Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pulaski, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:38PM Monday January 22, 2018 5:22 AM EST (10:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:46AMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pulaski, VA
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location: 37.18, -80.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 220944
afdrnk
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
444 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft early today will
give way to a strong upper-level low pressure area and
associated cold front moving east from the central u.S. The cold
front will bring widespread rainshowers and isolated
thunderstorms to the area late today and tonight, followed by
colder temperatures, gusty northwest winds, and mountain snow
showers by Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate to above normal
again later in the week before the next frontal system arrives
during the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 415 am est Monday...

weather conditions will deteriorate fairly rapidly today from
our nice weekend weather as a deep upper low pressure area and
associated cold front move toward the area from the west. The
system is a full-scale cyclone with a significant snow storm on
the north end and severe thunderstorms on the south end.

Fortunately, neither one of these inclement conditions is
expected in our region to any degree, but there are nonetheless
some concerns that will need to be addressed as the weather
system moves through our area later tonight and Tuesday.

Through the afternoon, clouds, moisture, and winds will be on
the increase across the CWA as the weather system approaches.

While there may be a few sprinkles or light showers out ahead of
the front during the afternoon, strong forcing should support a
qlcs-type convective system, which will enter southwest va just
before sunset and translate eastward to the piedmont by
midnight. With a 65-70kt LLJ accompanying this activity, will
need to monitor for convection that may be able to mix down to
the surface with these gusty winds. While the area is outlooked
for thunder, currently severe probabilities are not indicated in
our area. It is interesting to note that each successive model
run advertises slightly stronger forcing and instability as this
system moves into the area, so it will need to be watched.

Brooks-craven svr parameter has been creeping up into the
5000-10000 range and at least weak instability has been
indicated for several model runs. However, there are
indications that a slight "in- situ" wedge may be in place, so
depending on the degree of cloud cover and light precipitation
that occurs in advance, will largely determine the intensity of
the main convection as it arrives later today. Brief heavy
rainfall is expected with the stronger convective cells as well,
but given the overall dryness and lack of meaningful
precipitation in the past couple of months (very cold and dry!),
do not foresee any hydro issues as this system will be moving
through very quickly.

All of last weeks snow cover is gone, even though the ground is
still quite cold from 2+ weeks of single digit and teen
temperatures. With gusty southwest winds and accompanying warm
advection with 850mb temperatures around +10c, look for most
areas east of the blue ridge to be well into the 60s today, with
50s further west for highs. Temperatures will remain above
normal overnight as the true colder air will not arrive with
this system until later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Thus, for
today temperatures will average about 20 degrees above normal
and will still be about 15 degrees above normal Tuesday morning.

So at this point, despite some minor concerns with thunderstorms
and gusty winds, nothing meets headline criteria. Any concerns
during the forecast period will be addressed via the hwo.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday night
As of 345 am est Monday...

the cold front will be pushing through the region east of the blue
ridge across the piedmont Tuesday morning before exiting the region and
taking the showers and thunderstorms with it. Will be watching
the front until it is clear of the area for any embedded
convective elements capable of bringing strong winds to the
surface.

Behind the front temperatures will be falling and upslope snow showers
will develop west of the blue ridge aided by short wave energy
streaming around the large upper trof over the eastern us. While the
snow is not expected to be particularly heavy, it will be a prolonged
period of show showers west of the ridge through Wednesday night that
will result in a couple of inches of accumulation at the higher
elevations through the 2 day period. The low level wind field will
amplify considerably behind the front and bufkit soundings indicate
efficient downward momentum transfer. This will create a prolonged
period of strong, gusty winds especially west of the blue ridge through
midweek.

Long term Friday through Sunday
As of 155 pm est Sunday...

dry weather expected into Friday as high pressure moves across
the area then sets up over new england, while upper trough digs
across the central and northern plains. Will start to see
moisture work northeast on southwest flow late Friday into
Friday night.

Better threat of rain showers moves in late Saturday into Sunday
ahead of slow moving front, as the front becomes parallel to the
upper flow. This looks like a good chance for seeing an inch or
more of rain. Colder air will be delayed until Sunday night but
we could see some accumulating snow showers in the mountains
per strong forcing aloft with trough.

Temperatures will average above normal this period, falling back
toward normal or below beyond Sunday.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
As of 1115 pm est Sunday...

overallVFR to ocnl MVFR cloud bases to persist overnight as
passing bands of strato-cu work across the region into early
Monday. WhileVFR ceilings are likely in the east, the best
chance at seeing MVFR will continue to reside over the western
mountains. Visibilities are expected to remainVFR into
tonight, then patchy MVFR fog is possible overnight into Monday
morning. Only exception around the klwb vicinity where
warm moist air over the colder river will make for locally dense
fog stratus with ifr lifr CIGS vsbys likely through daybreak on
Monday.

AppearsVFR to hold for much of the day on Monday with a
gradual increase in MVFR CIGS from the south and west ahead of
an upstream cold front by later in the afternoon. Looks like a
few showers well ahead of the front could arrive in the west by
later in the day but for now leaving out any vsby restrictions
due to showers until after 00z 7pm Monday evening. South to
southeast winds will also increase with speeds of 10-20 kts
possible Monday afternoon, including gusts to perhaps 25 kts or
higher along the western ridges near kblf.

Notam... The ASOS at kdan remains inop tonight due to a power
supply failure and likely wont return to service until sometime
later Monday. Therefore the observation remains missing at this
time. Also since lower ceilings and or patchy fog may impact
the site, TAF amendments will not occur until data is once again
available from the ASOS unit. This includes an addition of amd
not sked in the terminal forecast at kdan at this point.

Extended discussion...

sub-vfr conditions are expected to overspread the area from
west to east ahead of a strong cold front Monday night as a
swath of showers passes across overnight into early Tuesday.

In addition an embedded qlcs with isolated thunderstorms, may
accompany the front overnight including a 50-60kt low level jet.

Consequently, the greatest concern with these showers will be
strong wind gusts, potentially of 45-50 mph or possibly even
greater for a short duration in the Monday night early Tuesday
morning time frame. Strong gusty northwest winds are expected
behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday.VFR ceilings should
return to the piedmont by Tuesday afternoon, but MVFR ceilings
with low clouds and potentially -shsn can be expected across the
westernmost sites, and possibly as far east at times as kbcb.

High pressure andVFR conditions along with diminishing winds
should return to the entire area by Wednesday. Dry weather
including good flying conditions can be expected Thursday and
Friday.

Equipment
As of 325 pm est Friday...

noaa weather radio, wxl60 (roanoke transmitter) which
broadcasts at 162.475 mhz remains off the air. The phone company
reported that the circuit line had been cut and will take until
Monday january 22nd to fix it.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Rab
near term... Rab
short term... mbs
long term... mbs wp
aviation... Jh kk rab
equipment... Wp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dublin / New River Valley, VA11 mi28 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F37°F93%1021.3 hPa
Bluefield, Mercer County Airport, WV20 mi31 minS 7 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F37°F63%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from PSK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6SW4CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmSW3SW4SW6SW3SW3CalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW11W8W9SW6W7
G14
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W7SW6SW8SW6S6SW9SW7SW6SW6SW6W3
2 days agoS9SW7SW8SW8W11
G15
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G20
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G16
W11
G16
SW11SW11SW14SW11SW10SW8SW6SW3CalmSW7SW3CalmCalmSW7W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.