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FXUS62 KRAH 191753 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 152 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will extend across and offshore the Middle Atlantic through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 920 AM Sunday...

With the morning update, made some minimal changes to hourly temperatures and dewpoints. Radar echoes over the forecast area have decreased significantly in the last hour, and didn't extend the drizzle that was in the forecast through 9am. That being said, think there could still be some light showers across the southern tier of the forecast area during the afternoon, although removed the chance pops from Sampson County. No thunder is in the forecast considering the stable atmosphere. Clouds should be slow to clear today, and didn't make any changes to that part of the forecast either.
Previous discussion follows.

As of 355 AM Sunday...

A positive tilt mid/upr-level trough will move across and offshore the Middle and South Atlantic through tonight. The most prominent shortwave perturbation, evident as a compact cyclone over wrn TN in the 00Z 250 mb upr air chart last evening, will move from the TN Valley this morning to the GA/SC this afternoon. While height falls and forcing for ascent will be maximized along the track of that feature (ie. south of cntl NC), a weaker disturbance now over MD will move south and across VA/NC through 00Z Mon.

At the surface, a cold front now draped from sern NC wwd across n- cntl SC will continue to make steady progress swd and across SC and the Savannah Basin today. Ridging over the Middle Atlantic will follow and extend across NC with associated nely flow.

Widespread low overcast that has developed in the post-frontal, nely low-level flow regime over cntl NC will lift and scatter to partly to variably cloudy from northwest to southeast this afternoon- evening. While the focus for light measurable rain will result over far srn NC this morning, near and north of the aforementioned cold front, the weak disturbance approaching from MD/VA may result in the development of a few very light showers/sprinkles over the ne Piedmont and Coastal Plain this afternoon.

Continued clearing skies this evening-early tonight will result in the development of radiation fog and stratus later tonight-Mon morning.

Temperatures and dewpoints will be 5-10 F lower than Sat on average, with highs mostly 70-75 and lows in the 50s to around 60.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 152 PM Sunday...

High pressure ridging will be in place at mid-levels for our Monday.
High pressure at the surface off the east coast will continue to nose down into the area, resulting in a NE flow once again. We will see some stratocumulus develop for the daytime, but more sunshine is expected as deeper mixing ensues, especially across the Coastal Plain. The airmass will warm some too, but highs should still be about a degree or so below seasonal norms in the upper 70s to low 80s, lowest in the NE Piedmont to northern Coastal Plain of perhaps mid 70s. Clear skies and light winds in the evening and overnight will favor lows a touch below average in the mid to upper 50s, except low to mid 50s in the NE Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain.
Lingering low-level moisture could favor fog development from the Triangle eastward into the Coastal Plain for early Tue morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 341 AM Sunday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Mid-level ridging will largely hold over the eastern US before shifting offshore through Wednesday evening. The next series of upper troughs will then lift through the Great Lakes Thursday and potentially the TN Valley on Friday/Saturday.

Tuesday through Wednesday: By Tuesday, the air mass will start to moderate some as flow turns a bit more ely, and then sely/swly Wednesday into Thursday. However, overall Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry with temperatures warming into the lower to mid 80s.

Thursday through Saturday. Ensembles continue to suggest the potential for periods of rain over this time as upper forcing from the aforementioned upper features move overhead. On Thursday, an upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes. Some mid-level energy associated with this feature may trickle down into our northern locations and promote showers/storms later in the day.
However, the better forcing and low-level moisture transport appears to stay well to our north, and thus as of now will maintain just slight chance to low chance POPs during this time.

From Friday onward, there is a bit better agreement amongst ensembles simulating a potentially potent short wave riding through the TN Valley and eventually over central NC through Saturday. Still a bit far out to get into specifics, but This setup could provide a bit better coverage in showers/storms for our area early this weekend.

There is high probabilities amongst ensembles that temperatures will exceed the mid 80s both Thursday and Friday. The quartile spread widens a bit more over the weekend, likely due to differing solutions wrt to any sfc boundaries. Regardless, temps will likely remain in the 80s this upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

24 hour TAF period: Widespread stratocumulus will continue to lift and scatter out, with all terminals expected to return to VFR conditions by late afternoon. There is high confidence in skies becoming mostly clear during the evening, but with little change in air mass, restrictions are expected to develop after midnight. Have made little change to the inherited TAFs through this part of the forecast. Believe that the greatest coverage of stratus will be at RWI considering the (light) northeast flow, and will go with IFR stratus there. At GSO/RDU, winds will likely go calm, and models are showing a very shallow yet strong inversion, which should favor IFR/LIFR visibilities. Considered going LIFR at INT, but did not see as strong of an inversion signal there. Finally, at FAY, there should be less moisture overall, and have not gone with any restrictions. Fog/stratus should begin to mix out by the middle of Monday morning, with VFR diurnal cumulus forecast for the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook: A repeat of Monday morning's restrictions will be possible Tuesday morning, but this threat should not be as great for Wednesday morning. Thursday and Friday will have the potential for diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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