Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Rustburg, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:43PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 6:20 AM EDT (10:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:56AMMoonset 10:40PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rustburg, VA
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location: 37.18, -79.05     debug

Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 270745
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
345 am edt Tue jun 27 2017

An upper-level disturbance moving across the area today will produce
partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated light showers. The
passage of the upper disturbance will provide a reinforcing shot of
unseasonably cool, dry and pleasant temperatures tonight through
Wednesday. Temperatures and humidity levels then begin to rise with
continued dry weather on Thursday. Conditions then turn more
unsettled Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 345 am edt Tuesday...

skies early this morning are mostly clear to partly cloudy, with
scattered mid-level cloudiness affecting areas along and west of i-
81. These clouds lie ahead of a cold front in association with a
reinforcing shot of cooler, drier cp air across the upper midwest.

Broad 500 mb longwave troughing cyclonic flow in place across much
of the eastern two-thirds of CONUS this morning. Two shortwave
disturbances were evident in morning water vapor imagery: the
stronger shortwave over northeastern oh with the weaker feature over
southwestern in.

For today... Axis of broad longwave trough progresses across the
forecast area through the first half of the day. Shortwave trough
now over in should progress eastward across WV into the va piedmont
by mid-afternoon. Daytime heating may be slowed to some extent by
increased mid-level cloudiness, but expect some cumulus to develop
by mid late morning into the afternoon with progged weak
instability. That should be enough to generate isolated to scattered
showers along the cold front. Based on bufkit forecast soundings off
the nam, rap and GFS which all depict a dry and well-mixed sub-cloud
air mass, it's questionable if rain will even reach the ground.

Could see several CU today generate a good deal of virga, but did
keep QPF less than 0.03" today. Skies should be partly to mostly
cloudy through early afternoon, with greater clearing associated
with building surface ridge behind the frontal zone. Should be
somewhat breezy as well with northwest gusts as high as 25 mph
especially during the afternoon when the boundary layer mixes out.

Highs today remain unseasonably cool but refreshing given late-june,
which range from the mid 60s to lower 70s along and west of the blue
ridge to the mid and upper 70s in the va nc piedmont and foothills

For tonight... Cold, dry advection regime as broad high pressure area
now over the upper midwest builds southeastward, becoming centered
over the forecast area by early Wednesday morning. Any cloudiness
erodes quickly and many areas should go clear by sunset. Questions
for tonight pertain to how quickly do northwesterly winds ease and
on fog development. It seems likely per 00z nwp suite that there
should be enough of a gradient to permit slower radiational cooling,
but especially around after midnight, winds should drop off and
temperatures stand to plummet pretty quickly given the dry air mass
and 850 mb temps around +8 to +10c. I'm not as confident on the
potential for radiation fog development for the overnight as we'll
be lowering dewpoints for a good part of the night; areas that do
get rainfall do stand a better chance, though. All in all, a
comfortable night with lows some 7-10 degrees colder than late-june
climo values, running from the mid 40s to the lower mid 50s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 345 am edt Tuesday...

high pressure centered over west virginia Wednesday morning will
slide east Wednesday afternoon and push into the atlantic ocean
Thursday. A northwest to west flow aloft behind the exiting
trough will advective cooler air into our region Wednesday. High
temperatures Wednesday afternoon will range from the lower 70s in
the mountains to the lower 80s in the piedmont.

The transition to higher humidity levels and warmer temperatures
begins Wednesday night into Thursday as higher low level theta-e air
lifts north into our area as a deepening west to southwest flow
arrives. Low temperatures Wednesday night will vary from the mid 50s
in the mountains to the lower 60s in the southeast.

A few showers or thunderstorms may be possible Thursday afternoon
across southwest portions of the forecast area with the nose of a
low level theta-e ridge, increasing pwats and differiental mountain
heating. Do not cancel your outdoor plans because of storms will be
quite limited. Highs Thursday will be a couple of degrees warmer
than Wednesday with readings from the mid 70s in the mountains to
the mid 80s in the piedmont. Under clear to partly cloudy conditions
Thursday night, low temperatures will generally be from the the
upper 50s in the mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 345 am edt Tuesday...

a return to weather conditions more typical for summer are expected
during the long term period, as the long range models show good
agreement transitioning from an upper level zonal flow early in the
period to an upper trof forming somewhere around the great lakes and
extending south into the eastern u.S. By late in the weekend into

This will result in increasing temperatures and humidity, as well as
an increase in storm chances. An upper level disturbance moving out
of the western gulf of mexico into eastern va on Friday Friday night
will help lead a surge in higher pwat air our area. This higher
moisture combined with a series of upper level disturbances... With
the usual differences in timing shown in the long range
models... Will help generate scattered showers and storms each day
during the long term period, especially during the peak heating in
the afternoon and early evening hours. With increasing capes, but
low shear through the period,a few pulse severe storms and locally
heavy rain are possible.

Warmest temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday as 850mb
forecast temps approach +20c. This may generate heat index values in
the low to mid 90s in the east.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 147 am edt Tuesday...

vfr through the TAF period. Expect a greater coverage in sct to
ovcVFR mid-level cloudiness from west to east through 12z with
moisture on the increase ahead of a mid-level disturbance now
making its way across the eastern great lakes. Given how dry
today was across the region, prospect for radiation fog at the
tafs is very low - the best chance may be at danville where
slightly higher surface moisture exists, though confidence is
too low to mention in the TAF at this point. Should see winds
light westerly to calm.

For Tuesday, aforementioned mid-level disturbance moves east-
southeast across the airspace. Expect mid-level clouds
persisting until mid-afternoon with a few cumulus developing
underneath these. Some showers or sprinkles possible through the
first half of the day, but well-mixed boundary layer progged by
most model guidance suggests that visibilities in showers
likely > 6 sm. Winds west 4-8 kts with gusts to 17kts. Expect
clearing to occur by late afternoon and into the evening hours
with high pressure ridge building into the region. Though winds
should also gradually abate, there still should be enough of a
northwesterly wind between 00-06z to limit any fog development
to after 06z Wednesday.

Extended aviation discussion...

expectVFR conditions with a limited potential for ifr to lifr
overnight radiation fog after 06z Wednesday. Confidence in
development currently low but a better chance of occurrence if
wetting rain affects any of the airports Tuesday.

Vfr conditions then anticipated until Friday, with potential for
overnight ifr to lifr radiation fog Wednesday and Thursday

Friday into Saturday, the potential for sub-vfr conditions
increase as showers and storms become more numerous. Saturday
appears to feature a greater coverage of showers and storms
associated with a cold frontal passage. Likewise, an increase
in the boundary layer moisture will also lend itself to better
chances of late night early morning patchy fog.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Al
near term... Al
short term... Kk
long term... Kk ph
aviation... Al ds

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lynchburg, Lynchburg Regional Airport, VA14 mi27 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F54°F90%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from LYH (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm456W104SW4SW7
1 day agoCalmCalm3N3N3N5W5W7SW7SW6SW5CalmW5W3CalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
2 days agoSW4S74W8W8

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
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Tue -- 01:58 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:40 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Tue -- 02:06 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:05 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:47 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.