Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Puxico, MO
March 18, 2024 8:49 PM CDT (01:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 7:13 PM Moonrise 11:58 AM Moonset 2:43 AM |
Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY
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FXUS63 KPAH 182239 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 539 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A widespread hard freeze is expected tonight. Tender early season vegetation will be damaged or killed.
- Strong southwest winds and continued low humidity will create an elevated fire danger Tuesday.
- Still lots of uncertainty in the details for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be near normal and any rain should be light.
- Our next significant storm system will likely arrive early next week. Heavy rain and winds seem like the main concerns at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Gusty northwest winds will subside quickly with sunset this evening, and with dewpoints in the teens, temperatures will plummet quickly. Lows are expected to drop well into the 20s, with much of the region seeing lower to middle 20s which would create a hard freeze. Southwest winds will attempt to develop before daybreak over the northern half of the Quad State which could lead to some warming before sunrise, so the low temperature is likely to occur in the early overnight hours. We used the 25th percentile of all guidance for the low temperature forecast tonight.
As low pressure descends into the Great Lakes region, the pressure gradient will tighten quickly across the Quad State on Tuesday. In response, southwest winds will increase quickly in the morning and by midday will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 35 mph. Concern for a Wind Advisory has decreased significantly as it appears that lower mixing depth will hold down the gust potential sufficiently to prevent gusts over 40 mph. However, these strong winds along with very dry air will create an elevated fire danger which will be discussed further in the Fire Weather section. We plan to issue a Special Weather Statement to discuss the hard freeze tonight and the gusty winds and fire danger for tomorrow.
A weak frontal boundary will move south through the region Tuesday night, allowing high pressure to nose southward into the region. Despite the high pressure, temperatures Wednesday will climb above normal ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s.
More dry air will eventually filter over the Evansville Tri State and that will result in some more sub-freezing low temperatures. At least for now this should be a brief, light freeze.
For Wednesday night through Friday, the medium range guidance continues to struggle handling a southern stream short wave trough as it moves from the southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday into Friday. The general consensus is for it to be squashed by northwest flow in the northern stream limiting any rainfall over the Quad State. The NBM still has PoPs mainly across the south Thursday and then over much of the region Thursday night into Friday. The QPF is very light which certainly makes sense.
Surface high pressure should keep the region dry Saturday with near to slightly above normal temperatures. For Sunday into Monday, guidance is in agreement in troughing in the west and ridging in the west. This will lead to southwest flow aloft over the Quad State with increasing southerly flow at the surface.
Eventually a portion of the trough will lift out and push a front through the Quad State along with a good chance of showers. At this time, it looks like Sunday will be dry and then PoPs ramp up from the west Sunday night into Monday. Moisture return looks to be limited, so thunderstorms are not currently forecast. However, heavy rainfall is a possibility, along with strong southerly winds.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 539 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions through Tuesday. Light west winds tonight will become SSW 15 to 25 kts on average starting around 14-15z Tuesday and continue throughout the afternoon. In the very near term, clouds with bases 4-5k/ft east of a KMVN-KEHR-KBWG line will shift off to the east through early evening.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Strong southwest winds are expected on Tuesday. Sustained winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts 20-35 mph possible. Mixing is likely to be more efficient than advertised and that would lead to warmer temperatures and lower humidity. To that end we used the NBM 10th percentile for dewpoints and the 75th percentile for high temperatures. That brought the relative humidity down into the 25-30% over most of the region. The Mark Twain National Forest may drop a bit lower, but should have the weakest winds.
After collaborating with neighboring offices and consulting some of our land management partners we decided to just issue a Special Weather Statement advertising an elevated fire danger, as winds, humidity and fuels will all be marginally near critical thresholds. Fuels are definitely drying out, but with temperatures struggling to reach 60, it will be difficult to get fires going without help. However, any fires that do get going Tuesday will spread quickly and be difficult to control.
