Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kimberling City, MO
March 19, 2024 6:36 AM CDT (11:36 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:15 AM Sunset 7:25 PM Moonrise 1:14 PM Moonset 3:42 AM |
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 191048 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 548 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- Significant (level 3/4) fire danger today.
- Low chance for light showers Wednesday night through Thursday.
- Next rainmaker late weekend to early next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Surface high pressure is currently passing southwest of the Ozarks, allowing for clear skies and calm winds - the perfect setup for efficient radiational cooling. Lows this morning are expected to dip into the mid-20s for most of the region with cooler spots in low- lying areas out east. A hard freeze is expected overnight tonight, so hopefully you remembered to bring in or cover susceptible plants.
850 mb temperatures are right around the 0C mark early this morning, up from about -8C reported by the 00Z balloon. 850 mb temperatures will continue to rise as the high pressure moves off to the southeast and weak mid- to surface-level troughing moves in behind it with a return to southerly surface flow.
The handing off between the high and low pressures will create a tight pressure gradient over the Ozarks Tuesday, and west-southwest winds are expected to gust up to 35 mph with localized gusts up to 45 mph possible. With moisture slow to return after the departure of the high pressure due to topography, relative humidities will dip to near 30% across the area with eastern counties seeing values in the mid to low 20s. Thankfully, the gustier winds are expected in the west with the higher dewpoints. However, winds may gust near and above humidity values (i.e., 30 mph winds with 30% humidity), which is a rule-of-thumb indicator for fire danger. We are advertising Significant (level 3/4) fire danger in areas with the highest winds (an area roughly Joplin to Nevada to Ash Grove) and lowest dew points (roughly Mountain Grove to Winona).
Besides the wind and fire danger, it will be a gorgeous sunny day with highs in the mid 60s(and wind chills about the same due to warm air advection). Tonight we'll see lows in the low to mid 40s as clear skies dominate for another night. Winds will die down throughout the night as a weak cold front moves through and we switch to light northerly winds.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
There will be a gradient in high temperatures across the region Wednesday as a surface trough digs down into southern MO. Highs along the AR border will near 70 while locations in central MO will reach around 60. Winds will be light. Clouds will begin filtering in as moisture returns and it will be mostly cloudy by evening.
An upper level shortwave will approach from the west Wednesday night and begin ejecting energy into the Ozarks as it passes through, bringing rain chances beginning Wednesday night through the day Thursday. Chances peak near 40% for areas along the OK and AR borders late morning/midday. Rain is expected to be light.
Just as the shortwave clears the area Thursday night, a surface trough digs in from the north and brings low chances (20-30%) for scattered showers to central MO. Both of these events will be light, and with the dry airmass in place, many locations will likely remain dry.
Highs will hang around 60 degrees from midweek through the weekend with lows around 40. A more substantial rainmaker is progged to move through Sunday into Monday with PoPs up to 70-80% areawide. Models differ a bit on timing and strength, so details will need to be worked out as we get closer.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditons through the TAF period with clear skies. Winds west-southwest gusting up to 35 kts and low-level wind shear possible through the morning.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 548 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- Significant (level 3/4) fire danger today.
- Low chance for light showers Wednesday night through Thursday.
- Next rainmaker late weekend to early next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Surface high pressure is currently passing southwest of the Ozarks, allowing for clear skies and calm winds - the perfect setup for efficient radiational cooling. Lows this morning are expected to dip into the mid-20s for most of the region with cooler spots in low- lying areas out east. A hard freeze is expected overnight tonight, so hopefully you remembered to bring in or cover susceptible plants.
850 mb temperatures are right around the 0C mark early this morning, up from about -8C reported by the 00Z balloon. 850 mb temperatures will continue to rise as the high pressure moves off to the southeast and weak mid- to surface-level troughing moves in behind it with a return to southerly surface flow.
The handing off between the high and low pressures will create a tight pressure gradient over the Ozarks Tuesday, and west-southwest winds are expected to gust up to 35 mph with localized gusts up to 45 mph possible. With moisture slow to return after the departure of the high pressure due to topography, relative humidities will dip to near 30% across the area with eastern counties seeing values in the mid to low 20s. Thankfully, the gustier winds are expected in the west with the higher dewpoints. However, winds may gust near and above humidity values (i.e., 30 mph winds with 30% humidity), which is a rule-of-thumb indicator for fire danger. We are advertising Significant (level 3/4) fire danger in areas with the highest winds (an area roughly Joplin to Nevada to Ash Grove) and lowest dew points (roughly Mountain Grove to Winona).
Besides the wind and fire danger, it will be a gorgeous sunny day with highs in the mid 60s(and wind chills about the same due to warm air advection). Tonight we'll see lows in the low to mid 40s as clear skies dominate for another night. Winds will die down throughout the night as a weak cold front moves through and we switch to light northerly winds.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
There will be a gradient in high temperatures across the region Wednesday as a surface trough digs down into southern MO. Highs along the AR border will near 70 while locations in central MO will reach around 60. Winds will be light. Clouds will begin filtering in as moisture returns and it will be mostly cloudy by evening.
An upper level shortwave will approach from the west Wednesday night and begin ejecting energy into the Ozarks as it passes through, bringing rain chances beginning Wednesday night through the day Thursday. Chances peak near 40% for areas along the OK and AR borders late morning/midday. Rain is expected to be light.
Just as the shortwave clears the area Thursday night, a surface trough digs in from the north and brings low chances (20-30%) for scattered showers to central MO. Both of these events will be light, and with the dry airmass in place, many locations will likely remain dry.
Highs will hang around 60 degrees from midweek through the weekend with lows around 40. A more substantial rainmaker is progged to move through Sunday into Monday with PoPs up to 70-80% areawide. Models differ a bit on timing and strength, so details will need to be worked out as we get closer.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditons through the TAF period with clear skies. Winds west-southwest gusting up to 35 kts and low-level wind shear possible through the morning.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KFWB BRANSON WEST MUNI EMERSON FIELD,MO | 4 sm | 21 min | WSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 28°F | 23°F | 80% | 30.15 | |
KBBG BRANSON,MO | 16 sm | 21 min | SW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 16°F | 51% | 30.15 |
Springfield, MO,
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