Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nash, OK
May 7, 2024 7:16 AM CDT (12:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 5:00 AM Moonset 7:21 PM |
FXUS64 KOUN 071116 AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 616 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
As this morning severe weather exits to the east and the overtaken dryline/Pacific front pushes through, it will be quiet for the remainder of the day. Under sunny afternoon skies, we'll see nearly a repeater of yesterdays slightly warmer than average temperatures although much less humid with a drier air mass in place. It will feel slightly cooler tonight across our northern and western Oklahoma tonight with lows in the 50s.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Wednesday could bring a return of storms and severe weather but would be restricted to our far southeastern CWA A persisting closed upper low will be meandering over the U.S. Northern Plains with a fairly large amplitude positively tilted trough over entire western half of the U.S. ejecting a series of shortwaves eastward across the Central & Southern Plains Regions. Down at the surface, this system will be pushing a surface low and Pacific cold front across our area on Wednesday. Ahead of this frontal passage by sunrise Wednesday, all models in good agreement with strong gulf moisture transport into southeast Oklahoma with up to 70 degree dewpoints creeping back in, perhaps enhanced by a strong southerly low-level jet setting up Tuesday night with the maxima over the eastern half of Oklahoma. Certainly southeast Oklahoma could potentially start rapidly destabilizing by late Wednesday morning with strong (3000 J/kg) of SFC-based CAPE by early afternoon ahead of the surface boundary while deep-layer shear would be strong enough to maintain severe storm organization if they develop. Models generally have the surface front nearly along the I-44 corridor around noontime and pushing to the southeast where the surface low will have settled in. As a result, could see convection breaking out along the front as it pushes into southeast Oklahoma with a potential of all severe hazards. One caveat to storm initiation would inhibition based on the NAM solution and the ability of the surface boundary breaking the cap while the GFS & ECMWF are nearly uncapped prior to the frontal arrival. As a result, will maintain low storm POPs in the grids for southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon hours with a potential of severe storms initiating by early afternoon.
Beyond Wednesday, we'll stay in a dry pattern through much of Saturday as another upper low closes off over the U.S. Southwest which may "wetten" our forecast again by ejecting shortwaves downstream across the Southern Plains starting Saturday night across our western CWA to more widespread for Sunday into early next week.
So far not seeing any strong moisture return so the severe weather risk looks low at this point. As far as temperatures, we'll see a slight cooldown with temperature returning to seasonably average and cooler each night in the 50s widespread across our CWA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Periods of MVFR category are expected through the mid-morning across north-central (patchy fog) and southeast (stratus)
terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for a majority of the valid period. Winds are forecast to turn from west- northwesterly to south-southeasterly through sunset ahead of an approaching upper system. A return of low clouds/MVFR cigs are expected at KDUA (perhaps towards central Oklahoma terminals) by early Wednesday morning.
Safe travels!
Ungar
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 81 63 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 84 57 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 84 65 87 57 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 85 51 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 81 57 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 85 66 86 61 / 0 0 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 616 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
As this morning severe weather exits to the east and the overtaken dryline/Pacific front pushes through, it will be quiet for the remainder of the day. Under sunny afternoon skies, we'll see nearly a repeater of yesterdays slightly warmer than average temperatures although much less humid with a drier air mass in place. It will feel slightly cooler tonight across our northern and western Oklahoma tonight with lows in the 50s.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Wednesday could bring a return of storms and severe weather but would be restricted to our far southeastern CWA A persisting closed upper low will be meandering over the U.S. Northern Plains with a fairly large amplitude positively tilted trough over entire western half of the U.S. ejecting a series of shortwaves eastward across the Central & Southern Plains Regions. Down at the surface, this system will be pushing a surface low and Pacific cold front across our area on Wednesday. Ahead of this frontal passage by sunrise Wednesday, all models in good agreement with strong gulf moisture transport into southeast Oklahoma with up to 70 degree dewpoints creeping back in, perhaps enhanced by a strong southerly low-level jet setting up Tuesday night with the maxima over the eastern half of Oklahoma. Certainly southeast Oklahoma could potentially start rapidly destabilizing by late Wednesday morning with strong (3000 J/kg) of SFC-based CAPE by early afternoon ahead of the surface boundary while deep-layer shear would be strong enough to maintain severe storm organization if they develop. Models generally have the surface front nearly along the I-44 corridor around noontime and pushing to the southeast where the surface low will have settled in. As a result, could see convection breaking out along the front as it pushes into southeast Oklahoma with a potential of all severe hazards. One caveat to storm initiation would inhibition based on the NAM solution and the ability of the surface boundary breaking the cap while the GFS & ECMWF are nearly uncapped prior to the frontal arrival. As a result, will maintain low storm POPs in the grids for southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon hours with a potential of severe storms initiating by early afternoon.
Beyond Wednesday, we'll stay in a dry pattern through much of Saturday as another upper low closes off over the U.S. Southwest which may "wetten" our forecast again by ejecting shortwaves downstream across the Southern Plains starting Saturday night across our western CWA to more widespread for Sunday into early next week.
So far not seeing any strong moisture return so the severe weather risk looks low at this point. As far as temperatures, we'll see a slight cooldown with temperature returning to seasonably average and cooler each night in the 50s widespread across our CWA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Periods of MVFR category are expected through the mid-morning across north-central (patchy fog) and southeast (stratus)
terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for a majority of the valid period. Winds are forecast to turn from west- northwesterly to south-southeasterly through sunset ahead of an approaching upper system. A return of low clouds/MVFR cigs are expected at KDUA (perhaps towards central Oklahoma terminals) by early Wednesday morning.
Safe travels!
Ungar
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 81 63 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 84 57 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 84 65 87 57 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 85 51 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 81 57 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 85 66 86 61 / 0 0 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KWDG ENID WOODRING RGNL,OK | 21 sm | 26 min | W 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 45°F | 76% | 29.60 | |
| KEND VANCE AFB,OK | 22 sm | 21 min | W 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 50°F | 41°F | 71% | 29.59 |
Vance AFB, OK,
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