Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pulaski, VA
May 2, 2024 7:29 PM EDT (23:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM Moonset 1:02 PM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 021737 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 137 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be nudged out of the area over the next 24 hours as a frontal system moves east. A low pressure system brings scattered showers to the region by tomorrow night, and this trend only increases for the weekend. Unseasonably warm temperatures and a daily threat of late day showers and thunderstorms continue through next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1. Possibility of tying/exceeding high temperature records this afternoon.
2. Increasing clouds towards morning, with warm overnight lows.
3. Clouds and rain chances increase by tomorrow afternoon for the southern Blue Ridge, gradually spreading to the remainder of the area.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a baroclinic zone stretching from central Canada down to the TX Gulf Coast. The Mid Atlantic region was under a 580 dam ridge. An upper low was centered near southern Saskatchewan and northern Montana.
Overnight,expect mostly clear skies, with some patches of clouds and fog possible towards morning. Lows will be warm under a strong ridge, with cooler temperatures in the 50s for the lower elevations, and as warm as the lower 60s for the ridges and the Piedmont.
A short wave trough rotates from the Plains to the Great Lakes region tomorrow. This will be the forcing that pushes the baroclinic zone towards us. That said, 2-D frontogenesis looks weak here tomorrow, with the heft of the short wave energy concentrating over the southern Gulf Coast and the OH Valley.
Precipitation start time may vary, based on the actual location of the baroclinic zone and attendant cloud cover. At any rate, showers and storms will be scattered to begin with, so not everywhere will receive rain tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Currently have convection first firing along the southern Blue Ridge in the afternoon, and very gradually increasing in coverage to include the remainder of the area, including the Blue Ridge mountains westward, during the evening. This is backed up by GEFS probabilities showing chances for more than 0.01 inches of rain to be near zero east of the mountains before 8 PM.
Output from the NAEFS situational awareness table shows 850mb temperatures about 1-2 standard deviations above normal for the thirty-year climatological period for Friday. This yields temperatures pretty similar to today, but based on an expected increase in mid and high clouds tomorrow, overall temperature readings will be a tad cooler.
Confidence in the near term forecast is moderate.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is high for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout this upcoming weekend.
2) A marginal risk of flooding exists on Saturday and Saturday night.
A cold front will approach the Appalachian Mountains during Friday night into Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward, but the highest chances and coverage are more likely by Saturday afternoon and evening. Due to the prevalent moisture expected in the atmosphere, some of these storms could produce heavy downpours. While antecedent conditions are rather dry, the storms could train over the same locations as the cold front slows upon crossing the Blue Ridge.
Consequently, a marginal risk of flooding exists during late Saturday into Saturday night.
The primary area of low pressure with this cold front will stay well to the north across eastern Canada. While the northern part of the cold front will eventually head offshore, the southern part will become parallel with the zonal upper level flow and stall across the Mid Atlantic. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures will start a little below normal for highs on Saturday but trend warmer by Sunday, but lows should remain quite elevated due to the prevalence of cloud cover.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is moderate for ongoing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
2) Temperatures will trend warmer as the week progresses.
With a stalled frontal boundary draped across the Mid Atlantic, several waves of low pressure will track eastward to bring a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some upper level ridging should occur by the middle of the week, which will push temperatures above normal but fuel more instability for convection. Deciphering which days will be the most active for showers and thunderstorms remains difficult due to the subtle timing differences of these waves of low pressure in the models.
The frontal boundary may budge northward as a warm front towards Tuesday and Wednesday. Even though a cold front may arrive by Thursday, there does not appear to be any appreciable change in the air mass to end this unsettled pattern.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR weather continues through at least 18Z Friday May 3.
Mid and high clouds move in around daybreak and continue through 18Z Friday, with VFR ceilings through that time. Variable winds today, mainly from the south and west-southwest, become even more light and variable overnight. SSW winds increase to 5-10 kts around 18Z Friday.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Beginning Friday afternoon and evening, scattered TSRA and SHRA begin to push in from the WSW, impacting BLF and BCB first. TSRA spreads to the remainder of the area during the night and continues off and on through the weekend. This will brings periods of MVFR TSRA/SHRA at times, with LIFR being more likely Saturday and Sunday. Daily afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA continue Monday and Tuesday with periods of MVFR ceilings/ visibilities.
Easterly winds across the Piedmont will shift to southerly along with the mountains by Saturday, and become slightly gusty each afternoon.
CLIMATE
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...