The dry air will likely remain over the region until late this coming weekend, but winds will not be that strong, so the overall fire danger through the end of the week should be rather limited.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 539 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A widespread hard freeze is expected tonight. Tender early season vegetation will be damaged or killed.
- Strong southwest winds and continued low humidity will create an elevated fire danger Tuesday.
- Still lots of uncertainty in the details for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be near normal and any rain should be light.
- Our next significant storm system will likely arrive early next week. Heavy rain and winds seem like the main concerns at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Gusty northwest winds will subside quickly with sunset this evening, and with dewpoints in the teens, temperatures will plummet quickly. Lows are expected to drop well into the 20s, with much of the region seeing lower to middle 20s which would create a hard freeze. Southwest winds will attempt to develop before daybreak over the northern half of the Quad State which could lead to some warming before sunrise, so the low temperature is likely to occur in the early overnight hours. We used the 25th percentile of all guidance for the low temperature forecast tonight.
As low pressure descends into the Great Lakes region, the pressure gradient will tighten quickly across the Quad State on Tuesday. In response, southwest winds will increase quickly in the morning and by midday will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 35 mph. Concern for a Wind Advisory has decreased significantly as it appears that lower mixing depth will hold down the gust potential sufficiently to prevent gusts over 40 mph. However, these strong winds along with very dry air will create an elevated fire danger which will be discussed further in the Fire Weather section. We plan to issue a Special Weather Statement to discuss the hard freeze tonight and the gusty winds and fire danger for tomorrow.
A weak frontal boundary will move south through the region Tuesday night, allowing high pressure to nose southward into the region. Despite the high pressure, temperatures Wednesday will climb above normal ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s.
More dry air will eventually filter over the Evansville Tri State and that will result in some more sub-freezing low temperatures. At least for now this should be a brief, light freeze.
For Wednesday night through Friday, the medium range guidance continues to struggle handling a southern stream short wave trough as it moves from the southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday into Friday. The general consensus is for it to be squashed by northwest flow in the northern stream limiting any rainfall over the Quad State. The NBM still has PoPs mainly across the south Thursday and then over much of the region Thursday night into Friday. The QPF is very light which certainly makes sense.
Surface high pressure should keep the region dry Saturday with near to slightly above normal temperatures. For Sunday into Monday, guidance is in agreement in troughing in the west and ridging in the west. This will lead to southwest flow aloft over the Quad State with increasing southerly flow at the surface.
Eventually a portion of the trough will lift out and push a front through the Quad State along with a good chance of showers. At this time, it looks like Sunday will be dry and then PoPs ramp up from the west Sunday night into Monday. Moisture return looks to be limited, so thunderstorms are not currently forecast. However, heavy rainfall is a possibility, along with strong southerly winds.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 539 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions through Tuesday. Light west winds tonight will become SSW 15 to 25 kts on average starting around 14-15z Tuesday and continue throughout the afternoon. In the very near term, clouds with bases 4-5k/ft east of a KMVN-KEHR-KBWG line will shift off to the east through early evening.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Strong southwest winds are expected on Tuesday. Sustained winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts 20-35 mph possible. Mixing is likely to be more efficient than advertised and that would lead to warmer temperatures and lower humidity. To that end we used the NBM 10th percentile for dewpoints and the 75th percentile for high temperatures. That brought the relative humidity down into the 25-30% over most of the region. The Mark Twain National Forest may drop a bit lower, but should have the weakest winds.
After collaborating with neighboring offices and consulting some of our land management partners we decided to just issue a Special Weather Statement advertising an elevated fire danger, as winds, humidity and fuels will all be marginally near critical thresholds. Fuels are definitely drying out, but with temperatures struggling to reach 60, it will be difficult to get fires going without help. However, any fires that do get going Tuesday will spread quickly and be difficult to control.
The dry air will likely remain over the region until late this coming weekend, but winds will not be that strong, so the overall fire danger through the end of the week should be rather limited.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KPOF POPLAR BLUFF MUNI,MO | 20 sm | 56 min | NW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 39°F | 18°F | 41% | 30.24 |
Paducah, KY,
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