Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pulaski, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday May 25, 2019 7:34 AM EDT (11:34 UTC) Moonrise 12:35AMMoonset 11:04AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pulaski, VA
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location: 37.18, -80.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 250829
afdrnk
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
429 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
A weak backdoor frontal system will sag slowly southward today
toward the nc va border by tonight, likely triggering scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The front
will linger near the virginia north carolina border through
Monday, then drift back to the north as a warm front Tuesday.

Another cold front will reach the area by the end of the week.

Otherwise, aloft, an area of high pressure will keep the region
warm and humid through most of the week ahead.

Near term through tonight
As of 415 am edt Saturday...

a large and strong subtropical ridge remains anchored over
georgia while the westerlies remain active from the central
plains to the northern mid-atlantic and new england. A series of
disturbances aloft continue to track around and along the
northern periphery of the upper ridge. These disturbances are
close enough to squash the northern extent of the upper ridge
southward from time-to-time, allowing scattered convection
developing across the midwest great lakes region to slide east-
southeast or southeast with time, thus having the potential to
skirt at least the northern areas of the cwa. Today will be no
exception to this pattern as a notable disturbance tracks across
oh into pa overnight. The hires cam models to varying degrees
indicate once again the potential for isolated to scattered
convection this afternoon, and this pattern is consistent with
recent events. The i64 corridor will remain the most favored
area for convection again through the weekend and into early
next week. There is the potential that one or two storms could
be strong to severe as CAPE values are quite high, but shear is
low under the ridge. SPC has actually, for now at least, removed
the CWA from the risk of severe today and Sunday, just leaving
general thunder, confining the severe threat closer to the
md WV va border. With regard to pops, not comfortable going any
higher than 50% at this point as there is too much uncertainty
as to how far convection will penetrate southward into the cwa
and how long it will last into the evening. The hrrr remains
more agressive with convection than the namnest, which generally
has had a better handle on convection evolution and coverage the
past few days. Thus, have advertised 50% pops north to 20% pops
south, ending after midnight.

Temperatures will remain above normal, but a slight period of
northeast winds and more cloud cover today along with afternoon
showers thunderstorms north, should hold temperatures down a few
degrees from Friday's readings. However, feel the mavmos is
indicating too much cooling, so leaned heavily toward the ecmwf
mos guidance for today's highs. Not much variation in low
temperatures with it remaining more like mid-july than late may.

So for today look for highs in the mid 80s west to lower 90s
east, except mid to upper 70s mountains, with lows tonight
mostly in the 60s, near 70 southeast.

Confidence in forecast parameters
temperatures - moderate to high,
precipitation probabilities - low to moderate,
winds - moderate,
thunderstorm probabilities - low to moderate.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday night
As of 233 am edt Saturday...

the weather pattern remains stuck as a strong broad upper level
ridge continues to sit over the gulf states. The chances for rain
Sunday and Monday will come from meso-scale convective systems (mcs)
tracking from the plains to the midwest, then sliding southeast
toward the area once they are in the ohio river valley. The two
mcs's that approach the area Sunday night and Monday night will be
in the decaying stage, but still could bring some isolated strong to
severe weather to the area. Majority of the showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon will be the typical summer-like
convection, fading in the evening.

Each MCS will have a trailing cold front associated with it, but
will not provide much relief from the heat. High temperatures both
days will range in the 80s across the mountains to the low to mid
90s east. These temperatures are around 10f-15f warmer than normal.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
As of 321 pm edt Friday...

Wednesday, the ridge starts to get squashed to the southeast as
upper trough digs across the upper midwest great lakes. Still
appears very warm hot for most but should see an uptick in
storms firing in the afternoon evening across the
mountains foothills. Still only slight to low chance pops. Highs
will be in the 80s in the mountains, to lower to mid 90s east
of the blue ridge. At present humidity levels dewpoints should
preclude any heat index issues, but could approach 100 in the
piedmont Tuesday afternoon for an hour or two.

