonight
As of 1115 am Saturday...

forecast is on track after some minor temp tweaks to allow for
morning low cloudiness over the foothills western piedmont. An
impulse lifting north and east across the area is on track to fuel a
broken line of convection, mainly across the more deeply unstable
east, this afternoon.

Previous discussion: upper low over the ohio valley will de-amplify
into an open wave trough as it moves into the NE us later this
morning. With only meager forcing of the lingering lee surface
trough and strong diabatic heating, subsidence in the wake of the
exiting shortwave is expected to greatly suppress convection this
afternoon evening, keeping coverage isolated to widely scattered.

Strong insolation amidst the lower 70 dewpoint air in place across
the eastern piedmont, sandhills and coastal plain, will fuel mlcape
of 1000 to 2000 j kg this afternoon. With continued unseasonably
strong deep layer shear of 25 to 35 kts across the region, a
isolated severe storm or two could is possible. Inverted-v
profiles(dcape of 1000-2000 j kg) will enhance downdrafts, which
will support the potential for a few damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts.

With no airmass change, highs today will be comparable to Friday.

Highs in the upper 80s 90 near north to mid 90 se.

Tonight: any lingering storms will quickly weaken and dissipate with
loss of heating. However, weak vort disturbances embedded in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft could support the isolated re-development of
showers overnight. Lows in the 70s.

Short term Sunday and Sunday night
As of 350 am Saturday...

h5 heights rebound across the area on Sunday within the quasi-zonal
flow aloft. Meanwhile, the persistent lee-side trough will
sharpen become better defined in response to downslope flow east of
the mtns. This will help to boost afternoon highs a good 2 to 3
degrees, ranging from lower 90s north to mid upper 90s south.

Initially, weak sfc convergence along the piedmont trough and strong
diabatic heating will support isolated pops during the afternoon.

However, there is growing model support that vort disturbances
coming across the mtns in the zonal flow aloft coupled with the
passage of a weak surface front trough from the NW could result in
an uptick in pops late Sunday and into Sunday night. For now will
carry low chance pops into Sunday night, but later forecast updates
may need increase pops. Overnight lows 70 to 75.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 312 am Saturday...

expect an unsettled weather pattern to start the long term as a S w
crossing new england will propel a surface cold front southeastward
across central early Monday. Based on current timing of the frontal
passage, expect convection to be a little more prominent across the
southeast half of the forecast region compared to the northern
piedmont. Still, with the best upper support will removed from our
region, coverage is expected to be no worse than scattered. Nly
flow behind the front will usher a slightly cooler and more stable
air mass for Tuesday, providing us with a brief respite from the
current stretch of 90+ degrees heat. After highs on Monday in the 90-
95 degree range, highs Tuesday anticipated to be in the neighborhood
of 85-90.

Another S W traversing from the great lakes into new england
Wednesday into Thursday will drive another sfc boundary
southeastward toward central nc. This boundary will serve as a
trigger for scattered convection, mainly across the western piedmont
Wednesday, and areawide Thursday. Again, with the better dynamics
farther north, convective coverage expected to be no more than 30-40
percent. In the wake of this departing S w, mid-upper level heights
will rebound as an upper level high strengthens over the lower oh
valley lower great lakes on Friday. The rising heights will act as a
cap on the atmosphere, limiting convective coverage a bit and warm
up the atmosphere, leading to temperatures a category or two above
normal.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 723 am Friday...

24 hour TAF period: any fog stratus will quickly lift and
dissipate shortly after 12z. Isolated to widely scattered convection
is expected to develop again this afternoon early evening, with the
greatest coverage in the east(krwi and kfay). Storms will quickly
dissipate after sunset with predominatelyVFR conditions
expected overnight.

Outlook: mainly diurnal convection and related sub-vfr conditions
are expected Sunday and Monday. A cooler and more stable airmass
will build in behind a front pushing through late Monday. This will
limit convection to only isolated late day activity Tuesday through
Thursday.

Climate
Max temperature and high-minimum temperature records...

gso:
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 23 100 1986 77 1890
06 24 99 2010 76 1888
-------------------------------------
rdu:
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 23 100 1986 77 1890
06 24 99 2010 76 1888
-------------------------------------
fay:
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 23 102 1981 77 2017
06 24 102 1914 79 2010

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wss mlm
near term... Mlm
cbl short term... Cbl
long term... Wss
aviation... Cbl bsd
climate... Kcp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC15 mi75 minWSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F68°F63%1011.2 hPa
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi75 minWSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F74°F76%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4SE8CalmNE4NE5E3CalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5SW7SW8SW8SW10SW9
G14
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G17
1 day agoCalmN5W4SW4W3CalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW4CalmCalmCalmNE3SW4
2 days agoSW4S4SW3W4SW3CalmCalmN5CalmSW4S6S4SW5CalmCalmSW4SW5SW4SW5W5W4NW5NW6W3

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Sat -- 12:55 AM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:23 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.53.32.82.21.71.10.60.30.41.11.92.6332.621.510.60.30.412

Tide / Current Tables for Puddledock Sand
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Puddledock Sand & Gravel
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Sat -- 12:49 AM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:04 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:23 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.33.12.621.40.70.30.51.11.622.42.62.52.11.61.10.60.10.20.91.72.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.