Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 4:11 AM   Moonset 5:47 PM

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FXUS61 KRNK 061111 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 711 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough of low pressure, over the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, will move east and across the mid Atlantic Region today. This will result in the formation of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storms this afternoon may contain heavy rain and small hail. The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the upcoming week with a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 700 AM EDT Monday..

Key Messages:

1. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

2. A few strong storms possible between 3PM-7PM with small hail and heavy downpours.

In spite of areas of low level stratus and fog this morning the wedge of stable air east of the mountains is pretty much gone.
No longer see any easterly component to the winds at the surface, and once mixing begins later this morning should see southerly winds at the surface promoting rapid warm up. Short wave trough which brought heavy rain to TX is now crossing the lower OH and TN Valleys, this upper support progged to cross our forecast area later this afternoon and evening. Current forecast is for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms and for the most part this sounds reasonable. Concern is that timing of the vort axis and max PVA will occur during the peak heating leading to MUCAPE of 1500 j/KG and possibly a little higher over the piedmont. This suggest potential for a few strong pulse type storms and/or cluster or two of loosely organized storms which may produce small hail and heavy rain. PWAT forecast of 1.30 RNK to 1.70 GSO will be tracking near max value for the time of year, so would expect very rain efficient airmass and potential for localized heavy downpours. In this environment, QPF will be highly variable, but can't rule out localized thunderstorm which may dump up to 3 inches of rain causing flash flood scenario. In general thinking a marginal threat for severe if MUCAPE exceeds 1500 and marginal threat for excessive heavy rain if PWATs verify 90th percentile or higher.

Used the warmer MAV MOS for temperatures this afternoon. MET MOS looks too cool per loss of wedge. Dewpoints in the 60s are forecast areawide, so it should feel rather humid.

Upper trough will exit the region tonight, showers/storms fading with the loss of daytime heating. Will taper pops by midnight with little or no activity after midnight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 430 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Unsettled conditions leading to showers and thunderstorms each day

A few shortwaves in the vicinity of a stalled front will maintain unsettled weather in the area through Wednesday. Tuesday features some mid-level ridging that will act to suppress more severe storm formation. However, there still exists a marginal threat for damaging winds or large hail up to 1" in size.

On Wednesday the instability in the atmosphere will be greater than on Tuesday. In addition the mid-level ridge will be gone, replaced by approaching troughing and overhead zonal flow. This setup lends itself to scattered thunderstorms with some severe potential, with the greatest threat being damaging winds. With less limiting factors and encroaching troughing and a surface low in the west, highest threat will be west of the Blue Ridge.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 500 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Warming trend to start the work week, cooler and dry next weekend.

2. Showers and thunderstorm chances each day.

Thursday into Thursday night we will see more chances for showers and thunderstorms. A slowly filling surface low will move west to east across the OH Valley, putting us just south of the triple point and well under dense cloud cover for most of the area. Instability looks best for our northern NC counties, which may see some strong thunderstorms. The initial short wave trough associated with the upper level system will be positively tilted and crosses the Appalachians Friday and Saturday, pushing a cold front ahead of it. This will mean more widespread rain and thunderstorms. While there are mixed signals as far as severe thunderstorm chances, the chances for moderate to heavy widespread rainfall leading to flooding increases each day during this wet period, and at the moment looks like the bigger threat.

High temperatures gradually decrease each day Thursday through Saturday with overcast skies and the passage of the front. We may finally see the sun either late Friday or Saturday. The weekend looks cooler and drier with dew points dropping into the 30s and 40s, and this is supported by NAEFS situational awareness projections.

Confidence in the long term is moderate for most parameters, but lower for timing of showers and storms.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

Dealing with patchy fog and stratus early this morning. Area of dense fog ongoing generally east of LYH/DAN.

After morning stratus and fog, expect cloud buildups early afternoon. Upper level trough over the lower OH and TN valleys will cross the Appalachians during the peak heating of the day so would anticipate formation of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and persisting until loss of daytime heating. Cloud bases will be highly variable today, favoring sub VFR as a whole. Winds sfc and aloft will be from the south and southwest, under 10 kts at the surface, but with higher speeds/gusts near thunderstorms. Do think the showers and storms may become loosely organized with clusters of storms producing small hail and downpours of heavy rain.

Showers/storms are expected to fade will loss of daytime heating.
However, clouds will linger with reformation of sub-VFR stratus and fog after midnight .

Forecast confidence is average, but lower on specific locations of showers and storms this afternoon and evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Unsettled weather is expected for much of the upcoming week.
Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA Tuesday through Friday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times.
Winds through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

Falling Creek entrance
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