Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rustburg, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:36 PM EDT (20:36 UTC) Moonrise 11:06PMMoonset 8:10AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rustburg, VA
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location: 37.18, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 221914
afdrnk
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
314 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure to our east will continue to shift eastward
through tonight. Very warm and more humid conditions will then
begin to settle in for Thursday and last through the weekend.

A disturbance passing to our north may produce a greater
coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. After
Thursday, the threat for precipitation becomes more limited
until later on Sunday.

Near term through Thursday
As of 311 pm edt Wednesday...

high pressure is positioned just to our east over eastern va,
with a wedge boundary extending along its southwestern extent
marked by continued overcast stratus from part of the nrv
through the mountains and foothills of nc. On the western
periphery of this cloudiness, some deeper cumulus is apparent in
late-afternoon visible imagery in an weak sfc-based instability
axis. Possible that a few showers may pop across smyth and
tazewell county through sunset, as indicated by one or two
models, but likely nothing worse than that. While some thinning
of the current overcast clouds appears possible it will be a
short- lived thinning if that across these areas as href, which
has performed well in capturing the current cloud deck,
indicates this cloudiness will only fill back in for the
overnight. A few light showers or sprinkles could fall from this
deck, but coverage here too pretty limited. Did note the 12z gfs
is quite wet in this cloud deck but view this as an outlier,
having a likely erroneously too strong vort MAX wringing out too
much precip. As high pressure shifts off the coast tonight, it
will begin to turn surface winds to the south and increase low-
level moisture and dewpoints by Thursday morning areawide.

Better chances for this low-cloud deck to erode by mid-morning
Thursday, in what will begin the first of a few days of very
warm temperatures and humidity levels also on the rise. This
warm and increasingly more humid air mass will allow for at
least moderately high convective instability to result by the
afternoon, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the
southern blue ridge into southside. Forecast deep-layer wind
shear values are around 25-30 kts across the southern half of
the forecast area, generally supporting pulse type thunderstorms
for areas south of route 460.

Where things could get more interesting and bear watching is
north of route 460 and especially north of i-64. This area is on
the southern end of the stronger belt of 700-500 mb flow likely
to traverse northern va into the northern mid- atlantic region.

Deep-layer shear values north of route 460 get to the level at
which there's a greater potential for more organized and
persistent updrafts, with moderately large instability values
(1000-2000 j kg of surface-based cape). Convective permitting
models show a forward- propagating MCS pushing across southern
pa northern WV into northern va and md tomorrow afternoon, and
a few models generate thunderstorms on the trailing edge of that
feature roughly from charleston, WV eastward to the farmville,
va area on northward. If that materializes as some models
suggest it will, a few of those storms in that corridor would
have potential to become strong to severe - especially if storms
can get firing early. Straight hodograph profiles with no
significant low-level curvature support gusty to perhaps
localized damaging winds in the strongest of storms as the main
threat, with hail and heavy rainfall as additional convective
threats. Models currently are quite diverse in when storms may
develop - as early as 2 pm or as late as 10 pm, and the later
storms develop the less likely storms reach severe levels. So
still some uncertainty and details on the mesoscale that need to
bear themselves out, but think the potential is certainly there
and will continue to message in the hwo. Spc's convective
outlook for the Thursday period captures the slight risk area
into northern virginia which currently seems quite reasonable,
with a marginal risk further south from there into southeast wv
into areas north of route 460.

Highs should have no trouble reaching the 80s and a few lower
90s possible in the piedmont and at roanoke; with escalating
heat indices in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Forecast confidence is overall moderate, with lower to moderate
confidence on thunderstorm timing and severity of storms north
of route 460 Thursday.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
As of 229 pm edt Wednesday...

the upper ridge will flatten a bit and allow a frontal boundary to
backdoor its way into the region Thursday night. Expect some
vigorous convection will slide into the region along the boundary
but indications are that the convective activity will be decaying as
it enters the region. Thus, expect the best chance for storms will
reside mainly from western greenbrier with some extent into the
alleghany highlands. While the storms are expected to be weakening
believe there will still be a marginal severe threat as they enter
with the front sagging down from the north around midnight. As the
front settles down across the area expect upslope flow into the
mountains to keep some showers lingering west of the blue ridge into
Friday.

