Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springdale, UT
May 7, 2024 9:08 PM MDT (03:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 5:00 AM Moonset 7:26 PM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 072140 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 340 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A slow moving upper level trough will gradually cut- off from the mean flow across southern Utah through the week. A gradual warming trend is expected...though diurnal showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across the higher terrain and adjacent valleys into the weekend, especially across central and southern Utah.
.SHORT TERM (Through 06Z Thursday)...Mountain snow showers and valley rain showers continue across northern Utah this afternoon.
At times, very gusty winds have been reported with these showers, likely associated with higher momentum mix down and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer in the valleys. Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates a broad, longwave trough remains across the central and western United State. The main forcing with this trough is shifting into the High Plains...however the backedge of the trough will gradually shift south and eventually cut-off from the mean flow by early in the long term forecast period.
Expect showers to gradually end near to after sunset with the exception of a potential period of lake effect south and east of the Great Salt Lake. CAMS are nearly universal in developing a band of transitory precipitation, extending to near Parleys initially, then gradually shift to the Cottonwoods and then western Salt Lake County and eventually diminishing near to after 10-12Z. If the residence time in any one location were to last a few hours and precipitation changes to snow, slushy accumulations would be possible on area roads. The most likely location for this to occur would be the western side of the Salt Lake Valley between 08-12Z. This is something to monitor moving through the overnight period.
Next up, the Freeze Warnings. Upgraded the watches to warnings for all zones and added the western Canyonlands zone for a >80% chance of freezing temperatures in these locations. Even in areas not currently expected to reach freezing such as Weber, Davis and Salt Lake Counties, patchy frost will be possible. Those who have vulnerable plants should either cover or bring them indoors.
Finally, with modest cold air advection and 700mb flow impacting the gap area in Washington County, expect wind gusts to 50 mph near canyons including towns such as the aptly named Hurricane and Toquerville. Added a winter weather advisory for this location as well.
Wednesday will feature occasional snow showers across the northern mountains, however, accumulations will be light. Do not anticipate the need to extend the winter storm warning.
.LONG TERM (After 06Z Thursday)...Early Thursday a broad positive tilt trough will extend into the region, with a lobe of the trough gradually cutting off over Utah and slowly moving southwestward thereafter. This feature will then more or less churn somewhere in the UT/AZ/NV/CA border region into the weekend.
In comparison to yesterday, guidance now is leaning in favor of this feature lingering a bit deeper into the weekend or even early next week before ejecting eastward out of the region, though uncertainty is still noted in how exactly the flow evolves.
One of the impacts of this system will be the potential for downslope winds across prone areas in far northern Utah. By Thursday morning, most guidance moves the center of the trough/cutoff low far enough south to begin imparting easterly flow across northern Utah, and around 85% of ensemble members carry some sort of light cold air advection over the terrain (two necessary ingredients). High resolution guidance is just starting to come into view, and suggest downslope winds begin to pick up after 3am or so and peak sometime near or just after sunrise.
Still early, but HRRR does show potential for gusts generally in the 35-50 mph range, primarily in prone areas of eastern Weber/Davis Counties. Thursday night into Friday morning the low becomes more favorably positioned, and ~80% of ensemble members (especially ECM Ens members) show an enhanced cold air advection component over the terrain. As a result, still thinking early Friday on into mid morning Friday or so show the greatest potential for stronger downslope winds. Currently thinking around ~60% chance to see gusts in excess of 45 mph in those typical downslope wind prone areas, and ~15% chance of gusts in excess of 60 mph. Will begin to get a better idea as high resolution guidance comes into view. Depending on the exact position of the low, it looks likely some sort of easterly gradient is maintained Friday night into Saturday morning, but almost all guidance ceases any notable cold advection. Higher uncertainty here, but initial thinking is maybe a few gusts, but probably much more marginal overall.
As the low shifts around overhead or in relatively close vicinity to the forecast region, it will also limit stability and help maintain at least something of an unsettled day to day pattern. In general, expecting isolated to scattered showers (and maybe a thunderstorm or two), largely diurnally driven in nature, and with the highest coverage over the high terrain and adjacent valleys.
