NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 615 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Pleasant weather for late July expected today, with low humidity and temps in the 80s.

The front that slid through the area yesterday is now well S of the region. Patchy rain or drizzle may continue over coastal NE NC and far SE VA for the next hour or so. Otherwise, clouds are clearing quickly from NW to SE as drier air pushes into the region. Cooler this morning with temps ranging through the 60s (lower 70s at the immediate coast).

High pressure ridges down into the area today, with a broad trough swinging through aloft. With afternoon dew points in the low-mid 60s (upper 50s possible during peak heating inland), it'll be noticeably more comfortable compared to our weather of late. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 80s under a mostly sunny sky. Model soundings suggest there could be some SCT fair wx cumulus given a well-mixed afternoon boundary layer, especially across the Piedmont and western MD Eastern Shore. Lows tonight look to be in the low-mid 60s for most, but could even see some upper 50s (!) in the typically cooler spots inland.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant conditions continue Sunday, though it will be warmer.

- Becoming more humid Monday, with a slight chance for an afternoon/evening shower or storm.

On Sunday, the trough that passed over us today will close off into an upper low offshore. A weak sfc low still looks to develop and more toward the New England coast Sunday night. Still not expecting any impact locally from this feature and dry conditions will continue across our area. Forecast highs Sunday are a few degrees warmer than Saturday and in the mid-upper 80s, with readings near 90 F possible N and NW of Richmond. Lows in the mid-upper 60s.

The upper low may remain NE of the area Monday. Sfc high pressure also situates well offshore, with S/SW return flow likely to push some moisture back into the area (aftn dew points increase into the upper 60s to around 70). General trend in the latest guidance has been for a drier forecast, though, with a less-defined lee trough.
Have a dry forecast for NE NC and maintained 20% PoPs for most of our VA counties (30% across the far W/NW). While afternoon temps warm into the upper 80s or lower 90s, sounding profiles show only marginal CAPE with isothermal temp profiles around 700 mb. Thus, the thinking would be only showers with perhaps an isolated storm. Low- end chance or slight chance PoPs continue Monday night with overnight lows around 70 F.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming somewhat unsettled by mid week but drier than the past couple of weeks.

- Afternoon high temperatures return to the mid-upper 90s by the end of the work week.

The forecast in the mid-late week period looks quite repetitive with diurnal chances of showers/storms each day. The synoptic pattern will be characterized by broad troughing across the eastern CONUS with westerly or NW flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure remains offshore with a sfc lee trough setting up each day. General thinking is convection sets up across the W in the afternoon and slowly spreads E in the evening hours. However, it is difficult to time subtle features in the flow aloft which could favor slightly higher coverage one day over the other.
Have therefore painted broad 20-40% PoPs for most areas Tuesday- Friday. It is interesting to note that precip fields from most of the global models show MCS activity every day developing in the Midwest states, spreading E/SE into the overnight hours.
While most of this would be expected to stay or decay W of the area, will need to keep an eye on this as we get closer in case any of these act to spark any downstream convective activity.
Either way, aerial QPF looks much lighter than this past unsettled week and the days 1-7 WPC QPF forecast has 1" or less for most of the area. Of course, locally higher amounts will be likely in any storms.

Highs Tuesday in the mid 80s with a good amount of clouds around, with upper 80s-around 90 F for Wednesday. Shortwave ridging/rising upper heights look to develop by Thursday and Friday, suggesting a more pronounced warming trend. The blended guidance has highs in the low 90s Thursday and low-mid 90s Friday and see no reason to deviate from this. Overnight lows average in the lower 70s through the extended period.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 620 AM EDT Saturday...

Prevailing VFR is expected through the 12z TAF period. Brief light rain could still occur at ECG through about 13-14z.
Otherwise, clouds are clearing quickly from NW to SE this morning and expecting very good flying wx today. Could see some FEW-SCT aftn CU (bases 5-6k ft AGL), especially inland.
Light/calm winds this morning become NE 5-10 kt this aftn (10-15 kt at ECG).

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persist through the weekend with drier conditions behind the cold front. Isolated showers/storms may return inland Monday, with higher confidence in a somewhat unsettled pattern mid to late week.

MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Tranquil marine conditions prevail this weekend.

- Benign marine conditions continue much of next week outside of any afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

1023mb high pressure is centered N of the Mid-Atlantic region over upstate NY early this morning. Meanwhile, an old front and weak low pressure are located off the Carolina coast. The wind is NE 5-10kt north and 10-15kt south. Seas range from ~2ft north to 3-4ft south, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure remains centered N of the region today into tonight, and then settles into the region Sunday. The wind will initially remain NE 5-10kt north to 10-15kt south today, and then shift to N 5-10kt tonight into early Sunday, before becoming sea-breeze dominant by Sunday aftn. High pressure settles offshore Monday and remains off the Southeast coast through at least later next week. The wind becomes SSW, mainly 10-15kt for the ocean and Bay, and 5-10kt elsewhere. Seas will remain 3-4ft initially off the Currituck Outer Banks this morning, before subsiding to ~3ft by this aftn. Otherwise, seas will mainly be 2-3ft Sunday into much of next week, although seas could briefly build to 3-4ft Monday night N of Parramore Is. with a slight enhancement in the SSW wind. Waves in the Ches. Bay will mainly be 1 to occasionally 2ft for much of the period, and locally 2-3ft in the mouth of the Bay this morning. Chances of primarily aftn/evening showers/tstms return Tuesday through later next week.

A moderate risk for rip currents will be continued for the southern beaches today as the wind remains NE 10-15kt, with nearshore waves ~3ft. A low risk returns Sunday as the wind becomes light and sea- breeze with nearshore waves subsiding to ~2ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.