Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 11:22 PM   Moonset 7:34 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KRNK 270242 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1042 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
A wedge of high pressure will keep clouds and occasional rain showers or drizzle in the area through Saturday. Dry conditions and very warm temperatures return for the end of the weekend and remain into much of next week. Chances for rain increase by the middle of next week with a frontal passage. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon hours each day for the remainder of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1030 PM EDT Friday...

No significant changes with the latest forecast update, with only modest tweaks for rain chances overnight to add slight chances for portions of the Piedmont. Also added adjustments to increase cloud cover based on latest satellite trends, as well as for temperatures by a degree or two as we head into the overnight period.

As of 150 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure continues to wedge south along the eastern side of the Appalachians. Surface obs still indicating an easterly flow and visible satellite still showing stratus layer over much of the area. Daytime heating has helped to erode the cloud cover, but expecting the clouds to increase again tonight after losing daytime heating. Some light rain and drizzle may develop overnight, and perhaps some areas of fog in the North Carolina mountains and along the southern Blue Ridge in Virginia.

Any showery activity is expected to diminish a few hours after daybreak and clouds will begin to erode throughout the day. High pressure moves into a less favorable position, therefore expecting a quicker erosion of the low stratus deck. Should see temperatures a few degrees warmer tomorrow in response to the weaker easterly flow and quicker cloud erosion.

Temperatures tonight into the mid/upper 40s to low 50s. High tomorrow mid/upper 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Still expecting some residual cloud cover from cool easterly flow through Saturday night. High pressure moves south, centered off the DelMarVa by Sunday morning.

Upper ridging quickly builds over the Southeast on Sunday as high pressure continues to move south. Southwest flow will increase and warm air will advect into the region. Dry and mostly sunny conditions are expected for Sunday with temperatures into the upper 70s/low 80s.

Ridging continues through Monday night and warm air advection increases as a front to the west moves close to the region.
850mb temperatures reach +14C to +17C and under sunny skies should translate to widespread 80s to perhaps even some upper 80s, nearing the low 90s by Monday afternoon in the Roanoke Valley and Piedmont areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages: 1. Very warm temperatures continue through midweek.
2. Shower and thunderstorm chances for Tuesday, and continue through the week.

Upper level ridging will start to slide eastward Tuesday, but still keep positive height anomalies over the eastern US, and thus warmer than normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. A cold front approaches the region Tuesday, looking to first reach the mountains by Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may accompany this front Tuesday afternoon and evening. Southwesterly flow ahead of this front will draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the Midwest and Mid Atlantic, and diurnal heating will help increase atmospheric instability, although that may be limited by increasing cloud cover ahead of the front. That front crosses the area quickly, and should be to the east by Wednesday.

Through the beginning of the week, another low pressure system develops in the north central Plains, and tracks eastward into the Great Lakes region by midweek, with a trailing cold front extending towards the southeastern states. Some showers and thunderstorms are also possible from the passage of this front, however, the upper level forcing does not look to be as strong as the prior front on Tuesday. Deterministic long range guidance shows differences in the timing and evolution of this front, and thus its impacts to the area. This front does look to bring some relief from the heat, as winds behind it turn mostly northwesterly, bringing some cooler air down from the north.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...

Starting the evening off with continued easterly windflow that is carrying a layer of marine air off the Atlantic, supporting widespread stratocu. Bases of this deck are mainly VFR, in the 4kft to 8kft range, though the upslope windflow along the crest of the Blue Ridge from the VA/NC state line through TNB are supporting low-MVFR to IFR ceilings in this area.

Stratus deck with low MVFR to IFR bases will redevelop tonight toward the 05Z to 08Z time range. Can also expect spotty showers to develop as rain associated a warm front lifting northward west of the Appalachian Chain spills over the mountains. Most shower activity, mainly spotty in coverage, will occur north of Highway 460 through early afternoon before exiting the region.
Winds will shift more southerly by 18Z as well, helping low clouds to scatter and lift, making for generally BKN to OVC, mostly VFR ceilings through the remainder of the day.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Mixed MVFR/VFR conditions likely to continue into Saturday night, with improving ceilings by Sunday.

Sunday and Monday should be mainly VFR. Winds turn more southerly Saturday through Monday. Tuesday will see a cold front approach the area with non-VFR weather possible in -TSRA areawide.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Blacksburg, VA,