Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nash, OK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:24PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:59 PM CST (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:34PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nash, OK
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location: 36.66, -97.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Norman, OK
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Fxus64 koun 152150
afdoun
area forecast discussion
national weather service norman ok
issued by national weather service fort worth tx
350 pm cst Thu nov 15 2018

Discussion
After the recent stretch of cold weather, temperatures have
rebounded nicely today with mid and upper 60s readings prevailing
across most of the region. Surface observations indicate that a
weak reinforcing cold front has intruded into the the oklahoma
panhandle and the far northwestern portions of the CWA at this
hour accompanied by a modest northwest wind shift. This feature
will continue to sag southward this evening and overnight, and
should stall out in the vicinity of the red river towards daybreak
on Friday.

This weak frontal boundary offers up the first conundrum of the
forecast. The NAM aggressively saturates the low-levels in the
extremely shallow post-frontal airmass, and also depicts a notable
hydrolapse immediately off the surface. Not surprisingly, the sref
(nam-based ensemble) is outputting some low probabilities of
mist fog tonight behind this boundary. Based on the multi-model
consensus for a much less aggressively saturating airmass behind
this front, we've opted to forgo an explicit mention of fog in the
worded forecast, but trends will be monitored this evening. If
some patchy fog does develop, portions of northern oklahoma will
be falling to near freezing by Friday morning. Due to the warm
temperatures today, any impacts due to patchy freezing fog would
be minimal.

Southerly winds should return through the day on Friday, allowing
temperatures to warm towards 60 across the north and near 70 near
the red river. This relative warmth will be short-lived, however,
as another more potent cold front drops south into the region
Friday night and into Saturday. The NAM remains the most
aggressive with the forward progression of this next boundary.

Because of its higher low-level resolution and typically superior
performance compared to other nwp guidance regarding when it comes
to handling these shallow cp boundaries, we've begun to blend
this solution into the forecast for the Friday night-Saturday
period. As a result, we'll show the initial wind shift move into
the northwestern CWA by early Saturday morning, progressing all
the way to the red river by late in the afternoon early evening.

With this in mind, temperatures will remain steady or even slowly
fall north of i-40 44 on Saturday. We've dropped the high
temperatures north of i-40 44 into the upper 30s lower 40s. It's
entirely possible we're still not quite fast enough with the
front, which would mean the high temperatures in the upper
50s near 60 are still too high.

The initial post-frontal airmass will slowly saturate as the cold
slab drives southward across oklahoma. Saturated depths up to just
under 1 km are a bit too shallow to warrant any chances to
measurable precipitation through Saturday evening, but some
drizzle may develop during the afternoon evening immediately
behind the front. As the front encounters somewhat deeper
moisture, some light showers may develop Saturday night and into
Sunday morning, mainly east of i-44 i-35. Rain chances appear
pretty low (less than 20-30%). With strong cold advection
continuing, the low-levels will dry, gradually reducing the
chances for showers by daybreak on Sunday. We'll need to keep a
close eye on temperature trends, however, as there may be a brief
opportunity very late Saturday night for some patchy freezing
drizzle as surface temperatures fall below freezing.

Rather benign weather is expected during the first half of next
week with moderating temperatures. Another disturbance will track
into texas during the middle of next week, but run-to-run model
consistency leaves a lot to be desired. Given recent model
trends and high degree of uncertainty at this juncture, we've
opted to hang onto some low pops south of i-40 on Wednesday and
Wednesday night, but if model trends continue, we may be able to
drop precipitation chances entirely leading up to the thanksgiving
holiday.

Carlaw

Preliminary point temps pops
Oklahoma city ok 36 63 40 54 0 0 0 10
hobart ok 36 63 39 52 0 0 0 10
wichita falls tx 38 66 41 62 0 0 0 10
gage ok 30 60 36 40 0 0 0 10
ponca city ok 32 59 35 48 0 0 0 10
durant ok 40 67 42 65 0 0 0 0

Oun watches warnings advisories
Ok... None.

Tx... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Enid, Enid Woodring Regional Airport, OK21 mi74 minWSW 810.00 miClear68°F39°F35%1014.9 hPa
Vance Air Force Base / Enid, OK22 mi2.1 hrsSW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds65°F37°F36%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from WDG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--E6E6E6E7SE6S3S5S4S4S6S4S3S4S3S3S10S10S10S8SW10SW10W8SW8
1 day agoNW4SW3CalmSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE4SE4E5S3CalmCalmSE3
2 days agoN20
G25
--N16
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N11
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N10N8N10N11N11N10N10N10NW7NW10NW10--N6N7N5NW5NW5NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Norman, OK (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vance AFB, OK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.