Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 11:14 PM   Moonset 7:26 AM

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FXUS61 KRNK 270702 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 302 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will keep clouds and occasional light rain showers in the region through mid morning. Clouds lift but stick around for the remainder of the day, which will be dry and relatively warm. Even warmer temperatures develop beginning Sunday and occurring most of the week. Rain chances return by Tuesday with a frontal passage. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon hours, each day thereafter for the remainder of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Light showers/sprinkles possible through mid morning.

2. Clouds remain but we warm up into the 60s and 70s today

Lift associated with a warm front was bringing showers to the western NC mountains, the Greenbrier Valley, and the Alleghany Highlands this morning. Not expecting very much liquid out of this, and the front should lift generally out of the area by mid morning. Low stratus and some patchy fog/drizzle this morning will improve around then as well, with slightly gusty SW winds.

Temperatures today should be in the low to upper 60s for the mountains, and the upper 60s to low 70s for the Piedmont. There is some variability possible, and a lot will depend on how fast winds turn southerly and rain moves out. The remainder of the day will be cloudy however, but could see parts of the Piedmont reaching the mid 70s depending on how much WAA can work in from the southwest.

Tonight, high pressure builds over the area, but southerly winds and positive vorticity advection aloft will keep clouds around for most of the overnight. Lows should be in the 50s.

Confidence is high in the near term forecast, but moderate for highs today.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 115 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Points:

1. Dry Sunday and Monday and trending warmer.
2. Showers and some storms possible Tuesday/Tuesday night 3. Slightly cooler Tuesday but still above normal

A look at the 26 April 12Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows a ridge over the eastern US on Sunday. A shortwave trough over the upper Mississippi Valley is expected to head eastward and move through the crest of ridge, over our region, by Tuesday. At the surface, on Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will extend from the coast of the Carolinas northeast to the Canadian Maritimes while low pressure will be centered over the Central Plains states. This same low is expected to move into the Great Lakes region on Monday, and by Tuesday be over Ontario with a cold front moving towards and then across our area.

Output from the 26 Apr 12Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures trending milder Sunday through Tuesday.
Values on Monday may touch +14C to +16C, which would be within the 90 to 99 percentile of the thirty year climatology. On Tuesday, numbers decrease a bit from the Monday values, but will still be on the warm side of normal. Precipitable Water values hover around the 1.00 inch mark Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday, values increase to closer to 1.25 inches for eastern parts of the region.

The above reflects a dry forecast still for Sunday into Monday, but with increasing temperatures. On Tuesday, precipitation chances increase from west to east with the passage of the shortwave trough. Forecast lifted indices and CAPE values suggest enough instability for mention of thunderstorms along with the showers.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Points:

1. Daily chances of isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms 2. Friday will have the greatest coverage 3. Temperatures above normal through the period

A look at the 26 April 12Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows flow aloft trending to zonal by Thursday after the departure of a shortwave trough on Wednesday.
By Friday, another trough within the mean westerly flow is expected to cross our area. At the surface, on Wednesday, a weak trough will still be over eastern portions of the area, on the north side of high pressure centered east of the coast of the Carolinas. Low pressure and associated cold front will bisect the center of the country. Thursday into Friday, the Central US low/cold front will make progress eastward, crossing, or simply reaching, our region early Friday.

Output from the 26 Apr 12Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures on the warm side of normal through the period. A few spots may reach numbers within the 90 to 97.5 percentile range of the thirty-year climatology. Precipitable water values on Wednesday are down a bit from values on Tuesday with 0.75 to 1.00 inch common across the area. These values hold fast through Thursday, but increase to closer to 1.00 to 1.25 inches by Friday.

The above reflects a forecast with frequent bouts of showers and storms from increasing moisture in advance of an approaching trough.
Of the three days, Wednesday may be the least active with Friday the most active. Temperatures will be on the warm side of normal.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

A warm front was nearing this morning and some light showers were beginning to develop, mainly over the western NC mountains and the Alleghany Highlands. The chance for -SHRA or at least VCSH increases for most of the TAF sites from now until about 13-15Z, after which ceilings improve as the front moves away.
It appears that LIFR/MVFR ceilings will a feature this morning before this occurs.

Winds will shift more southerly by 15Z, helping low clouds to scatter and lift, making for generally BKN to OVC, mostly VFR ceilings through the remainder of the day. Winds may be gusty to about 20 kts this afternoon. Overnight into Sunday morning expect mostly mid and high clouds and light winds.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Sunday and Monday should be mainly VFR. Winds turn more southerly Sunday and westerly Monday through Tuesday morning. NW winds will accompany a cold front crossing the area with -TSRA areawide and MVFR or lower ceilings. Widely scattered -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible again Wednesday afternoon.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

Falling Creek entrance
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Sat -- 01:15 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:25 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:25 PM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Petersburg
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Sat -- 01:23 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:33 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:21 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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