Record high temperatures for today, May 2
Lynchburg, VA....91 in 1942 Roanoke, VA......92 in 1959 Blacksburg, VA...87 in 1942
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 137 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be nudged out of the area over the next 24 hours as a frontal system moves east. A low pressure system brings scattered showers to the region by tomorrow night, and this trend only increases for the weekend. Unseasonably warm temperatures and a daily threat of late day showers and thunderstorms continue through next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1. Possibility of tying/exceeding high temperature records this afternoon.
2. Increasing clouds towards morning, with warm overnight lows.
3. Clouds and rain chances increase by tomorrow afternoon for the southern Blue Ridge, gradually spreading to the remainder of the area.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a baroclinic zone stretching from central Canada down to the TX Gulf Coast. The Mid Atlantic region was under a 580 dam ridge. An upper low was centered near southern Saskatchewan and northern Montana.
Overnight,expect mostly clear skies, with some patches of clouds and fog possible towards morning. Lows will be warm under a strong ridge, with cooler temperatures in the 50s for the lower elevations, and as warm as the lower 60s for the ridges and the Piedmont.
A short wave trough rotates from the Plains to the Great Lakes region tomorrow. This will be the forcing that pushes the baroclinic zone towards us. That said, 2-D frontogenesis looks weak here tomorrow, with the heft of the short wave energy concentrating over the southern Gulf Coast and the OH Valley.
Precipitation start time may vary, based on the actual location of the baroclinic zone and attendant cloud cover. At any rate, showers and storms will be scattered to begin with, so not everywhere will receive rain tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Currently have convection first firing along the southern Blue Ridge in the afternoon, and very gradually increasing in coverage to include the remainder of the area, including the Blue Ridge mountains westward, during the evening. This is backed up by GEFS probabilities showing chances for more than 0.01 inches of rain to be near zero east of the mountains before 8 PM.
Output from the NAEFS situational awareness table shows 850mb temperatures about 1-2 standard deviations above normal for the thirty-year climatological period for Friday. This yields temperatures pretty similar to today, but based on an expected increase in mid and high clouds tomorrow, overall temperature readings will be a tad cooler.
Confidence in the near term forecast is moderate.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is high for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout this upcoming weekend.
2) A marginal risk of flooding exists on Saturday and Saturday night.
A cold front will approach the Appalachian Mountains during Friday night into Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward, but the highest chances and coverage are more likely by Saturday afternoon and evening. Due to the prevalent moisture expected in the atmosphere, some of these storms could produce heavy downpours. While antecedent conditions are rather dry, the storms could train over the same locations as the cold front slows upon crossing the Blue Ridge.
Consequently, a marginal risk of flooding exists during late Saturday into Saturday night.
The primary area of low pressure with this cold front will stay well to the north across eastern Canada. While the northern part of the cold front will eventually head offshore, the southern part will become parallel with the zonal upper level flow and stall across the Mid Atlantic. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures will start a little below normal for highs on Saturday but trend warmer by Sunday, but lows should remain quite elevated due to the prevalence of cloud cover.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is moderate for ongoing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
2) Temperatures will trend warmer as the week progresses.
With a stalled frontal boundary draped across the Mid Atlantic, several waves of low pressure will track eastward to bring a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some upper level ridging should occur by the middle of the week, which will push temperatures above normal but fuel more instability for convection. Deciphering which days will be the most active for showers and thunderstorms remains difficult due to the subtle timing differences of these waves of low pressure in the models.
The frontal boundary may budge northward as a warm front towards Tuesday and Wednesday. Even though a cold front may arrive by Thursday, there does not appear to be any appreciable change in the air mass to end this unsettled pattern.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR weather continues through at least 18Z Friday May 3.
Mid and high clouds move in around daybreak and continue through 18Z Friday, with VFR ceilings through that time. Variable winds today, mainly from the south and west-southwest, become even more light and variable overnight. SSW winds increase to 5-10 kts around 18Z Friday.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Beginning Friday afternoon and evening, scattered TSRA and SHRA begin to push in from the WSW, impacting BLF and BCB first. TSRA spreads to the remainder of the area during the night and continues off and on through the weekend. This will brings periods of MVFR TSRA/SHRA at times, with LIFR being more likely Saturday and Sunday. Daily afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA continue Monday and Tuesday with periods of MVFR ceilings/ visibilities.
Easterly winds across the Piedmont will shift to southerly along with the mountains by Saturday, and become slightly gusty each afternoon.
CLIMATE
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...
Record high temperatures for today, May 2
Lynchburg, VA....91 in 1942 Roanoke, VA......92 in 1959 Blacksburg, VA...87 in 1942
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPSK NEW RIVER VALLEY,VA | 11 sm | 14 min | SSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 46°F | 30% | 30.01 | |
| KBLF MERCER COUNTY,WV | 19 sm | 37 min | var 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 43°F | 28% | 30.03 |
Blacksburg, VA,
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