Surface front shifts toward the area Thursday with a better chance
of showers and storms, though the main dynamics jet stay north of
the area. With heat abating, should see temps cooler. Storms may be
strong given how we heat up prior to the frontal passage, so more
energy to work with. Still only expecting isolated to scattered
storms with best coverage in the mountains. Temps drop back to upper
70s to lower 80s in the mountains, to mid 80s to around 90 east
for highs Thursday.

By Friday, models show zonal flow with front pushing off the coast
and high pressure building in from the ohio and tennessee valleys.

Temps will be closer to normal for the end of may with 70s in the
mountains, to lower to mid 80s east.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 200 am edt Saturday...

mostlyVFR conditions expected through the TAF valid period. The
forecast area will remain on the northern periphery of a strong
mid-level subtropical upper ridge. The main and best dynamics
will remain north of the area, with large scale subsidence
further south. Temperatures heights aloft are quite high for
this area with the 0z rnk sounding showing a 500mb height of
588dm and a temperature of -8c. More typical of july than late
may. This pattern will generally continue for the next few days.

The thing to keep an eye on are stronger disturbances tracking
across the great lakes and into the northeastern u.S. That will
attempt to periodically squash the upper ridge southward. One
such disturbance is expected this afternoon evening, enough to
support isolated to scattered northwest flow
showers thunderstorms during the afternoon evening, then
dissipating, much as we have seen the past few days. SPC has
backed off the severe threat for our area, but has left much of
the area in general thunder. Best chances will be across the
west and north. Have indicated this in the tafs with vcts
west north vs. Prob30 east, and none indicated at kdan at this
time.

Outside isolated to scattered afternoon evening
showers thunderstorms, main concern will be late night early
morning radiational fog. Seeing 1 4sm fg vv001 at klwb for the
past several hours this morning, and this will likely continue
as it often does in the summertime through daybreak or shortly
thereafter. Would also expect kbcb to see fog developing very
soon. Otherwise, feel it is too warm dry for fog tonight and
most sites will seeVFR ceilings and visibilities throughout the
taf valid period, with CU bases generally aoa035. The
development of fog overnight morning will be largely dependent
on where it rains the evening before. Much of the rain the past
few days has been in the greenbrier valley.

Winds will be variable from NW to NE to SE to SW through the
day, finally ending on SW 5-10kts by afternoon.

Confidence in forecast parameters
ceilings - moderate to high,
visibilities - moderate to high,
winds - moderate,
thunderstorm threat - low to moderate.

Extended aviation discussion...VFR conditions are expected
across the region into early next week as high pressure offshore
maintains a hot humid airmass across the region. Exception is
with evening overnight fog but confidence low on development
at this time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms resulting in
brief sub-VFR conditions are also possible Sunday in the west,
and early next week across most of the mountains, but more
isolated coverage for Monday into Tuesday. Isolated convection
possible in the western mountains on Wednesday.

Climate
As of 815 pm edt Friday...

a new record high temperature of 85 degrees was set at
blacksburg virginia today, while the old record of 92 degrees
was tied at roanoke. Please see the wbcrerrnk product for added
details.

High temperatures will be close to records at few climate sites
Saturday through Sunday. The * shows records that may be tied
or broken based on the current forecast.

May 25th record highs:
bluefield - 87 in 1953
danville - 96 in 1933
lynchburg - 93 in 1936
roanoke - 94 in 1953
blacksburg- 89 in 1953
may 26th record highs:
bluefield - 88 in 1955
danville - 98 in 1965
lynchburg - 95 in 1936
roanoke - 95 in 1941
blacksburg- 85 in 2010 *

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Rab
near term... Rab
short term... Rcs
long term... Rcs wp
aviation... Al kk rab
climate... AMS jh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dublin / New River Valley, VA11 mi39 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist62°F61°F100%1024.4 hPa
Bluefield, Mercer County Airport, WV20 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair63°F60°F90%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from PSK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W13
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NW6N4N5CalmW3S3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW5SW6S7SW5NW5W9
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2 days agoE3E5E5E6SE5SE4SE3SE6S6S5S10S6S8S4S3S4S5S4S4S3SW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.