Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pulaski, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:14PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 2:30 AM EST (07:30 UTC) Moonrise 12:09PMMoonset 10:21PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pulaski, VA
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location: 37.18, -80.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 130508
afdrnk
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
1208 am est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure from the gulf will track over the region tonight,
reaching the new england coast Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front
entering the ohio valley will move east and stall along the
coast Tuesday night. Low pressure will develop along the front
over the southeast united states Wednesday night and track
through the mid atlantic region Thursday.

Near term through Tuesday
As of midnight est Tuesday...

heaviest of the rain as moved into central eastern nc va with
lingering drizzle mist fog across the remainder of the cwa.

Flood warning has been issued for the dan river per 2+ inches of
rain. Flood advisories are also ongoing for parts of the va nc
piedmont..Streams creeks either bankful or into minor flood,
some road closures noted.

A wedge of cool air remains over the area. Readings should
remain steady or rise a few degrees overnight once the rain
tapers. A few locations are hovering around 32, including
blacksburg, but no ice has been reported.

The surface low which has resulted in the widespread rain is
forecast to track northeast and off the DELMARVA coast Tuesday
morning. A weak cold front will then slide across the region,
bring additional light rain showers to the area. Rain will taper
off from west to east in the afternoon as the front moves to
the coast. Overcast skies will likely remain through the day
with high temperatures recovering into the mid to upper 40s
across the mountains and lower 50s east.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
As of 245 pm est Monday...

Tuesday evening the far southwest portion of the area will be
receiving the tail end of the exiting line of showers associated
with the departing cold front. Western greenbrier county will
start to experience northwest upslope flow, residual moisture
and falling temperatures to yield some isolated snow showers.

Both regions of light precipitation are expected to end by
midnight.

Dry high pressure will make a brief visit to the area Wednesday
morning. By the afternoon, light precipitation will start to
overspread this high pressure from the south. This
precipitation, in the form of light rain, will primarily only
impact the northern mountains of north carolina through sunset.

Wednesday night into Thursday, precipitation will continue to
overspread the area on the eastern flanks of an area of low
pressure moving eastward through the mid-mississippi river
valley. A strong, deep, southeast fetch of moisture off the
atlantic will develop. This moisture will only help to enhance
the nose of high pressure east of the crest of the blue ridge,
helping to keep surface temperatures on the cool to cold side,
all while bringing a nose of warmer air over the region not too
far off the surface. The result will be about an 18 hour period
where a decent portion of the forecast area will be receiving
freezing rain to at least some accretion. Highest amounts are
expected to be along and near the crest of the blue ridge thanks
to enhanced precipitation totals here where the effect of a
southeast upslope flow will maximize precipitation totals.

Given how far out in time this event still is, will be using a
fairly conservative 33% ice versus wpc QPF totals. Even doing
this results in some storm total ice amounts at or a little
above the quarter-inch threshold in the aforementioned favored
areas, with at least a few hundredths of an inch for a vast
majority of the forecast area save parts of southside virginia
and north central north carolina, and far southwest virginia
towards richlands. This trend upward in ice totals matches well
with the trend offered by wpc as reflected in their most recent
3-day ice accretion totals.

While we are forecasting for the early part of Thursday rain
versus freezing rain, sleet could also be falling over parts of
the area currently forecast for freezing rain. To keep the
forecast simple that far out, we try not to offer more than one
winter weather type at a time in the forecast, but either
freezing or snow. With the warm nose in place, freezing rain,
where warranted, is the better choice of the two. However, as we
get closer to the date in question, and sleet looks more
probable where freezing rain currently is forecast, this
alteration would lower the currently forecast ice accretion
totals. By Thursday afternoon, the entire region looks warm
enough for plain rain, albeit a cold rain.

Thursday night, the parent upper low is expected to be moving
along the mason dixon line, bring its associated trough axis and
cold front through our region. This transition will shunt the
warm nose to our east as cold air advection streams into the
area on progressively gusty northwest winds. This will result in
a transition to scattered rain snow showers across mainly
western sections of the area.

