Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM   Moonset 12:56 PM

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FXUS63 KSGF 020549 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1249 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Generally lower rain chances this afternoon and tonight and increasing on Thursday.

- The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend and early next week with highest chances on Saturday.

- Temperatures will remain above average through at least the next seven days.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor and upper level analysis show upper level low pressure over Montana with a large scale trough extending south of the low into the great basin. Broad southwesterly flow was occuring ahead of the trough from the desert southwest and into our forecast area. Surface analysis has a weak surface boundary draped west to east across southern Missouri. Temperatures were in the low to mid 70s and dew points were in the mid 50s to low 60s. Some southwest to northeast moving showers and thunderstorms were occurring from south central Kansas into northwest Missouri.

Tonight - Thursday: Some upper level energy embedded in the southwest to northeast flow and a northward moving frontal boundary may contribute to some of that scattered convection affecting our west and northwest portion of the CWA late this afternoon into tonight. The majority of the moisture and instability should remain west of our area though and the best convection will remain west of the area.

The large scale upper trough will begin to lift negatively tilted to the northeast on Thursday over the northern plains into the upper Mississippi valley, with a surface front shifting slowly east into the CWA While instability does not look overly impressive over the area, there will be an increase in the moisture along with better jet dynamics and a surface front and boundaries to support more widespread convection(60-85% chance).
The higher pops will be in the west which will limit temperatures in the 70s while the east could see low to mid 80s for highs. QPF amounts will be highly dependent on where the best convective redevelopment in the afternoon can set up, which will generally be along the eastward moving boundary. Highest QPF totals are currently along with US 65 corridor where a half inch to inch and a quarter will be possible. With all of the recent rain late last week into the weekend, this could lead to some additional flooding over the area. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms on Thursday with hail to the size of quarters and 60 mph winds with the stronger convection.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Precipitation chances will continue into Thursday night and most of the activity should end to the east on Friday morning. After a brief dry period Friday into Friday night, the next wave of energy will bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to the area on Saturday and then another shortwave on Sunday with additional chances of rain.

A deeper upper trough will push into the plains on Monday before lifting negatively tilted to the northeast late Monday into Monday night and should bring additional convection to the area Monday night into Tuesday. SPC does have a 15% region highlighted just to our west for the Monday day 6 outlook.

With the nearly daily chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area and the recent heavy rainfall from the past week that continues with elevated river levels, will need to monitor for additional flooding in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR for the night until the convection to the west in Kansas pushes east into Missouri by sunrise Thursday morning. Expect scattered thunderstorms throughout the day with MVFR ceilings.
Heavy rain could reduce visibilities down to 3 to 4 SM at times as well. Expect rain to taper off around Thursday evening.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.

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