Given guidance trending towards the low lingering longer into the weekend, if not early next week, this will likely be the day to day pattern for much of the long term period.
Once the low splits off from the parent trough, initially very cold H7 temperatures will begin to moderate day over day. This will impart a warming trend over the forecast region, with Thursday afternoon highs around 5-10 degrees below climatological normal increasing to near normal by Saturday, and likely slightly above normal by Sunday on into early next week.
AVIATION
KSLC...Scattered rain showers will continue through roughly 01z, with gusty and erratic winds and lowered CIGs to 4000 ft AGL possible near these showers. There is also a 25% chance for thunder over KSLC, as well as graupel. Gusty west- northwesterly winds as high as 40kts will continue until roughly 01-02z. Overnight (~04-12z), a band of lake-effect showers is possible, mainly to the west of KSLC. However, there is still a 30% chance that this band directly impacts the terminal, bringing a transition to snow and low (15%) chance for IFR conditions.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Scattered showers will continue mainly north of KDTA through roughly 03z. These showers will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds and MVFR-IFR conditions (especially at sites above ~6000ft ASL that will receive snow). Lake-effect showers are possible over the western Salt Lake Valley overnight, potentially impacting KU42.
Gusty northwesterly winds will likely decrease after sunset across all but far southern UT (south of KMLF). A weak front pushing through southern UT later this evening will produce a transition to gusty northerly to northeasterly winds overnight. KSGU may waver between gusty northeasterly winds and light westerly winds overnight (40% chance of the lighter winds). There is also a 30% chance that KENV could see gusts exceeding 25kts overnight.
FIRE WEATHER
While the mountain snow showers and valley rain showers will gradually end tonight, the system responsible for this precipitation is going to slowly shift southward and largely remain across the region through the weekend. Sensible weather- wise, this will mean a gradual warming trend as this area of cut- off low pressure weakens, with showers and thunderstorms possible along the higher terrain and adjacent valleys each afternoon and evening into the weekend.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Wednesday for UTZ102-103-106-121-130.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ110>112.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ123.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 340 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A slow moving upper level trough will gradually cut- off from the mean flow across southern Utah through the week. A gradual warming trend is expected...though diurnal showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across the higher terrain and adjacent valleys into the weekend, especially across central and southern Utah.
.SHORT TERM (Through 06Z Thursday)...Mountain snow showers and valley rain showers continue across northern Utah this afternoon.
At times, very gusty winds have been reported with these showers, likely associated with higher momentum mix down and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer in the valleys. Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates a broad, longwave trough remains across the central and western United State. The main forcing with this trough is shifting into the High Plains...however the backedge of the trough will gradually shift south and eventually cut-off from the mean flow by early in the long term forecast period.
Expect showers to gradually end near to after sunset with the exception of a potential period of lake effect south and east of the Great Salt Lake. CAMS are nearly universal in developing a band of transitory precipitation, extending to near Parleys initially, then gradually shift to the Cottonwoods and then western Salt Lake County and eventually diminishing near to after 10-12Z. If the residence time in any one location were to last a few hours and precipitation changes to snow, slushy accumulations would be possible on area roads. The most likely location for this to occur would be the western side of the Salt Lake Valley between 08-12Z. This is something to monitor moving through the overnight period.
Next up, the Freeze Warnings. Upgraded the watches to warnings for all zones and added the western Canyonlands zone for a >80% chance of freezing temperatures in these locations. Even in areas not currently expected to reach freezing such as Weber, Davis and Salt Lake Counties, patchy frost will be possible. Those who have vulnerable plants should either cover or bring them indoors.
Finally, with modest cold air advection and 700mb flow impacting the gap area in Washington County, expect wind gusts to 50 mph near canyons including towns such as the aptly named Hurricane and Toquerville. Added a winter weather advisory for this location as well.
Wednesday will feature occasional snow showers across the northern mountains, however, accumulations will be light. Do not anticipate the need to extend the winter storm warning.
.LONG TERM (After 06Z Thursday)...Early Thursday a broad positive tilt trough will extend into the region, with a lobe of the trough gradually cutting off over Utah and slowly moving southwestward thereafter. This feature will then more or less churn somewhere in the UT/AZ/NV/CA border region into the weekend.