Expect most of the region will remain dry on Friday except for
locations well west of the blue ridge where destabilization and flow
into the mountains will help generate some additional showers and
thunderstorms mainly from southeast WV into the mountain empire of
virginia, before dissipating Friday night as high pressure wedges in
from the northeast. Another frontal boundary will displace the wedge
as it moves across the region Saturday and Saturday night along with
associated showers and thunderstorms. Given summery nature of the
pattern with high 500mb heights, lack of significant dynamics and
warm air in the mid levels stifling updrafts expect a low threat for
severe storms into the weekend, but good instability in the juicy
airmass will likely generate a few storms worth keeping a close eye
on.

Expect a warming trend with temperatures well above normal making
for hot and humid conditions into the weekend.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
As of 229 pm edt Wednesday...

waxing and waning of the eastern upper ridge will allow energy
sliding along surface fronts to periodically affect the appalachians
and central mid atlantic region through the first part of next week,
while keeping us locked in to temperatures well above normal.

Outside of scattered diurnal convection, there may be a chance for
enhanced thunderstorm activity with an upstream MCS developing late
Sunday Sunday night. Thereafter, uncertainties in handling of the
upper ridge into next week make for low confidence in identifying
any specific potential periods of concern for severe weather. Will
have to monitor this closely over the next several days to see
exactly what degree of severe threat materializes.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
As of 214 pm edt Wednesday...

MVFR to at times ifr ceilings continue to mainly affect areas
away from the tafs along the southern blue ridge to about mount
airy nc. Some clearing possible here but expectation is for
ceilings to again lower in this area overnight, with perhaps
some light showers sprinkles. Again, away from the tafs but
aviators flying routes in around the southern blue ridge into
the nc foothills should be aware of obscured mountain ridges.

Otherwise, for the tafs looking atVFR conditions tonight with
east winds 4-8 kts veering slightly to southeast south thru
overnight.

Lingering ceilings should erode by mid-morning and give way to
increasing convective development. While mainlyVFR, look for
cumulus to develop initially on the southern blue ridge from
floyd to watauga counties with isolated widely scattered
shra tsra possible very late in the TAF period. Coverage limited
and not likely to affect roanoke or blacksburg tafs attm. Winds
south to southwest 4-8 kts.

Forecast confidence is overall moderate to high.

Extended aviation discussion...

while details still are in some question, potential exists for
strong thunderstorms north of route 460 and especially north of
i-64 between the mid-afternoon to mid-evening Thursday. This
should mainly stay north of roanoke, but threat could be
possible for lewisburg and lynchburg. Storms potentially capable
of gusty winds, lightning and heavy rainfall, though confidence
is lower than average with better chances into northern va.

More limited potential for showers or storms south of this area
with mainlyVFR outside of any thunder.

Vfr conditions are expected across the region Friday thru
Sunday. Exception is with evening overnight fog but confidence
low on development attm.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Al
near term... Al
short term... mbs
long term... mbs
aviation... Al


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lynchburg, Lynchburg Regional Airport, VA14 mi42 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast74°F53°F48%1023.5 hPa

Wind History from LYH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4CalmE5E4E5NE7NE8NE6NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN35NE94E74S4S6S6
1 day agoS5S65SW3SW3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N43NE54CalmCalm
2 days agoS13
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Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
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Wed -- 01:52 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:12 AM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:43 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.50.81.82.93.63.93.83.32.61.91.30.80.40.30.81.82.73.33.53.22.62

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Wed -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:08 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:51 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.40.71.62.63.33.63.432.41.81.20.80.40.30.71.62.433.12.92.41.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.