During this portion of the forecast low temperatures will
average around normal. However, high temperatures will be about
10 degrees below normal on Wednesday, and about 15-20 degrees
below normal.

Forecast confidence is moderate on the general transition of
the weather patterns during this portion of the forecast.

However, confidence regarding the specific precipitation types
and amounts Wednesday night into early Thursday are still in
question and likely will flucuation between now and then. What
is of high confidence is some type of wintry mix other than just
rain versus snow is expected during this time period, raising
the flag for the strong potential for a winter weather headline
for portions of the area.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 1230 pm est Monday...

Friday morning an upper low will be making headway eastward
through the upper ohio river valley with its associated trough
axis extending southward into a portion of our forecast area. A
timing challenge within the models exists to pinpoint just where
this axis will be at the start of the day. However, the general
trend of the day will be for any lingering precipitation in the
east from the Thursday Thursday night system to be exiting the
region, or to dissipate thanks to increasing northwest,
downsloping, winds across the eastern parts of the area. Across
the west, these same gusty northwest winds will allow for a
period of upslope scattered snow rain showers across portions of
southeast west virginia.

Heading into and through the weekend, a general northwest flow
pattern will continue across the area, but but with notably
weaker speeds. Very isolated lingering rain snow showers will be
possible across parts of southeast west virginia Friday night
through Sunday.

Sunday night into Monday models vary as to the degree which a
cold front will impact our region. Our latest forecast will
reflect a consensus of the guidance which yields isolated
rain snow showers from roughly the blue ridge and points west
Sunday night and isolated rain showers across the southeastern
sections of the area on Monday.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are not
expected to show a lot of variation, although there will be a
slightly trend lower by the second half of the weekend post-cold
front. Readings on average will be just a few degrees below
normal.

Forecast confidence is highest on Friday, at moderate
confidence, and trends downhill heading into Monday.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of midnight est Tuesday...

expect poor flight conditions through early Tuesday morning due
to sub-vfr ceilings visbys, mountain obstruction and areas of
wind shear above wedge inversion around 3000 feet.

Steady, at times light rain drizzle mist producing visbys
commonly in the 2-5 sm range will continue across the forecast
area with the heaviest rains occurring east of kdan.

As initial frontal wave low moves northeast, this rain should
begin to decrease to mainly drizzle from west to east through
the overnight, though fog mist and low ceilings (ifr to lifr at
times) likely to persist Tuesday morning. Winds mainly
northeast at 3-8 kts, though increasing southerly low- level jet
and directional shear through the 925-700 mb level indicates
potential for wind shear in the piedmont foothills for the
overnight.

Should see some improvement Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night
as winds become northwest.

Forecast confidence is high for poor flight conditions and
lower end flight categories.

Extended discussion...

look for ceilings to trendVFR from the blue ridge eastward
thanks to downsloping winds for Tuesday night into early
Wednesday, but lingering sub-vfr ceilings along with
intermittent upslope snow showers possible between kblf-klwb.

Another area of low pressure develops along the front on
Wednesday and brings deep moisture back into the mid atlantic
region later Wednesday into Thursday. Sub-vfr possible in rain
and areas of wintry mix Wednesday night into early Thursday
espcly across the mountains. This storm system is expected to
exit the region by Friday with conditions returning toVFR with
the exception of residual upslope snow showers on the western
slopes of the central appalachians.

Forecast confidence above average Tuesday and average Wednesday
through Friday.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Rcs
near term... Pm rcs
short term... Ds
long term... Ds
aviation... Al pm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dublin / New River Valley, VA11 mi56 minW 32.50 miFog/Mist37°F36°F100%1017.9 hPa
Bluefield, Mercer County Airport, WV20 mi39 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F37°F93%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from PSK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE4CalmE6NE5NE4E3E5CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4CalmCalmNE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW10
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NW6NW5NW4N3N3CalmCalmCalmW3Calm

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.