In comparison to yesterday, guidance now is leaning in favor of this feature lingering a bit deeper into the weekend or even early next week before ejecting eastward out of the region, though uncertainty is still noted in how exactly the flow evolves.
One of the impacts of this system will be the potential for downslope winds across prone areas in far northern Utah. By Thursday morning, most guidance moves the center of the trough/cutoff low far enough south to begin imparting easterly flow across northern Utah, and around 85% of ensemble members carry some sort of light cold air advection over the terrain (two necessary ingredients). High resolution guidance is just starting to come into view, and suggest downslope winds begin to pick up after 3am or so and peak sometime near or just after sunrise.
Still early, but HRRR does show potential for gusts generally in the 35-50 mph range, primarily in prone areas of eastern Weber/Davis Counties. Thursday night into Friday morning the low becomes more favorably positioned, and ~80% of ensemble members (especially ECM Ens members) show an enhanced cold air advection component over the terrain. As a result, still thinking early Friday on into mid morning Friday or so show the greatest potential for stronger downslope winds. Currently thinking around ~60% chance to see gusts in excess of 45 mph in those typical downslope wind prone areas, and ~15% chance of gusts in excess of 60 mph. Will begin to get a better idea as high resolution guidance comes into view. Depending on the exact position of the low, it looks likely some sort of easterly gradient is maintained Friday night into Saturday morning, but almost all guidance ceases any notable cold advection. Higher uncertainty here, but initial thinking is maybe a few gusts, but probably much more marginal overall.
As the low shifts around overhead or in relatively close vicinity to the forecast region, it will also limit stability and help maintain at least something of an unsettled day to day pattern. In general, expecting isolated to scattered showers (and maybe a thunderstorm or two), largely diurnally driven in nature, and with the highest coverage over the high terrain and adjacent valleys.
Given guidance trending towards the low lingering longer into the weekend, if not early next week, this will likely be the day to day pattern for much of the long term period.
Once the low splits off from the parent trough, initially very cold H7 temperatures will begin to moderate day over day. This will impart a warming trend over the forecast region, with Thursday afternoon highs around 5-10 degrees below climatological normal increasing to near normal by Saturday, and likely slightly above normal by Sunday on into early next week.
AVIATION
KSLC...Scattered rain showers will continue through roughly 01z, with gusty and erratic winds and lowered CIGs to 4000 ft AGL possible near these showers. There is also a 25% chance for thunder over KSLC, as well as graupel. Gusty west- northwesterly winds as high as 40kts will continue until roughly 01-02z. Overnight (~04-12z), a band of lake-effect showers is possible, mainly to the west of KSLC. However, there is still a 30% chance that this band directly impacts the terminal, bringing a transition to snow and low (15%) chance for IFR conditions.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Scattered showers will continue mainly north of KDTA through roughly 03z. These showers will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds and MVFR-IFR conditions (especially at sites above ~6000ft ASL that will receive snow). Lake-effect showers are possible over the western Salt Lake Valley overnight, potentially impacting KU42.
Gusty northwesterly winds will likely decrease after sunset across all but far southern UT (south of KMLF). A weak front pushing through southern UT later this evening will produce a transition to gusty northerly to northeasterly winds overnight. KSGU may waver between gusty northeasterly winds and light westerly winds overnight (40% chance of the lighter winds). There is also a 30% chance that KENV could see gusts exceeding 25kts overnight.
FIRE WEATHER
While the mountain snow showers and valley rain showers will gradually end tonight, the system responsible for this precipitation is going to slowly shift southward and largely remain across the region through the weekend. Sensible weather- wise, this will mean a gradual warming trend as this area of cut- off low pressure weakens, with showers and thunderstorms possible along the higher terrain and adjacent valleys each afternoon and evening into the weekend.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Wednesday for UTZ102-103-106-121-130.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ110>112.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ123.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAZC COLORADO CITY MUNI,AZ | 19 sm | 13 min | WSW 10G18 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 9°F | 10% | 29.82 |
Cedar City, UT,
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