Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Puxico, MO
May 7, 2024 9:10 AM CDT (14:10 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 4:27 AM Moonset 6:48 PM |
FXUS63 KPAH 070711 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 211 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday night. Strong to severe storms are possible early this morning and may fire up again later in the day and evening.
- A more significant and widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak is expected Wednesday-Wednesday night.
- After the big storm system's passage, a markedly cooler and drier air mass will spread over the region, returning more Spring-like temperatures with highs generally in the 70s and refreshingly lower humidity for the week's end.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Isentropic upglide shower initiation in our northeast is ongoing at this writing, while a strong-severe convective line approaches from the west. Models all drive this line toward us thru the morning, generally waning in intensity with time, but as we evolve with an uptick in lapse rates and bulk shear, particularly in our western counties, there may be enough to continue fueling for a strong-severe threat over western ptns of the FA past daybreak.
Afterwards, there could be a general lull in activity until diurnal destabilization fires additional convective growth this afternoon. The models all suggest the prime axis of this development will be across the Ohio Valley, along/ahead of the approaching cold front, with increasing pops across our north and east. As a result, the day1 outlook now dips the ENH risk into a few of our southwest IN/northwest KY counties for the all hazards afternoon/evening severe risk. The nearing presence of the upper jet max increases bulk shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates best in this region to heighten severe concerns.
After the aforementioned wave plays out, the later Tuesday night lull period is still expected, as the atmosphere continues explosive growth to 40-50+ kts bulk shear as lapse rates balloon to 8C by Wednesday afternoon/evening. All model data indicates a widespread all hazards severe event that could last into the better part of the night. Caution, warm sector convective initiation could begin the severe threat over portions of the region as early as mid-late Wednesday morning, as we warm sector again; but the more widespread/significant severe expectation remains for the broader system approach/passage Wednesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday night.
In addition to the anticipated all hazards severe, a threat of localized flooding Tue-Wed exists over the course of time with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible. And non thunderstorm gradient winds are still forecast with upwards to 30-35 mph gust potential, generally in the afternoons.
The parent long wave trof driving this entire system rotates across the FA thereafter, transitioning our almost summer-like warmth/humidity to a significantly cooler/drier air mass by week's end. We'll see highs in the 80s drop thru the 70s (some upper 60s still possible north) while dew points plummet from values near 70 at their peak, thru the 50s to the 40s by Friday into the weekend. While this period will be drier, we won't necessarily be devoid of pops while the long wave trof maintains its heart over the Ohio Valley, with mainly daytime destabilization showers retained in some form/fashion until its passage. Note, the 6-10 day outlook continues with a projection of below normal temperatures as well.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
VFR CIGS will lower to/thru MVFR as the convective line approaches this morning. Accompanying threat of TSRA will drop VSBYS into restricted categories as well. A mid morning-early afternoon lull in the by then waning activity will offer the next chance for improvement to VFR, which may be temporary as diurnal destabiliation heightens storm chances again this afternoon. Further deterioration in CIGS/VSBYS to restricted categories are forecast then. In additiona, increasingly gusty south winds outside of thunderstorms will see peak gusts approach 30 kts this afternoon.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 211 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday night. Strong to severe storms are possible early this morning and may fire up again later in the day and evening.
- A more significant and widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak is expected Wednesday-Wednesday night.
- After the big storm system's passage, a markedly cooler and drier air mass will spread over the region, returning more Spring-like temperatures with highs generally in the 70s and refreshingly lower humidity for the week's end.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Isentropic upglide shower initiation in our northeast is ongoing at this writing, while a strong-severe convective line approaches from the west. Models all drive this line toward us thru the morning, generally waning in intensity with time, but as we evolve with an uptick in lapse rates and bulk shear, particularly in our western counties, there may be enough to continue fueling for a strong-severe threat over western ptns of the FA past daybreak.
Afterwards, there could be a general lull in activity until diurnal destabilization fires additional convective growth this afternoon. The models all suggest the prime axis of this development will be across the Ohio Valley, along/ahead of the approaching cold front, with increasing pops across our north and east. As a result, the day1 outlook now dips the ENH risk into a few of our southwest IN/northwest KY counties for the all hazards afternoon/evening severe risk. The nearing presence of the upper jet max increases bulk shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates best in this region to heighten severe concerns.
After the aforementioned wave plays out, the later Tuesday night lull period is still expected, as the atmosphere continues explosive growth to 40-50+ kts bulk shear as lapse rates balloon to 8C by Wednesday afternoon/evening. All model data indicates a widespread all hazards severe event that could last into the better part of the night. Caution, warm sector convective initiation could begin the severe threat over portions of the region as early as mid-late Wednesday morning, as we warm sector again; but the more widespread/significant severe expectation remains for the broader system approach/passage Wednesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday night.
In addition to the anticipated all hazards severe, a threat of localized flooding Tue-Wed exists over the course of time with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible. And non thunderstorm gradient winds are still forecast with upwards to 30-35 mph gust potential, generally in the afternoons.
The parent long wave trof driving this entire system rotates across the FA thereafter, transitioning our almost summer-like warmth/humidity to a significantly cooler/drier air mass by week's end. We'll see highs in the 80s drop thru the 70s (some upper 60s still possible north) while dew points plummet from values near 70 at their peak, thru the 50s to the 40s by Friday into the weekend. While this period will be drier, we won't necessarily be devoid of pops while the long wave trof maintains its heart over the Ohio Valley, with mainly daytime destabilization showers retained in some form/fashion until its passage. Note, the 6-10 day outlook continues with a projection of below normal temperatures as well.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
VFR CIGS will lower to/thru MVFR as the convective line approaches this morning. Accompanying threat of TSRA will drop VSBYS into restricted categories as well. A mid morning-early afternoon lull in the by then waning activity will offer the next chance for improvement to VFR, which may be temporary as diurnal destabiliation heightens storm chances again this afternoon. Further deterioration in CIGS/VSBYS to restricted categories are forecast then. In additiona, increasingly gusty south winds outside of thunderstorms will see peak gusts approach 30 kts this afternoon.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPOF POPLAR BLUFF MUNI,MO | 20 sm | 17 min | S 13 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.66 |
Paducah, KY,
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